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Honored Advisor

Feed Yard Talk 12/30

Thats right FYT will be back tonight for a nightly romp through marketing opportunities.

Overnights are trading as we peck, and both corn and beans are trying to tie another 3 cents onto todays final.  Its neck and neck but beans seem determined to outsprint corn into the first turn.  Seldom see overnights this active.

I'm loading the overhead waiting on a late truck to a feedlot that is struggling through these three day weekends.  Government regulation means that not many new lots can be built to size so existing ones expand.  It is wild to see those feed mills that were built for 20-30,000 head capacities struggle to feed the 70 to 100,000 they face these days.

I'll wake in my chair somewhere around midnight and report what I see. Or better yet tell me what you see.

10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

Wow, that’s a lot of beef!

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

Hey SW

I think you need to reverse your picture...

 

Of course since you put that up prices have done just the opposite, maybe don't jinx it and leave it backwards?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

OOOOOHHHH Hobby, that is not a nice trick to play.  Naturally I read your comment first and hurried the screen on to see the sky falling .... but we are sitting at $4.79 and 13.13 --- but your right very volatile with beans being as high as 13.20 and as low as 12.99     24+K trades is more than midnight 

I expected things to trade off today and take profits ...... adjusting accounts to finish out the year with a little correction     heavy breathing. (as I intend to the rest of the night)

Things I noticed today

1.  feeder cattle finally sold off --not sure how I would explain that but it is understandable...... The end of the year may have a few selling out of positions seeing higher feed prices ahead.  Who knows.... it is another bureaucratic vacation the next 4 days..... 

2   Paying higher prices does have a lag time and beef is profiting for while yet

3.  Rationing corn in Argentina and Russia is back in the press.....  near worthless information but might be true

4    Daily as I load corn out ----- I am reminded of how marginal the quality of this crop was.  with several wind events later in the growing season and a scattering of hail here and there.... we had enough damage to the plant that fumonicin is present all through it in varying degrees.  We tried three loads into the hog conglomerate on the way to many of the cattle.  All three rejected... (they have a tollerance level lower than cattle and I am told Dairy is lower yet)  It is not a dockage issue.  The loads left and headed to the feed yard we sell to every day.  Not uncommon in our harsh climate.

 

Well the other side of midnight on the 31st....... last day of this demon possessed year   --- corn is sitting at $4.80 and beans are 14 up  at $13.145.    I am going back to those heavy breathing exercises ..... we will see if usda dumps their corn before the last trade of 2020...

have a warm night y'all.

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

There`s going to be some sharpened pencils at the January Green Tag sales, what worked with $3 corn doesn`t with $5 corn, unless packers want to subsidize their fat bids with their $500/head profits.  Finishing hog expenses also higher. 

Wow 70,000 head feedlots.  Around here I`m impressed with 1100 head on slats in 2 monoslopes.   

 

  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

Not much cattle feeding in this area.

Those big yards are impressive. I've sold hundreds of Stover bales into the one at Hoxie Kansas (60,000 at the time)

4° here this morning, foggy and ***** frost on everything.

Visited with an eplant buyer yesterday.

Asked at what point they'd slow down or stop. Said they'd be" last man standing" still grinding corn.

Said they'd back off bids as the other 3 they compete with slow down or go idle. They added 3¢ to Basis Tuesday -6 now.

The feed mill and the train terminal are not far behind them on bids and a train was loaded yesterday. 440,000 left the area.

4.74 & 12.96 here before the open

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

BA   --------- within 65 miles of our location (kansas side north of hooker okla.) there are at least 20 of those off the top of my head we have sold to over the years-- probably over 40 in reality ---- give or take 15 will be well over 100K capacity.   Each of those needing 16-25 semi loads of corn a day to set the table.  Only part of the total cattle feeding area.

On the way this morning the truck that leaves here will go by one of the 2 Seaboard hog feed mills that keep the kill floor at Guymon okla running.   Not to mention all the dairys that have moved here from the regulations of the west coast.  I don't know how to describe the size of the dairies..

yet it is one of the most sparcely populated areas in the US.... I have sat on a sprayer in the oklahoma panhandle and felt so remote.  ------ It is why we have a good basis and we spend all that basis trying to pump the water you get from the sky.  It is all going to take a little wisdom to maintain in the future.... Feeding industry hasn't got many other places to go by regulation.  Watching the fat trucks file into the packers is amazing ----- like people at airports ariving for their flights yet far more organized they pull in on an arrival time schedule.   

One of those desolate regions you drive through and miss if your just driving.

Many of the early signals of a problem in supply or supply chain show up first with the corn buyers for the yards.... I still thing that knee jerk stop in the ethanol production in spring put some shock waves through the feeding industry... Things change when supply is not dependable..

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Senior Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

SW  - is  the  speed  limit  still 45 mph,  east of Guyman , on  US 54,  past the Seaboard plant - ? Smiley LOL

The question goes through my mind, when those corn acres , MIGHT, revert back to milo - or will it  be be bring your water along with you when traveling through  - ?   

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

Cotton acres have exploded in that area.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Feed Yard Talk 12/30

yes it is and until you drive by when the pork packagers change shifts and start dodging into the trucks, it doesn't make sense because its pretty clear and down hill.

yes cotton is on lots of acres... feed for bales or silage, milo, finally has a market--maybe,   triticale for dairy and wheats multiple uses..... lots of graze out wheat or just cover crop for cotton.   Cotton definitely takes less water.

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