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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Feedyard Talk. 2/21. 11:22 pm

Futures are active in the early hours of the nite time session.

Wheat (HR) may21       +4.   at  $6.425.    with 110k contracts out there on open interest.  yet only 695 have traded so far.(telling us  there isn't much old crop left out there unhedged.) most likely

               New crop July21     at. +4.75.  at $647.     (local elevator basis is -30 pretty good historically).  

comments..---- After the winter punishment (past two days have touched 40 afternoon and 22 lows) wheat has dried off the tiny bit of cover it had and is facing the sun with pretty good color most every field I have seen, other than the few planted late.  Cows are waddling like bowling balls w legs away from the tank after filling up on water that isn't near frozen.  And wow they are soaking up the sun........ with the blankets and tanning oil.  Getting ready for spring calving season.

Soybeans .....   +6   at  13.86.    earlier +11.    Pretty good activity with 11.5 K contracts traded

 

Corn        +6.5.    at    $ 5.485.      steady up.      with 15.8k contracts traded so far.

comments ...   that refills the loss on Friday pretty quickly..... Most of the markets we sell into "Feeders"..... weathered the cold as far as I know.    We love our coal and natural gas so the area had very little power loss.... just got a little cool......... for a few days.......... one water line in by the grain storage froze the day after the "Big Chill" and thawed today........ 48 inches in the ground.  Trucks scheduled tomorrow and still getting calls looking for corn.

 

Cattle...... feeders.... 142.675    .went back up almost a dollar Friday    Fats similar....  at 123.675.   The down futures last week was probably from the weather slows

Cotton...   up again. by   +1.44.    sitting right now at 91.92.        Confirmation that the cotton harvest was short. Cotton is doing everything it can to hold on to acres up here in the fringe north of southern Ks.    Grain sorghum, cotton, corn, sunflowers and wheat all will be seen on drylands in the area.  for once there is some profit potential instead of betting on the least cost crop.  And the recent land sale provided some historic yield data on irrigation..... the cotton irrigated record shows 3.5 to 4 bales per acre can be possible.  Imagine that 175o lbs of cotton at even 80 cents..($1400 per acre) competes pretty well with 230 bushel corn at $5. ($1150).   And requires less water.... expenses similar IMO.  Risky this far north but enticing.

 

 

Land sale...... some comments on Large high value farm sales ...........

1 You get a good look at data and info because when your squeezing the bidders for the very most........ya sell it.   yield history, water history,  equipment maintenance, great mapping and arial photography gives us a good look at what is possible across the road.  

2.  Attracting the outside investors is critical for large tracts......... So locals can and do get squeezed out.  41 tracts, 14 buyers, 3 local buyers got three tracts.

3.  The format of this sale (computer modified for maximum sales).   absentee buyers better know what their buying.  In this case you better "sleep with this girl before ya marry her" --- just saying that fancy picture doesn't always say it all.

That's about as much risk as I'm gonna take tonight.

And for once check into a small contract or two before ya plant this year....... these prices are nice and this time......... I don't see record production of anything for the next couple of years..... just think we have stretched out people and equipment beyond expectations for a while.

2 Replies
k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 2/21. 11:22 pm

USDA     Kansas   cash  fed  cattle  report  cash  $114    or  $180  in  the  beef  -  -  -

Negotiated  Cash ,  week  to  date 2 - 19 - 21  , 6652 head   - week  ago 8463 head  -  year  ago ''' 19, 547 '''  explains  the trend  of  formulated  ownership  - possibly  -  ?   

BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 2/21. 11:22 pm

Maybe I`m the last one in the telephone partyline getting this news out, but Mar 15 the CME group is raising the position contract limits for corn, beans, wheat and other comods.   (33,000 contracts to 57,000 contracts on corn).   A ocean vessel leaving the US, the grain and perhaps the destination and ownership could change 3 times before it finally docks.  

The increase in contract limits could really push the markets exponentially  (good or bad) post March 15th.  

Well, now you know all I know, have a profitable day everyone.