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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

futures overbite(computer doesn't like my use of nite in the run-on word for trade during the night, so I leave it because it seems somehow appropriate)---- lets take a look.  Haven't given it a look for at least an hour...

Cattle-- the close to the table kind.... looked great on review this morning ... no social issues at all.  

Fats ..... still standing solidly in the 119 area with 118.975  down -0.675

Feeders  trying for 142 at 141.725. after being at 142..55 earlier in the evening.... down -0.35

Hogs.....  Fat Hogs...(pork cutouts- might not mean culls) because they're up 0.725  at 98.00

 while as we might have guessed the good looking Lean hogs are bringing just  88.75  Up 0.42

---------------------

Grains 

Corn is  UP.  1.0 at  5.35. near the high for the evening so far

HRW..... (the part that survived the wind today)   is down -3.2. @ 6.132.   Was even earlier

Oats ...... are up  1.6 @ $3.862. with a high earlier at $3.90. (. If your in fear of a down day or two.... just think no more than a few months ago would have been the highest feed grain on the board with that number!

 

Proteins

Beans    are down -2.6. @ 14.07.      after being up 3 earlier this evening.....   trade in all the grains is active.  

SW area --- Grain Sorghum continues to have a strong basis running $1 over corn for new crop harvest contracts. That will move dry land acres and some irrigated acres

Cotton took the hardest hit on the early week smack down falling from the 90's to south of 85.  Tonite it is on it's own rally up 1.47 at  86.69.    Marketing issues will still take acres to other crops in 2021.

=======

Wind blew near all day so It's march. possible rain over the weekend...... will make everything look better.

Tractors running steady getting ground ready for planters,  Sprinklers getting prepped .    Smiles a little healthier this year.

Obits telling us the February cold was harsh.... lost another group of former ranchers and farmers.  We will miss them even the not so famous ones.

On to turn around thursday  ====

 

 

Gabe Brown article about testifying before congress.......... well eventually he will go back as a protester when he figures out they didn't hear a word he said.  That unification message over something he thinks they all want ............ well I'm glad it make the magazine so some of us out here can remember it.

We will all get a fresh crop of new words with new definitions from congress............... record breaking crop as usual.

 

Thanks Gabe you didn't tarnish us one bit........ we will remember that.

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7 Replies
lsc76cat
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

Snow, hail, thunder and tornado warnings yesterday in MN.  All with some strong gusty winds.  Old saying would have us getting first frost September 10th.  Luv March🙂

Drove 20 miles to the nw around 5 pm and temp dropped 11 degrees.  Fog on the lake ice looked like "smoke on the water".

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

GameStop  seems  to  cover  several  topics now  days ,  with  tactics  that  seem  to  startle  some  status  quo  players , that holding  a  125% + short  position ,  suddenly ,  is  far  from  comical  - - -

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BA Deere
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

It got to 72° here in Algona yesterday.   My sources say.. (Ha who am I kidding, I don`t have sources) but a marketing message I get on my phone says the drop in grain prices was due to that damned rain that went through.   I don`t think it was over 1/10" here, heard Colorado places expect 90" of snow, they can keep that! 

Don`t want to jinx things, but if this keeps up, there`ll be planters rolling before April 12th insurance date, which I`m sure the market will find beeeeearish.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

Until  July ,  when  the  bears  enter  hibernation  - maybe ?     

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

Those folks in Brazil are running out of time to pull the rabbit out of the hat.

 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

On  those  ""  formulated  fed  cattle "" ,  what  %  of  there  feed  ration  is  paper - commodity  corn ,  if   &  when  those  ground  piles are  NO  LONGER available  -  ? 

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard Talk. 3/11. 1:oo am

honest answer at best ..... but not enough real knowledge to say......

IMO... I don't know............Here is what I do know

1.  I know that most of the farm storage supply is nearing the end locally.  I was told that by two different trucking company drivers this week.  

2.   Between Plains ks and Liberal Ks there is some great water and good land..... in that 40 miles there were, as usual, 25+- ground piles led by Plains Coop at 8 ----- there is now 6 total and going down.... plains still has 2. arkalon Ethanol is half gone with 2.  Hooker Okla has 1.5   the terminal west of hooker is on the last one now

3.--- Brokers , (gavilon, Andersons, Scouler, etc etc) were in this harvest from before harvest began offering strong basis bids or cash contracts.... ------ and remained strong competitive bidders through harvest.  Now they are offering nearly the same basis on new crop '21 corn contracts.  They expect tight corn supplies.  ---- I have not experienced this strong a harvest market in 70 years.   Farmers here for decades have built some storage to capture a relationship with well funded feed yards.  This year we shipped 25% direct from the field to the yard.... on strong basis.  Never done that before... The farm storage is to capture JFM or later deliveries with premium after the harvest lows historically.

4.    Where are we in July?   Got me   we are eating those traditional bushels now....... Trains from either LA or Mexico have access to the area.......as well as Iowa ..... we will see.   Usually they use your excess first (and the cheaper northern corn).  I am assuming the big wind in Iowa drew this reaction..... 

 

We raise a big crop on average........... but just maybe our demand crop has grown faster.