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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

opened up  1 corn and up 4 beans but looks like an uphill pull tonite.

I'm checking in early cause I am in a truck at 6am headed to one of my favorite feed yards in Guymon okla.  

I paid upgrade for the air seat which means I gotta stay awake.   The only way you can handle the bumpy spots over pony creek or the beaver river....  I gotta sleep to earn that noon ride to school and come back for the return ride to the cows.

Today we were half way to school and conversation was going with crew high on sanitizer.  Then I thought of something I thought grandma needed to know and blurted it out like I might forget it........ well it happens.   Then suddenly from the back seat came a clear "Hey, I was talking here".         silence while I clinched my lips and stared at the calves out on wheat to the south..... trying to and holding my laugh with a vision of this little guy pounding a car hood in Midnight Cowboy along side Dustin Hoffman. .......... He is small and probably couldn't be seen over the hood but the vision was precious as we got our stuff together and  "listened up".     He led thoughts the last 10 miles ............ can't remember the subject but still chuckling over that Hoffman quote.........(near quote)

I could make three to guymon and get this job done quicker but I just can't give up my second job.

 

Marketing wise --- corn new crop has seperated itself from old crop enough to make some hesitation but with good basis we can still get $5 area for new............... but one thing is impossible to not promote    Milo or Grain Sorghum... The kansas backup crop(that would be kansas primary crop if it had a consistant market)... is in a position its been in few times.   Right now at the local coop new crop corn can be priced at $4.76 (+24 cents)  I am sure that is tempting for some.... but milo on the same board new crop is $5.01 a bushel.... not a hundred weight.   

When I think about how many years milo has not had a place that wanted to buy it. (or people who wanted to raise it).  In the early 60's and late 50's we sold it to the poultry industry in Arkansas --- but in recent years farm stored milo had a hard time finding a bid that wasn't highly discounted.

It tempts me to try to make this next year a good milo year .  It is not the replacement for corn if you have good water, but in western ks.... if it rains three times in the summer (one of those in August) 80 bushel dry land is a pretty easy cheap crop.  It is hard to manage lots of acres but its a profit on tough acres.

I think its hard to pass up a solid price on the first 1/3 of the planted acres.

Hard to sound picky when it is so good to see prices that fix a cash flow all across the board.   It won't last forever but right now we in the US seem to be short of grain...... 

I was sitting in the feedyard unloading when the young grain buyer for the same yard owner called on the cell phone to ask if we were going to have any corn that didn't already have a home.......today..... Feb 3....  I said I don't think so and  told her who to call to know for sure.   she said " that's the answer I am getting from most everybody"

I read today that usda is hyping the Brazilian corn crop ....... its going to take a pretty good price to buy the real thing at Guymon Okla if it gets harvested in Brazil.

 

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8 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

sw, I really like your late night reports. I hope you’ll keep  them coming.

As far as the USDA hyping up the Brazil corn crop,  corn planted late and then running out of water to finish is not a recipe that should be hyped. At least, not hyped to the good side. 😉

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

Time to roll

Im sorry about blaming usda for all of that ........ fcstone was the origin of the story that basically said brazils corn production has increased in the last decade......

Always irks me a bit when you never see how much demand has risen over the last decade.

Maybe demand is harder to speculate on.

Corn is finishing strong at +5 overbite as mike noted in three big things.  I aint arguing with this computer. those apple folks think the markets are an overbite when I type an n and that might be a good description of it.  Either way the overnights are intended to make cbot fat.

On into the hours of the "Twilight Zone"..........  You still on the road roaringT.

I kind of miss old Missouri Tiger.... last I heard he was counting how many times he had been blocked on twitter.  Twitter that social get together run by the Lenin look alike.  Bet he is selling and counting these cheap dollars with this market.

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

SW  - Maybe  that  rail  siding  at  the  feedmill  on  the  east  side  of  Guymon  could  be  a  24  /  7  grain  receiving , import  reload  facility  to  accommodate  those  feedlot neighbors  -  gentleman like agreement helping  hand  -  -  -

U. P .  has  numerous  unit- train  load  outs  in  corn  country -  -  -

Will  steam  flake  milo  make  a  come  back  -  maybe,  or  will  feedlots  migrate  back  to  the  corn - ?         

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

Yes there at least three locations that could 

ADM's Terminal rail unitrain loader/unloader is just 15 miles northeast on the tracks 

Seaboards feedmill has a rail potential and at least one at guymon....  

Im not sure the guys I am hauling to might have one at their protein mill or the mill there in town.

Henry C or Hitch 1 dont have rail to my knowledge....

-----------

My point though is I know traders and pundents seem to be able to download corn from anywhere to anywhere ......so three extra truckloads in Brazil will keep the price down in Etter  Texas........ I just think that thought makes no sense and  it works the other way.... 

If we are needing to use Brazil for summer backup or supply in the area, even just in theory,  around their kill floor in Cactus, Texas, it should not be a corn price depressing factor.  It should mean the freight and bidding against China is going to guarantee high prices ...... question is how high...... we don't seem to be that high yet.

Another source would probably be sending it back up the rail from old mexico...... where we normally send grain south.

But either way the rail lines we are tied to is a single line that is overloaded..... Trains sit on sidings from central kansas down to dalhart tex.... waiting their turn.  It runs x hours east bumper to bumper and then x hours west in the same fashion.  Iowa gets cars of DDGs and the like in to the ADM Terminal for distribution and occasionally grain goes out from there to get big export orders filled out west, but for the most part containerized shipping to the interior east dominates that line........

The southwest passage line is overcrowded now is what i mean   and  ....... Coal has its own line from the northern rockies to Amarillo but that is pretty busy too.  It takes a "load" of coal to keep all those wind chargers looking good and backed up.

For decades we have been growing economically and internationally....... the reverse example is the boxed meats and container meat distribution....... when it goes to foreign markets (and a lot does)  it does not get cheaper... and we shouldn't expect it to.... Grain Talkers just talk and seldom sound logical.

 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

Installing  double  track  from,   Santa Rosa  to  K. C.  ,  is  a  stretch  on the,   wish  list  -  -  -

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

the 4 lane divided highway(54) I drive sw of hooker to guymon  has been in construction for longer than I can remember.

Yellow freight and others left the route in the 1970 or 80's because 54 was so bad and busy.... finally in the 90's they decided to make it 4 lane divided .......that work still isn't done and portions of the new are in bad repair before the final gets in place.  That is just Dalhart to Liberal.   Tyrone to liberal is still not done   10 miles    Hooker west hasn't been done but maybe 2 years and one lane is potholed already.   It is three different states and last on everyones budget..... 

That rail line has had one head on and a couple other messups just in the last 5 years...... ..... then its got the big bridge over the cimarron river east of liberal that 1300 feet over river bed and a very long river valley .  after three previous wood bridges collapsed.  Sampson of the Cimarron doesnt look that strong these days.  And two rails ain't feasible.  (one spooky memory for a few kids around is the little inspection walkway under the structure-- a long walk that is impossible to cross without a train rumbling over ya)  Sampson will be in business until we drop a train into the bottom if they handle it like the road.

This sw passage to wherever has to be the most heavy traveled unimportant transportation route in the US.  There have been comments at times that Liberal should build stock yards west of National so the cattle can be driven in on that kill floor schedule.  They would need to close off the 83 overpass for a crossing route over the Railroad.  Its the only overpass I know of in that area..... Bucklin east 90 miles has an underpass to route cattle into Dodge but thats a bit of detour for cattle at Guymon who could go through an underpass just east of Hooker..  Then we'd need to figure out a way to get hogs across at Guymon and my mind slips off into a scene of herding cats. 

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k-289
Senior Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

A  derailment  clean-up,  east  of  Liberal ,  remnants  of  a  wind  event , a few  years  back ,  was interesting  venture - - -

Double  track  on  the  BNSF,   Kiowa  to  K  C , being  a  thorn  in  the  foot  of  US  54  UP  track  expansion  -  -  -       

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Feedyard talk 2/3 11pm Upward momentum is a slower grind.

I didnt understand the double track from kiowa..... actually on south a little bit....... was that put in for oil?  Although that is not a refinery location...... but if it were grain based why not go to Enid instead of toward Alva?

It is definitely the south center of the wheat breadbasket but......... Enid has all the storage but should have a rail to Catoosa for closer access to gulf traffic.

 

East of liberal derail by wind..... It can happen here..... Not sure I have ever seen one at Sampson.  Hard to imagine why it wouldn't.

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