Feedyard talk 9/30. 9:15 am .......knocking 2022 in the head (harvest.... and more)

[sw363535]

Well its Friday sept 30, on the eve of the October witching month when we have to listen to the witches without conservative voices labeling those with as Fascist, evil, etc.  That would be those who fight for the right to kill the unborn labeling those who love family and community as radicals..........it is the witching time of year because the F word hasn't existed in the world anywhere for Well over 50 years, and in reality 75 years.  Name calling to win an election and hold on to power when most young voting Americans haven't got a clue what the word means........organizing a society in which a government controls the lives of the people and media, in which people are not allowed to disagree with the government. 

IN Markets,  we see some changes occurring in the commodities.  Lumber is dropping thanks to interest rates and the promise of more(interest rates)  visions of the 1980's.

Corn is rapidly leaving the fields of sw as we continue to realize what yields do in a drought.  Usda is doing a study but our tests show a reduction in yield of anything from 35 to 50% from expected yields.... that interprets to a reduction of 40 to 100 bushels per acre.  We are relying on that area in southern Minnesota, where they feed the hungry children, to make up the difference.

In SW region the basis rose again this week and elevators are now paying $1.45 over December futures.  Positively an indicator of the harvest disappointment.

An even stronger indicator is the local coop (a branch of a Coop that covers nearly all of Oklahoma and portions of Texas panhandle and southern Kansas), who normally moves corn into their own storage locations for winter sale to feedygrds, is moving trucks outbound steadily, every one going direct to feeders across the area.  The scramble for grain that is driving the basis. ---- opposite of normal........ when cheap corn is picked up as the absentee land owners cash in.

Our fields last year averaged 240 bu/a.   So far averages will be in the 160 range. actually less since dry land crops that normally average 60 bu/a are a very solid 0 bu/a........... and 10 to 15% of the acres of irrigation became silage to a few dairies.

Stack on top of this the acres in this region that have the water to produce good irrigated crops continues to decline to very small areas that I am fortunate to be located in.

Western Kansas south through the Texas panhandle are in Harvest disaster.  Yet we continue to export beef steaks to the kingdom of DC where another of those "Let them eat cake" reports will come from today.  

Beans ---yes we raise beans too...... all fell victim to the "not enough water for everyone" reality.  Few have been tested yet.  Since it got late water it is still not ready.  The tests say about half of normal yield.

Wheat ---- working on the next disaster..... is getting planted on acres than have water to get it up.  But Millions of acres sit waiting for rain in the area from Amarillo Texas to the Platte river in portions of 5 states.  Naturally usda will say that has full potential of a record production.

Wind....... stopped blowing in July and has been absent since.  But it will come. 

Rain........ 2-3 inches in August is the highlight of the last 15 months.... a few showers in the spring between 70 mph windstorms so we have recorded just over 6.5 inches in nearly 16 months.  So when the hurricane stops showing us how foolish it is to move millions to Florida, maybe one of those can move into the Gulf of Mexico so we can make bread this next year.... 2022 is toast.

Just saying...... Grains should be in short supply for many months 

[Hobbyfarmer]

Minus 10¢ or even worse basis here on corn.

-25 on beans at ADM 

[k-289]

Lexington  radio ,  showing  zip 73942 - Guymon feedmill  corn  bid  of  $8.39   +  1.61  =  =  =  

[Hobbyfarmer]

local train loader ... $6.64 close today.

Come and get it...

[clayton58]

Sw, the wheat going into the ground may well turn into a disaster. We don’t know but there certainly is not much reserve moisture to go on. But it’s going into enough moisture to come up. I’m afraid we run out of moisture before we run out of acres to seed though. Seems like irrigated wheat acres will be up this year. Trying to stretch the water across too much corn caught up with guys this year. On the other hand, irrigated wheat this year was pretty much a bust too. So what is a fellow going to do?  

[timetippingpt]

All true but remember the price of grain is set by spec money flows. Corn could easily be down a dollar in the next 3 weeks and then recover the whole $1 and more in December when Europe grows cold.

The FED will likely intervene Monday to prevent a paper asset crash, but is the FED big enough? We will see I guess. This link pretty much tells the story that you won't hear on corporate media.

https://www.armstrongeconomics.com/world-news/geopolitical/wests-desperate-play-for-war-blowing-up-t...

[sw363535]

289----  That is accurate.....  the basis I quoted is the lowest and easiest available.... the local coops

The feed mill at Guymon is considered an end user...... basis there is middle of the road.   Feedyards and Dairies are higher.  At least covering freight(feed mill is 40 miles, etc).  The feed yards we use are 50 to 60 miles -- getting into Texas creates higher basis.  I am quite sure corn can be contracted for +$2.    We once delivered 600 acres of corn to Spearman Texas (70 miles for a similar basis improvement when the local elevator monopoly was forcing a negative basis on ground pile storage and forcing its use. seemed like a big deal when corn was$2.40)

[sw363535]

Time ...... the second time I have read that article and both times it runs through my mind with a pro Russian accent.  But the one point that is sincerely dangerous crept in with cunning..... The true danger in this stuff is the climate crisis fanatics(As action figures or as useable decoys).  The reason I can't let go and accept the air of insanity that runs through the socialist educators and politicians these days lies in the fact that it seems to be the imaginary hill they are determined to have us all die on.  No need for the real science when we can create a computer model that predicts it and declare it proof by "new" science.  ---- beyond that -----real scientific proof seems to be the key to pushing climate worshipers over the edge into human hate and total destruction.  Their key to power over the world is faulty at best and we should have seen this for the hoax it may be when they started pushing young girls toward the edge of the volcano.  "Never Trumpers" can easily turn into "Never Churchers" and never Males or ........... Merit badges for killing rather than protesting.  All the while the temp and sea levels don't go as predicted...... just rushes the desire for the end is near Climate Koolaide.

These are in fact very dangerous times and the folks in the US who should have negated this tension have promoted it.

The more I see the hate for fossil fuels the more I recognize the amazing resource they continue to be.  The electric model is very shaky theory.  With problems ignored.

[Hobbyfarmer]

Went for a local driveabout this AM.

Saw decent looking crops, but the majority was subpar.

Got a local 40something organic weed grower. Had heard he didn't fare too well this year.

Not necessarily true if he could find a market for "porcupine eggs"  very hard to see the intended crop of beans anywhere,  all his corn has been mowed.

A neighbor of mine that was giving it a go has evidently given it up after last year.

My opinion is that the "greenies and non GMO " crowd should have to live by their beliefs. First to starve and freeze.  This in not one of their computer games, No do overs.