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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Few items..........

http://www.dtnprogressivefarmer.com/dtnag/common/link.do?symbolicName=/free/news/template1&paneConte...

 

http://www.agrimoney.com/news/deere-doubts-forecasts-of-jump-in-us-corn-sowings--4166.html

 

http://www.soybeansandcorn.com/news/Feb15_12-Brazil-Sugar-Ethanol-Sector-Needs-R$-156-Billion-in-Inv...

 

BrazilianGrain João Carlos Kopp
 
now we have a 110ºF across #RGDS without Rain latter seeds #SOY Burn and we loss last hope! #BRA #SA #DROUGTH
 

 

 

 

looks like there are some others questioning 164, 94, and 14...........brazil will likely continue to import our fuel.............SA soya still shrinking.............port trouble in SA............

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7 Replies
Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: Few items..........

I think most will question those numbers (94 164 14)  But if we plant say 95.5 million we only need about 159 to get to 14 billion.  Thats not far fetched at all. 

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Few items..........

nearly a tie for the second highest nat avg in history.........highest corn acres in history............highest corn crop in history........

 

seems far fetched to me............

 

also, remember that percent harvested for grain will likely go down as acres go up, just like last year...........traditional 92% was a good middle of the road number..........last year it was 90.8%..........so its probably closer to 91.5% or less...........thus to get 14B at 159 nat avg you are talking about 96.2M acres planted..................

 

you think we are going to plant 96.2M acres and get 159.............not sure even the most bearish guy out there believes that..........but maybe............

 

at the end of the day acres are just like inputs when it comes to production.............those last few acres or inputs doesn't always mean MORE bushels............

 

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Doug N
Veteran Contributor

Re: Few items..........

I used 92% harvested.  I don't think those numbers are far fetched at all.  I'm not saying they are likely but with a decent summer weather pattern I think they are feasible.  I do believe if we get over 95 million acres of corn in the ground that beans will be shorted and could push prices higher.

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jonnybegood
Contributor

Re: Few items..........

    Is it posible to make 14 b.? sure if the stars line up and the corn gods smile on us. But; I think all the dirt that can be farmed in the I states is being farmed. New acres will come from the west and north. Not saying they can,t farm there, just that the level of risk is MUCH higher, and expected production is much less. On a marginal basis yeilds will decline as acerage expands. I think ever the bears  will concide that.

   

    COC acres will further drag on averages down,speaking for my self I will not expand my COC at all. Yeild drag and higher expences will put a bigger brake on COC than many think.  Just my 2 cents.

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idalivered
Advisor

Re: Few items..........

I hate to be a downer, but doug makes a conceivable argument for a 14 billion crop.. One development I've heard more about recently is the availability of seed. I guess I was ignoring this issue. there will be seed, but not first choice(or 2nd or 3rd). As far as the yield drag on coc, I'm not so sure it's so bad...long time coc guys here in iowa and minnesota are pretty successful at tweaking full potential from coc yields. I raise some coc every year and while not always my best very respectable. I guess I'll tell you in about 6 months. Missouri tiger, if you want to come to north iowa for that steak you just as well, now. good odds for you and I hope i'm busy when we know for sure.

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Few items..........

I got a letter from Renze seeds, stating that if I need any more seed corn, to order it now. The letter states that Minnesota Public Radio said that Syngenta's seed crop was short by about 25% this year, and Pioneer's was similar.  My cousin sells Dekalb, and said they had some bad greensnap in a few pivot irrigated seed corn fields in Nebraska, as well.  I guess some districts are OK, and others will be pretty short of some varieties of seed.  I guess in some districts, Pioneer is actually telling farmers they are out of some varieties, and the local dealers are  told it is OK to - and this is a direct quote from the letter - "tell their customers they should try another seed company to supply the hybrid that best fits a customer's needs and interests".

By all accounts, there will be ENOUGH seed to go around, but with a 25% cut in what appears to be the newest, or best varieties (or having to use leftover seed from previous years), combined with a lot of fringe acres, it will really take a near perfect year to get top yields.

I guess it depends if they are running out of seed because the farmers are ordering so much of it early this year, or if they are running out of seed from a loss of production, and truly won't have all varieties available.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Few items..........

Don't forget that with this seed thing will come one other impact this fall.............because it sounds like the wareshouses are being swept for seed corn, you can bet seed corn acres will be up big time to not only supply next year, but get some padding back in the system..........that means harvested acres for grain will likely be lower than 92%, maybe closer to 91% like this last year, or even lower............now all of a sudden 94M and 164 equal 14.0B not 14.2B...........could have lost 200M already..............

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