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Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

[ Edited ]

okay look at the summer of 2015 prediction by the old Farmers Almanac ..."Hot and Dry" for     "ARC-COland"  

 

http://www.grit.com/farm-and-garden/old-farmers-almanac-2015-weather-predictions.aspx  

 

 

Okay, I can feel the collective rolling of eyes by the sophisticated gurus out there.."Farmers Almanac, really???" .  But, they nailed this cold dry winter for this area 2014-2015 and they are probably as good as any weather source  Smiley Happy   

 

Seriously, a hot/dry 2015 summer would be a game changer and there are alot of bears on one side of the boat.  I honestly don`t know, but if a guy can gamble or buy a "call" thingy to leave your topside open it would be a contrarian move.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 430
Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

They are predicting hot and dry for us which we have gotten so used to the last several years. Remember how great our genetics are and how beneficial flash droughts can be?
Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎01-10-2012
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Hot and dry for us ending in a late season flood and wet fall, I can see it now right here in my Harbor Freight plastic crystal ball.

Honored Advisor
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Yes bkadds,  Smiley Happy  then after that fact as they revise the yields down.."Oh, it must`ve been the hot nights that affected the grain fill".    I`m making the post tongue-in-cheek, because I don`t know.  If someone maybe had a hard time getting opperating money and the banker only gave them money predicated on their buying 85% crop insurance and locking in a dime or nickel where they can, they`d better follow doctors orders and take that medicine.  But, it looks like anywhere near $4 and $10 corn and beans will have some farmers selling their APH and in October perhaps 20/20 will show that having been smart.  But, it just looks like too many are getting too bearish, too soon while there`s still 2 feet of frost in the ground.

Senior Contributor
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Registered: ‎08-11-2014
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Why would you do that? To insure profits?

Or to avoid significant losses?

 

 

Honored Advisor
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Well Don, if there`s a big crop coming next fall corn will have a "2" in front of it and beans will have a "7" in front of it. But as loopsided as things are bearish, there maybe a opportunity (with risk of course) if you can handle the possible downside with what the insurance guarantees are.  the thing is, it looks like most farmers will "settle" for what`s close to $4 corn and $9.50 beans. Rash of selling when it gets a few pennies of what will be that fall cash price.

Senior Contributor
Posts: 2,911
Registered: ‎08-11-2014

Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Am I wrong to assume that you have put on a huge short position in december 15 corn and november 15 beans?  That would indicate to me that you are quite serious about your prognosis. Other wise it is probably just jaw flopping again!

Esteemed Advisor
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Registered: ‎04-29-2011
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

Anyone need to borrow my hammer?      Smiley Wink

Honored Advisor
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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

[ Edited ]

Don, you are wrong to assume that I am shorting new crop, I don`t have any old crop to sell outside of feed overage and no new sold.  I`m just pointing out the risks of not doing something if we have a big crop this year.  Just sayin` since fall around here about $3.90 corn and $9.80 beans was the best that could be done for new crop...well that ain`t good enough, however if we have a good growing year those prices might look mighty good, but right now I think it`s worth the risk to make the market show it`s cards.  I think presently the the market is bluffing with a "pair of two`s"...the market thinks that I`m bluffing...well, they`re going to have to make the pot bigger to find out.  Smiley Happy

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Re: Fighting urge to make new crop sales.

I have 10bpa beans sold at $9.47.