So according to Sal...you are in a perfect position for great yields in 2015. :=)
Take care MT...be thankful for your subsidized crop insurance. You won't take much of an equity hit in a terrible year, living to fight it again next year. You be safe as well.
Talked to a friend of mine who farms on the missouri bottom last night. He got last 20 acres of beans done yesterday but were underwater today after 2" of rain last night, (and more in the forcast). He said they are cleaning out the planter now. Most around him have the same thoughts. What is done is it after this week. There are a lot of beans not done. But its perfect everywhere I hear.
June 9th, which likely becomes the center of a double bottom. Lows in wheat were put in during May, ahead of c and soy as usual.
Obviously, June 29th/July 2nd as usual but I sense that will be a gap up or down and not the final swing low as in past years.
The market is taking alot for granted, including final acreage numbers, so it is ripe for a bit of a surprise. Sal's comments reflect the conventional wisdom...which as you know is not wisdom in any way...
Of course, the markets need to stop going down and we must follow where the money flow leads us. Gonna have to lift my hedges pretty soon...just can't take being bearish this many years in a row...nothing good lasts forever.
I will be very curious to see if corn and beans are holding above contract lows on 6/16. And then, in an ideal world, (which doesn't happen all the TIME) the buying low would be June 24th. Today is the exact same rhythm count in Silver, so what silver does today/tomorrow might be instructive. This is important because price level is 100% controlled by money flow, regardless of what is being bought and sold back and forth. jmo
The fact that the high on June 9th did NOT exceed the May 18th high is bearish. Lower lows are certainly a possibility which is why we need to wait and watch happens on the 16th and the 24th. We also really need to have Open Interest increase on this current decline. (This would likely represent even more spec selling and commercial buying as happens as most important lows).
That just sucks Tiger. I am truly sorry to hear that. For what it is worth the pattern seems to be shifting to the northeast. I don't know if it will continue or to what extreme but it is worth noting. I still haven't ruled out a hot and dry scenario east of the Mississippi for July and August. Things look great over a large area but are still quite vulnerable with a very long way to go to the finish line. Again, sorry for your bad luck this year.
The area in trouble is fringe, only counts if it has a good crop on the way.
Started the day yesterday on the field cult.
Fixed forty acres of flood damage on the bottoms.
Went on to planting beans, my son showed up with one of his 24 row jobs. He spent all afternoon and evening and got 55 acres "planted" his worst plug up was only 17 rows. We got showered out at about 8 pm.
No moisture overnight and the GPS said 34.6 planted this morning with my 12 row, got the. field done, finished in the drizzle @ 9:00 this morning.
Finished planting beans in Kansas yesterday too
Just have one 38 acre swamp left to plant.
Been thinking about stalking it with alligators. Wonder if they would stay in with just a standard electric fence? Anybody know the stocking rate per acre? Plenty of deer, turkeys, and coons as a food source.