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01-11-2019 10:04 AM
You've probably seen this,but if not it's a good recap of what data is available and where to find it, and a discussion of the relative importance of USDA data..
I have to say that at this date lack of data is not bothering me, but undoubtedly there are many who are faced with making marketing decisions and who would appreciate access to all the data available.
01-12-2019 12:03 PM
I get several sources and some are providing info as usual. Some are lacking something to say.
It’s a good time to see who is too dependent on one source. A good time to look around for better market info.
01-13-2019 07:40 PM
In the long run, it will only matter what numbers come out of the USDA........whenever that happens. We all know that their numbers are the law of the land. In the meantime, one can only hope that we are guessing correctly.
01-14-2019 08:38 AM - edited 01-14-2019 08:40 AM
Your right --- the bashing was a little much....... Maybe some day we will get local fsa employees that have just a little competence and some measure of dignity(like the ones they drove off). And that isn't washingtons fault. They are trying to look relevant and important while residing in a minor position of a minor welfare budget.
I do read their actual reports---- not their conclusions--- they go way beyond what the data says when it comes to predictions.
But I have not noticed their lack of publication. And the futures markets are working just fine without so much "influence". It is great when we get movement that is based on actual sales and not just cash being dumped into a something a few days after it is printed.
Fed policy has provided much of what usda claims credit for--predicting the market...because in tandem they are predictable.
Lets get this straight ----- I do not think there is any information out there that is not slanted and presented with purpose.... usda is not lilly white, nor do they have the budget to know the things they claim to know..... I know computer projecting methods and they are always tainted by the assumptions. For instance usda has used trend yield as an assumption ever since Monsanto guaranteed it before congress. That is an ingrained bias that affects the outcome no matter how righteous the process.
and finally how do you hedge or trade the market and not have an account with a major trading firm........ And if you do, you are in contact with them. They provide far more informative information. They survey our grain handling facility for information fairly often and call regularly to gather information about the area. I can ask them questions about Iowa or nebraska and get answers that are relevant and current from their customers. They help me with bid options and I help them gather information. ----- and if you do ... you have access to information that is more relevant than usda's mind reading projections of crops yet to be planted or even eastern europe's soybean crop yet to be planted which is somehow competing for your space at the local elevator or crusher.