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Senior Advisor

Fire away........

Acres in Millions     Total Total of 
 CornWheatSoyaCottonCorn/Soyathese 4Total% of Total
200678.357.375.515.3153.8226.4315.70.71725
200793.560.564.710.8158.2229.5320.40.71636
200886.063.175.79.5161.7234.3324.80.72132
200986.459.277.59.2163.9232.3319.30.72764
201088.253.677.411.0165.6230.2316.70.72687
201191.954.475.014.7166.9236.0315.00.74921
2012 MT guess93.557.072.513.0166.0236.0318.00.74214
1996**79.575.664.214.7143.7234.0334.00.70060
 Illinois 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
200311.210.38.03571421.51641.1533052
200411.759.9515.3191521.71801.1221945
200512.19.521.487621.61430.9668695
200611.310.110.6194721.41631.093226
200713.28.337.1212121.51751.1612475
200812.19.223.9669421.31791.1630929
2009129.421.6666721.41741.0564663
201012.69.127.7777821.71571.0274869
201112.68.929.3650821.51571.0665761
       
       
 Indiana 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20035.65.452.67857111.051461.0267229
20045.75.552.63157911.251681.0473815
20055.95.48.47457611.31541.0412441
20065.55.7-3.6363611.21571.0529846
20076.54.826.1538511.31541.0218978
20085.75.454.38596511.151601.0396361
20095.65.452.67857111.051711.0382514
20105.95.359.32203411.251571.0274869
20115.95.310.1694911.21460.9918478
       
       
 Iowa 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
200312.310.613.8211422.91571.1040788
200412.710.219.6850422.91811.1284289
200512.810.121.0937522.91731.1697093
200612.610.1519.4444422.751661.1133467
200714.28.6539.0845122.851711.1347047
200813.39.7526.6917323.051711.1111111
200913.69.629.4117623.21821.1050395
201013.49.826.8656723.21651.0798429
201114.19.3533.6879423.451721.1684783
       
       
 Minnesota 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20037.27.5-4.1666714.71461.0267229
20047.57.32.66666714.81590.9912718
20057.36.95.47945214.21741.1764706
20067.37.35-0.6849314.651611.0798122
20078.46.3524.4047614.751460.9688122
20087.77.058.44155814.751641.065627
20097.67.25.26315814.81741.0564663
20107.77.43.89610415.11771.158377
20118.17.112.3456815.21561.0597826
       
       
 Nebraska 
 CornSoyaRatioCorn/SoyaCorn YieldState/US
20038.14.5543.8271612.651461.0267229
20048.254.841.8181813.051661.0349127
20058.54.744.7058813.21541.0412441
20068.15.0537.6543213.151521.01945
20079.43.8758.8297913.271601.061712
20088.84.944.3181813.71631.0591293
20099.154.847.5409813.951781.0807529
20109.155.1543.7158514.31661.0863874
20119.854.950.2538114.751601.0869565

 

EDIT:  PIA to paste these charts in and have em line up right........think they are in right now.........sorry.....

 

Interesting stuff when you look at acres in the major corn states.........lots of things you could draw conclusions on.......two things I would urge you to think about.......the ratio column is my SWAG at the % of COC acres..........look at that, then yield, the progression of corn/soya acres in relation to the total over the years and what 94 plus million acres looks like.........then think about COP and grain prices...........

 

IA, IL, IN are flat on acres.........MN a small tick up........NE has seen some increases, but with water issues I wouldnt expect to see it continue at a very fast clip and might contract.............

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13 Replies
Contributor

Re: Fire away........

As for Nebraska. I have not seen land get plowed up like this since the 70's and early 80's. The iron piles are getting cleaned up and that is paying for tearing out the shelter belts. Fences getting torn out to farm closer to the road! I asked the tiling guy when he could get to my project and he said not a chance until fall!! I saw him running yesterday! Its January, and he can't get to me until next fall! Caterpillars and excavators are tearing out trees everywhere!  Anything less than 30% slope is getting plowed up. All the crp is getting plowed up. The acres are coming! I do not care if it is $6.00 corn or $2.00 corn! You will see a lot of acres! So the demand better be there.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fire away........

Thanks jury duty--------------good name.

 

Good report,  down here there are showing up some acres of crp break out in spots where they can still drill for irrigation.  They will be below average acres but acres are acres.  I have believed that the acres will not come from the heart of the cornbelt but the fringe----western dryland , the real crp areas, eastern colo, western Ks & neb,  okla panhandle-----------thats where the bulk of crp is and could, with a wet spring, add a lot of acres, but production will be way below average.  It is the area to watch.

The new acres in your area would have more potential.  Am I right?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fire away........

Well, this is all great news.......we won't be having any more demand destruction since we will be having cheap corn because of all these acres.   I, myself will be sitting back and watching and waiting to latch on to more acres due to all the farms that will be coming up for sale.  

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Advisor

Re: Fire away........

The maket isn't buying many corn acres today. These fringe acres usually require as much or more management than the good acres. Looks like its a loosing business model at todays prices. Take the corn to 4 and your'e right there will be some farms for sale.
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Advisor

Re: Fire away........

farmers are gamblers,  they will plant and hope for a weather rally back up to 7.50.  It would be the third or fourth chance so it isn't likely to come.

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plowboy361
Friend

Re: Fire away........

Jury duty have you noticed the crp and pastures in NE nebraska being torn up. 200 hp with mfd and 16 row interplant planters only plant down hill on some of these hills simply can't pull the equipment up the steep hills. Comical to watch but will have long term effects. Do you think these extra acres being added will definatly add to the nat'l acre amount but will drag down the nat'l yield
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Fire away........

The acres may be there, but have you ever seen 1st year corn after CRP in Nebraska?

Most Nebraska CRP is in land that is not all that suitable for cropping, due to steep slope, or thin soil, or both.  Also, unless the water rights are still there, no more acres are going to be irrigated, at least not legally.  From what I have seen of Nebraska CRP around here, most of it is in the areas that don't get reliable rains through the summer, though.

On the other hand, out our way, where the water table has been rising pretty steadily the last 10-20 years, the irrigation district is allowing people to add a few acres, so in that sense there are a lot of pivots that are going to water more than they did.  A ditch that it used to reverse at, now will have bridges over, and that little 10 acre patch on the other side will get watered now, or a few trees will be dozed, and the end gun will run longer, that sort of thing, but on the other hand, the cattlemen are getting good calf prices, and it has been dry, so more hay is being planted, as well, which takes from row crops.

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Highlighted
Contributor

Re: Fire away........

When someone called these fringe acres. They are truly border line acres. The 20-30 quarters of crp coming back into production around here, were mostly bought by farmers 100 miles away that are use to farming some exceptional ground. They purchased this ground because it was cheap compared to what they were use to. There will be a lot more acres in this area, but you are correct this is all sub par land that will never raise national or local yields. There are about 10 quarters south of me that are irrigated and will be lucky to raise 100 bushel corn. The last year it was farmed, I think 1991 it raised 28 bushel per acre corn. Irrigated! 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Fire away........

sorry tiger, 

just reporting what I see.  the senerio has played out a couple of other times in my life.  When old soil bank ground came out in 60s, etc.

There are a few places where new irrig. drilling is still possible------------not a big area.

And the western dryland guys ------------they 'r tough and will make it work in a long rotation.  

 

cat & VR----

I don't think corn price is the driver in more acres out west and sw.--------it is the land price bubble that will and has pushing it.  

VR's first 3 words-----spot on.  It is not a matter of price on corn as much as it is low interest rates and a sick wall street, when land is for sale farmers  will buy land--opportunity------when they have paid an uncomfortable price, they will look for a way to improve the cash flow it would happen at $5 corn.  higher land prices= land for sale=something better than $30 crp return.

 

These inflated land prices are a killer in more than just the estate tax area.

---------------

Mizzou(and others here)----------will be proven right by this --and I will take it a bit farther.  I think it is possible that trend line corn yields are a rural myth created by things other than seed and combines.  And this marginal acres senerio is one of those driving forces.  They are data,  but skewed data.  We have seen improvements but for other reasons than the

3 events that increased corn yields, comercial fertilizers, hybridization, tech improvements.  Without those yields would be flatter and depend on acres planted, location, and weather.-

The CRP program just took poor yields out of the formula and will add them back.-------------I am----gettin it under control.

Too many variables to trend line yield-------it is a good sales tool for the seed guys.

 

This acre growth will bring yields down and even if there is a million more acres planted it will bring average yield down.  And so far drought tollerant seed---holds green longer but hasnt produced without water.

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