cancel
Showing results for 
Search instead for 
Did you mean: 
Senior Advisor

Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

Still running. Working on a farm that's 1.5 miles deep. Wanna get the back done and get to the half mile mark so the long hauls are done. Need about another hour

Storms firing all around. Hellva light show. Had one pop right on top of us about half hour ago. Big ole rain drops. Dust is still flying though. Ground finally got fit enough today you didn't feel too bad about running. Yesterday was just ok and Monday was a mudhole

They say we are in for a toad strangler. Are we having fun yet

So crops is maybe 20% harvested and we are already starting to hear the not as good as we thought talk in some key areas. Especially in beans. Corn too but to a lesser extent

So what's a 43-44 soy crop look like. What if acres get shaved too

Just something bullish to think about since it's been pretty doom and gloom lately and everyone wants to bury beans to $6
0 Kudos
11 Replies
Senior Advisor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

Heard beans weren't turning out as expected in one area in Nebraska. Don't know if this is the beginning of a trend or just a local situation.

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

My soys in north iowa are good, but not great. So far 51-57. I really thought they looked better than that. didn't really have alot of sds, but wet weather problems in june. I guess you take what you get. Slower harvest also for northiowa. cloudy days and cool days and some beans just not quite ready. Light rain last night about 8 shut everyone down. Have a good harvest tiger.

0 Kudos
Advisor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

Informa says 4 billion soy crop. Is ole Willard Sparks still around
0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

Finally beans have dropped enough leaves to start cutting Tuesday. Average at bet in the three eighties we've been thru. Highly variable is how I would describe things thus far. 50-52 BPA. No corn shelled yet. So where are we ever going to store this MONSTER average crop? Well it should help that the blue light special has been occurring for several months now and all the shelves a bare.

0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Out Your Back Window?

What I"ve been hearing from analysts and brokers for well over a month is that the big yield will be in Illinois and other areas.  Not in Iowa.  I've heard of some big yields in Missouri, second hand.  This is beans.  Also heard of big yields in the South.

 

So - the questiuon is - if you are an Iowan and your beans are average, is that new information to the trade or is that information already in the mix?  And is the information accurate?

 

If the answer to the above is yes, then people reading of average Iowa bean yields  will find it confirms various reports.  If the information is false, let's say it assumed Iowa would have big bean yields, then the information we're seeing posted here are bullish.

 

Part of the question is what one should believe and what one wants to believe.  It's always best when they are the same.  It can be financially painful when they are not.

 

I have not lifted my bean hedges (not that it matters all that much, as the hedges and the cash are moving pretty much in line right now) but I do keep a daily watch.    One of these days I'll have to lift them or roll them.  Still not sure which.

Tags (1)
0 Kudos
Senior Advisor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

Jim can you define other areas

IL is certainly good but it has some holes too

MO is good but it also has holes and less impactful acres count

Other than that all I have heard is as much bad as good and most areas struggling to beat last year from pretty much everywhere else

And yes I know there is a good sized crop out there. But still trying to figure out how they have come up with these lofty numbers given all the less than thought issues

There was 260-300 bushel corn in IL 5-10 years ago. It's not like it's never happened. And frankly all we heard all summer was 2 ears and 300 from IL. Now all of a sudden it's 180-220 with a few pushing 240-250. Well hell, that's sounds like a normal IL crop. Nothing special per say. Yet some have the balance sheet penciled in like it is

JMO

0 Kudos
Frequent Contributor

Re: Out Your Back Window?

I say again North........ Central .........Illinois ........beans........average......... At.........best..........on..........early.........planted........... Soybeans........

More ..........to............come

 

 

 

 

0 Kudos
Contributor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

On a whole, in an abruptly changing climate with it's increased tendency for extreme weather, I think this year will be as good as it gets from now on.

 

And, all those rosy projections are just to keep markets calm.

 

Sorry to be so negative, but we need to be realistic here.

0 Kudos
Honored Advisor

Re: Firing all around, areal flood watch, are we having fun yet

After 6 months of unrealistic, we are struggling to find realistic, but I think harvest will help us get there.

 

We are seeing large variation in yield, also, in irrigation that should be consistant ----- in the same row.  Every field has those 260ish locations but it is hard to get through the field without 150's either by soil type, elevation or side of the field.  South is not the high rent district in our fields.  ------- short version,  very inconsistant.

 

Beans are the same,  some 80's and 90's for ten acres then 10 acres of 30-35

 

 

 

0 Kudos