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Senior Advisor

Flash drought or normal?

Begs the question. Have the last several years been the exception and 2017 is the rule.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Well, just to tickle the shorts, 1977, some corn never produced an ear. We are WEEKS away from tassel, keep this up, fireworks in July.  BUT, it always rains in time...except when it doesn't...plenty of subsoil moisture here.  Crops looked great this morning. Maybe should get a picture of "what might have been."  Lots  of years see a hot week about now, and then things go back to a better crop cycle.  Lucky sevens?

Legalized gambling on the farm. My memory is not to be trusted, but this is one of the lowest humidity June I can remember. Need before and after pictures from today/next Monday. Blow torch coming. Hay is almost dry before you cut it. No worries, rain next Tuesday.  High temps 89-97 for the next 10 days, but it is summer folks. USDA said 170 or something...so I can take that to the bank. Elwyn said 171, so might need to take more to the bank. No panic yet, dry June makes for big yields if July/August cooperate. Crap, do the shorts even sweat this at all? I know the odds favor them, but surely they blink a little.

Central Ia

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

jec22......we both have vivid memories of 1977.....that was the year I had 300 acres of corn and 15 acres of beans.....guess which crop grew more harvested bushels???  We lost the corn crop on the 4th of July......100+ temps , wind, and low humidity did it in...I looked up Marion county yield that year and it came in at 18 bpa...

 

so, I think this "low humidity and breezy" forecast must have caught both of our eyes, as it only takes 2-3 days of that kind of event to changes things from good to lousy....

 

we chopped a lot of "earless" corn for feed......that was strange as there was no grain to make noise going into the chopper box.....we had a clay knob that sloped to the north and all of a sudden there was a racket......turns out there was a small area with ears......but that didn't last long and we were back into the mush....

 

turned out to be an eventual career changer for Mrs. J and me.....was like playing on a bad football team..."character building"

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Ray-Jec

Obvouisly I wasn't around in that time waaaaaaay back when.  But you say this was similar weather, temps in the upper 90s with low humidity.  What about the soil moisture?  I can't speak for you but in my area we are by no means wet, but we are far from dry.  As we had a Wet March and a wet fall. Also, what stage was your corn at now vs then?

Thanks

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

It was dry from the start in the spring of 1977, and it was an early spring......I remember a farm magazine article about someone in SC Iowa doing some planting in March.....you have to remember that "early planting" was sometime after April 20-25 back in those days.....

 

one of the changes in our weather has been the lack of days above 90-93 degrees most years......and also the lack of windy and low humidity days, too

 

this year we have good subsoil, but less than perfect root system......need some time to solve the root issues while hoping we don't get blasted with July/Aug weather conditions.....

 

one of my memories from 1977......my neighbor was growing seed corn for Garst and Thomas that year.....on that fateful day that the crop was lost, I remember that his seed corn shrank in half......some things you don't forget...

 

we were saved when a late summer hurricane threw a lot of moisture into the midwest......after losing the corn crop on July 4, we ended up cutting alfalfa in August that was almost like first cutting hay....

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Senior Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Flame thrower south wind will take a week off a crops life in 1 day.

This weekend will damn near cook those that are dry and bring those with moisture to their knees. We haven't even got to Father's Day yet.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Still, it came down to rain.  Didn't Illinois still raise a  good crop in 77? 

 

We still have tons of potential here.  Odds are always that it will still be a 'big' crop in IA.  But odds don't matter if you are the one in the 10 percent. 

 

Stranger things have happened...but the east could still out produce the west...the game is only in the first couple of innings.

 

For now, short lawn mowers...

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Senior Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Couple of things that set this year apart

First. While some may say they have plenty of potential. Many don't anymore. Heck I've got corn that from he road looks pretty good especially in that evening sun. I can tell you after POST spraying some of it a week or two ago. It's not perfect with plenty to holes and stand issues that are hidden within the row.

After seeing a decent chunk of IL and hearing IN and OH are much worse i can tell you they will fight to get to average this year. And that's with good weather from here on out.

Reality is we already have dents in the fender in some major areas that can't be recovered even with 2016 weather.

So our room for error is zero and we are starring at hot and dry before Father's Day.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Ray,

Had a neighbor that was busy with a spring building project, never got his corn planted until around the 15th of June.  He was the one who had corn to harvest in 77.  That is why I say the east could still out  yield the west this year.  Stranger things have happened.

 

Character building...now we know why us old guys are such characters.....

 

Central Ia

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Honored Advisor

Re: Flash drought or normal?

Maybe to add a little depth to the discussion, our corn planted May 22nd, which we waited to plant because we are just not dumb enough to plant undrained Indiana clay soils in April, certainly has higher yield potential than the perfect stuff we planted April 21st. Same thing has happened a few times the last 10 years.

 

While there is a lot of IN/OH that will struggle to make average, there is a lot (at least 50%) that has an excellent chance of being above average given a normal august and september. A hot dry June will ding some areas, but make many better. It is kind of a wash. It will really come down to next week's rains, and temps after July 4th. A normal 1 inch next week and there will be some really great looking corn out here. So, it is all weather, but like the man said, the east is not out of the game yet.

 

My grandfather always said that if you can't plant in May because it is too wet, maybe God knows you shouldn't plant in May! Lots of times a June 2nd corn will out yield a May 5th, maybe 3 out of 10 in the eastern belt.

 

Besides, with crop insurance, why would any of us really want to grow a good crop. A bad crop makes us a ton more money.

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