Floor Talk April 12 (Report Day)

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 6 cents higher at $3.62 3/4. May soybean futures finished 8 cents higher at $9.36 1/4. May wheat futures finished 5 1/4 cents higher at $4.52 1/2. May soymeal futures closed $5.00 short ton higher at $285.10. May soyoil futures are $0.21 lower at $33.69.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.56 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 165 points higher.

Mike

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At 11:35am:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $3.59. May soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at $9.30. May wheat futures are 6 cents higher at $4.53. May soymeal futures trade $1.50 short ton higher at $281.60. May soyoil futures are $0.14 lower at $33.76.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.34 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 151 points higher.

Mike

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At 11am:

USDA SAYS:  Negative for markets, especially for corn. The numbers are seen as bearish. However, corn is still higher, soybeans trade up 7¢.

Ending Stocks:

Corn: 1.86 billion bushels vs. the trade's expectation of 1.86 billion.

Soybean: 445 million bushels vs. the trade's expectations of 454 million

Wheat: 976 million bushels vs. the trade's expectyations of 977 million

WORLD PRODUCTION NUMBERS:

Argentina corn=  27.0 metric tons, same as USDA March

Argentina soybeans= 59.0 million metric tons, slightly higher than USDA March's 58.50 mmt

Brazil soybeans=  100.0 mmt, same as USDA March

Brazil corn= 84.0 mmt, same as USDA March

Global Ending Stocks

Corn= 208.9, up from trade thoughts of 207.0 mmt

Soybeans= 79.0 mmt vs. trade expectations of 78.5 mmt

Wheat= 239 mmt. vs. trade's expectations of 236.0 mmt

TRADE REACTION:

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that this was a dull as a report can be. “Other than a slight rise in corn use for ethanol and a small reduction in domestic US soybean carryout, there were no surprises today. Moving forward all eyes will be on crop progress reports and global weather, especially in the US and South America. Prices remain close to the cost of production across the row crop complex, which means surprises will likely be to the upside if weather headlines turn bullish.”

--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group analyst, says that the markets have had a curious reaction to an interesting report.  
“The report increased soybean exports and cut corn and wheat feed demand.  Not sure I understand any of that, but it is what we got,” Scoville says.  Overall, no big shocks in the reports.
“The bottom line is that the data came in inside trade expectations,” Scoville says.
No changes in Brazil’s crop production, he says. “It was interesting that Argentina’s crop sizes were not increased. We might be near some kind of short term top, especially beans that have rallied.  Tougher to get rallies moving forward without weather here or South America.”

--One analyst says that it is encouraging that despite the negative numbers, the markets have held up, for now. The real story will be how the markets close.

---Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says, "The report is neutral-to- negative, for both corn and soybeans . Nothing on this report signals supply shortage, most U.S. numbers were increased, along with an increase in the world carryover numbers for the grains."

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the May corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents higher at $3.60 1/4. May soybean futures are 7 1/2 cents higher at $9.35 3/4. May wheat futures are 3 cents higher at $4.50 1/4. May soymeal futures trade $4.20 short ton higher at $284.30. May soyoil futures are $0.14 lower at $33.76.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.25 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 26 points higher.

Mike

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Everything (well, corn, beans and wheat) were all higher overnight as the value of the dollar falls again to the lowest since October. Much more weakness and it'll be the weakest since August. Good news for anybody who wants to export some grains and beans, if it does indeed translate into more overseas sales. It can't hurt, that's for sure, as overseas importers seeking supplies now have a bit more incentive to look our way rather than to South America. 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 1% higher. 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.7% higher.

Dollar = down 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher in pre-market trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks advance as commodities move higher. 

[roarintiger1]

Ending stocks are the same or lower than the last report for the USA.    This hardly seems negative.

BTW, we haven't had the magical 300 million bushels appear OR disappear in these reports now for quite some time.   Does this mean that the USDA is getting better or worse at counting?   

[elcheapo]

yes roaring.......how things are equal or less, and they are said to be bearish.......

oh......as far as the wheat.....looked at the wx data this morning......we had some cold temps...for several hours.....we had 25 degrees for a few hours last night.

Offical nws data show that Hays, Great Bend, Manhattan and Lawrence ks was at critical temps for 2 hours or more last night........

oh yes, something crossing the wire now.........stem rust in ks.....now showing up on the upper leaf........treatment may be needed..........

now.......wheat prices at these levels, newest data out this morning shows we are 60% short of moisture.......wheat quality going down hill.......and you want us to

spend $20 for a fungicide........and the main type of rest has not got here yet.........

i just can't even talk about it anymore.