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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk April 12

I attended a MDA Weather Services Company conference in Chicago Thursday. Joe Prusacki, USDA NASS Director, was asked about the March 28 Quarterly Stocks Report. Here is what he said. He explains that the corn stocks are not on-farm but instead off-farm.

 

5 VIDEOS:  

USDA Explains March Report

 

 

USDA Trusts Farmers

 

 

USDA: "What are we doing wrong?"

 

(--Interestingly enough, notice that there wasn't a lot of response after the question was asked.)

 

 

60% of $1.12 corn price drop regainable

 

 

ISU's Elwynn Taylor: U.S. corn to miss trendline yield, again 

 

 

Mike

-------------

At mid-session:

The May futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $6.56. The May soybean futures contract is trading 10 cents higher at $14.11. May wheat futures are trading 14 cents higher at $7.12 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $5.00 per short ton higher at $400.40. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.56 lower at $49.21.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $2.59 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 56 points lower.

 

One analyst says the rally in the markets goes back to the disbelief of the March 28 Quarterly Stocks Report.
"Were following through with short covering an buying from Wednesday's crop report. The trade did not see all the grain found on the March 28 Quarterly Stocks report, leading to a one dollar break in corn and beans, show up on Wednesday's USDA ending stocks report. This told them stocks are still too tight. Next week looks to refocus on weather and planting progress," he says.

 

Mike

--------

At the open:

 

The May futures corn contract is trading 5 cents higher at $6.56. The May soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents higher at $14.11. May wheat futures are trading 7 cents higher at $7.04 per bushel. The May soymeal futures are trading $4.10 per short ton higher at $399.20. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.09 lower at $49.68.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.41 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 49 points lower.

 

--USDA announces that an 'unknown' bought 110,000 tons of U.S. soybeans Friday.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:25am

 

Early calls:  Corn is seen 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 5-7 cents higher, and wheat 6-8 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$1.24 per barrel lower
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, as JPMorgan and Wells Fargo miss on their earnings reports.

World=Asia/Pacific stocks and Europe's stocks are lower.

 

Green means go, for corn.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

 
 
Message 1 of 17 (4,008 Views)
 
 

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18 Replies
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

So are these bu hedged by the commericals waiting for basis improvement or are they sold forward. Doubt they are just sitting there naked.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

425Cat,

 

It was interesting discussion to watch, as analysts probed Mr. Prusacki about the off-farm stocks. I have more video clips from the meeting that I am getting ready to post. Plus, I will write up a full story on this. The commercials are offering record basis prices. This would indicate they need the corn, and not that they are sitting on stocks.

 

Mike

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

Well the old timers will tell you that when the commericials own the corn the price will go up .Strong hands

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

Markeye ,

See if you can find out exactly what the commericials report. Do they report all inventory or just what isnt committed.

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

Those comments by usda do not provide any confidence in their work.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

Also who is considered a commericial?? Are ethanol plants a commericial???

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

A few thoughts about NASS and Mr Prusacki...... First of all I will say that I do think that Mr Prusacki does believe his #'s..... With that said..... The problem that I have is his statement that they are still using the same processes that they have always used...... There in lies the problem IMO..... I have no problem at this point with the on farm side as I think that it is a good as it ever has been (What ever that means.....:~)........ But the commercials have changed there MO a LOT over the last few yrs.... For one thing the "TYPE" of commercial (END USER) has changed a lot with the E industry...... Let me give an example.... Prusacki has said that there are 9200 commercials that he asks to respond for there reports..... IF you take 200 mil bu (Half of the # of surprise BU) and divide them by 9200 you get a little over 21,000 bu of corn..... Most of these E plants use up that much corn before coffee in the morning ..... My point being the consumption is a lot different today than it was just a few yrs ago.... If I am miss reading this PLEASE let me know because To me this has to be fixed some how..... p-oed 

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

My sources in Argentina tell me that the harvest is delayed due to some rains. It is now under 25 percent of the total. The USDA says that Argentina will have 51 million tons produced this year. The season is a relieve for Argentine farmers, who suffered from a drought in 2012. Sales are starting now. The total production value would reach US$ 26 billion, according to the Argentine Institute of Fiscal Analysis.

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 12

Excellent post Poed . I'm getting bullish corn.

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