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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk April 13

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.70 1/2 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 6 1/2 cents lower at $3.96 per bushel.
May soybean futures finished 2 3/4 cents lower at $9.48 3/4. Nov. soybean futures finished 3 1/4 cents lower at $9.39 1/4. 

May wheat futures settled 24 1/2 cents lower at $5.02 1/4.

May soymeal futures settled $0.40 per short ton lower at $308.80. The May soyoil futures finished $0.05 lower at $31.04.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.71 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the May corn futures are trading 4 cents lower at $3.73 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.98 3/4 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $9.49. Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $9.40. 

May wheat futures are trading 22 1/2 cents lower at $5.04.

May soymeal futures are trading $1.40 per short ton lower at $307.80. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $31.38.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.36 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says wheat is under heavy pressure.
“Wheat is lower on the stronger US Dollar and also on some rains seen in the panhandle areas of OK and TX. The dollar is trying to fade a bit and this is giving a bit of support to the market as we speak,” Scoville says. 
Soybeans have held the best today, he says.
“I suspect the trade expects solid corn planting and less worry about acres switching to beans, in this afternoon’s USDA Crop Progress Report.  Not sure if this is valid or not but it seems to be trade thinking,” Scoville says. 
Corn is down in anticipation of up to 5% plantings completed in today’s progress report. 
“Specs traders are doing much of the selling, not seeing much commercial, although I am a scale up seller of soybeans.”

Mike

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At 10:35am:

Here's a real good look at the upcoming corn planting weather, according to Freese-Notis Weather. This was updated this morning. Looks pretty favorable, don't you think?

 

week2p.gif

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the May corn futures are trading 2 1/4 of a cent lower at $3.74 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are 2 cents lower at $4.00 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 2 3/4 cents higher at $9.53. Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents higher at $9.45. 

May wheat futures are trading 17 cents lower at $5.09.

May soymeal futures are trading unchanged at $309.10. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.29 higher at $31.38.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.88 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 17 points higher.

Matt Pierce, Futures International LLC, floor trader says the bulls have little to chew on.

"Hard to find anything bullish about the current technical stance. The only caveats to the bearishness is the growing fund short and the possible bull run in WK/N if this spread follows the pattern noted in WH-K.

 

With 2 weeks left in WK options selling calls is interesting if you want to take the delta risk with WK Call slope still positive with the 540 strike trading over 30% to start the week," Pierce stated to customers in a daily letter.

 

Mike

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At 6:50am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 8-10 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading mostly lower.
NYMEX Crude Oil = $0.58 higher.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, with the market eyeing a busy week of data releases and bank results.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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11 Replies
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

Pay attention.

 

 

the bottoms are IN on the grains.

things is goin higher from here.   Bout that Simple 2.

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

A market note:

In 2014, April 10 recorde the first corn high of the year. Could it be the possible high of the year for corn this year?

 

Mike

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

If you decide this is the high for corn, then let us know right away.  Planting decision isn't final until the seed is in the ground.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

WCMO,

Looks like the market has a lot to consider, according to this Freese-Notis Weather Map. Dryness across a wide swath of the Corn Belt, especially in your state, looks like it is setting up a window for corn planting, at least. This afternoon's Crop Progress Report will give us a look at how the planting has gone in the South.

 

fntoday.gif

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

Mike, fields here in the eastern cornbelt are still soggy from last weeks rain. Little to no field work has been done over the last week. If we dont get much rain here today we may start field work tomorrow.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

Be careful the trend is your friend and clearly looks lower but if only I knew.
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

So........a 5% corn planted number is bearish?    What is the 95% number on the corn not planted?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 13

Insignificant

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Senior Contributor

Argentina stocks/ Brazil, Ukraine relations

Brazil's Ministry of Agriculture, Livestock, and Supply announced today that Brazil and Ukraine have discussed bilateral agreements regarding more pork and wheat trade. Ukraine has a wheat production forecast at 22.3 million tons, of which 11.8 million tons would be exported, according to the International Grains Council. If these agreements take place, Ukraine can steal part of the U.S. of the Brazilian market of the cereal. Last year, Americans replaced Argentines as top wheat suppliers to Brazil.

 

In, Argentina, soybean stocks are sky high. The soybean harvest in Argentina advanced to 56 percent of the surface, according to an estimate of the Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange. In the province of Buenos Aires alone, however, farmers just harvested 31 percent of the total area. Contrary to many analysts had expected, new soybean contracts did not happen because of lower soybean prices. The stocks of the old crop were estimated last week at 7 million by the government.

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