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04-15-2019 10:13 AM - edited 04-15-2019 01:45 PM
At the close:
At the close, the May futures finished 1 3/4¢ higher at $3.62 3/4. July futures ended 2¢ higher at $3.71 1/2.
May soybean futures closed 3 1/2¢ higher at $8.98 3/4. July soybean futures ended 3 3/4¢ higher at $9.12 1/2.
May wheat futures finished 5¢ lower at $4.59 1/2.
May soymeal futures closed $3.10 short ton higher at $311.00. May soy oil futures closed $0.14 cents lower at 28.81¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.45 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 37 points lower.
At midsession, the May futures 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.62 1/4. July futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $3.71.
May soybean futures are 4¢ higher at $8.99 1/4. July soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $9.13.
May wheat futures are 5 1/2¢ lower at $4.63.
May soymeal futures are $2.90 short ton higher at $310.80. May soy oil futures are $0.15 cents lower at 28.80¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.65 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 77 points lower.
Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that corn and soybeans continue to lack direction due to weighty balance sheets on both fronts and a lack of news.
“While the weather has been less than cooperative as of late, it is still premature for the market to react. The past few years has proven the producers ability to get the crop planted in a small window of opportunity. Should delays materialize late into April we could see some fireworks, particularly in corn, where the funds hold yet another new record short at nearly 300,000 contracts,” O’Connell says.
A swift exit from these positions and into a long position would certainly give the grain markets great pricing opportunities, he says.
O’Connell added, “The market has resided to viewing the U.S.,China deal similar to a middle school relationship. On again, off again, never sure who is talking to who and alliances are short lived.
O’Connell says that it feels like, “Essentially, we will have a deal when we have a deal. My fear is how much market could bleed out between now and then.”
For soybeans, a 30 cent rally from $9.00 puts us right where we are today.
“Moreover, we are seeing decreased demand for soymeal as China continues to raise losses due to African Swine Flu. Should planting get delayed we now open the door for even more bean acres. There are not many good storylines for that market,” O’Connell says.
In early trading, the May futures 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.63. July futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.72.
May soybean futures are 6¢ higher at $9.01 1/4. July soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ higher at $9.15.
May wheat futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $4.59.
May soymeal futures are $3.00 short ton higher at $310.90. May soy oil futures are $0.00 cents even at 28.96¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 51 points lower.
On Monday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 140,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2018/2019 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.
04-15-2019 10:24 AM
04-16-2019 11:31 AM
Less pigs and less cattle means less feed usage.
African swine flu in China and the massive floods have reduced feed demand across the board. From DDGs to Soybean meal.
Yellow corn and soybeans are following the same trend at the moment. Having massive stocks and then reduced demand doesn't do much for prices.
04-16-2019 03:05 PM
All the factors producers consider in projecting prices buyers wait to have proven to them before raising prices. True believers with the correct info can get in early but have to have enough staying power to last until the buyers are forced to pay up.
04-17-2019 10:28 AM - edited 04-17-2019 10:58 AM
Ok, ft92, just to be clear, your points are pure BS.
There are NOT less pigs and less cattle. Even the NASS data says there are more, record numbers actually, and lots of chickens too! Weekly slaughter numbers prove it every week.
There were NOT massive floods for cripe sake. A few counties in NE got hit hard, pull up a map, less than .5% of the US production area flooded is my guess. AND, NE cattlemen are not stupid, which your point seems to imply, they just left the cows in the fields to drown? Pure BS.
Bad weather, from the dawn of man, has caused increased feed usage. Sure a few animals die, but realistically very few, while the rest eat like crazy to stay alive. Our feed usage in Jan/Feb was up 7% while pork produced was down 3% for example. I don't give a hoot what NASS says, the feed usage number is total garbage.
Now, we have record numbers of animals on feed, and now we have extremely profitable prices for them, average weights will skyrocket, so feed usage in your budgets for the 2019 crop are at least 500mil bu low for corn, at least.
China has less hogs, yes, but China buys none of our corn. So they will buy even less than none, silly fake news.
Admittedly I have a cold, but your comment is just childish in its errors of fact. But hey, sell some more corn you don't have, and let's see who is right come late August. :-)
04-20-2019 08:40 AM
Nothing specifically in late August, merely we will know if all of the
grand assumptions prove accurate. We will know if we planted
93 mil, planting dates, temps in July, feed usage will be more
clear, NASS has 4 reports by then to change their changes.
It just takes time to turn around a aircraft carrier full of assumptions is all.
So, he can sell more know, we can wait to sell corn (ie be long corn in
the field or bin) and just see who was right come early August.
The specs have sold the entire carryout already, so the carryout
is in the price already.