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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, April 17, 2020

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures closed 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.22 1/4. July corn futures finished 3¢ higher at $3.29 1/4.

May soybean futures settled 4 1/4¢ lower at $8.32 3/4. July soybean futures ended 3 1/2¢ lower at $8.42 1/4.

July wheat futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $5.33 1/2.

July soymeal futures settled $3.00 per short ton lower at $293.10.

 July soy oil futures closed $0.01 cents higher at 26.67¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.55 per barrel lower at $18.32, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 355 points higher.

Britt O'Connell, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that it's a quiet news day and quiet on the trade front.

"Late yesterday, there was an announcement from Gilead Sciences that its experimental drug remdesivir has seen encouraging early data in treatment of Covid-19. While it was quick to point out this is far from a complete study, the optimism helped lift the stock market move higher overnight. This good news likely spilled over slightly into other markets," O'Connell says.

She added, "Corn has had a historically poor week, trading to new contract lows vs the May and challenging lows we haven't seen since the fall of 2016, but holding support that was at the $3.18 mark. With old crop reaching a very oversold condition, decent exports as of late, we may just have enough of a story to catch a bit of a break."

However, it is going to be very difficult to get excited about new crop corn prices, she says.

"With projections of 97 ml acres - most since 2012 - and lackluster demand, stocks appear to be too burdensome. While we have yet to get an official look at 2020/21 expectations - will come May WASDE - the writing is on the wall," she says.

The soybean market is really a tale of two extremes, according to O'Donnell.

"Domestic demand has been stellar, with crush plants setting record month over month. Export demand has once again been the drag. With a very large SA crop, a cheap Brazilian Real, and this being an unseasonal time for China to buy U.S. beans, the struggle continues. While the 2020/21 balance sheet for beans appears somewhat friendly today, it does seem as if the talk about shifting more acres towards soybeans could gain more traction this year," O'Connell says.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the May corn futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.23. July corn futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $3.29 1/4.

May soybean futures are 2¢ lower at $8.34 3/4. July soybean futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $8.44 1/4.

July wheat futures are 3 3/4¢ higher at $5.33 1/2.


July soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton lower at $294.40.

July soy oil futures are $0.07 cents higher at 26.75¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.72 per barrel lower at $18.15, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 383 points higher.

Mike

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At 8:45am:

In early trading, the May corn futures are 2¢ higher at $3.21 3/4. July corn futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.28 1/4.

May soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.41 3/4. July soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $8.50.

July wheat futures are 3/4¢ higher at $5.31 1/2.

July soymeal futures are $1.20 per short ton higher at $297.30.

July soy oil futures are $0.07 cents higher at 26.75¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $2.13 per barrel lower at $17.56, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 534 points higher.

On Friday, private exporters reported to the USDA export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2019/2020 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that the demand destruction in the corn market will keep a lid on rallies.

"We had a nice rally in the winter wheat market last week due to freezing temps forecast for the winter wheat states. However, since those cold temps, the wheat market has been selling off. It's a classic case of 'buy the rumor, sell the fact'. Corn and wheat saw some decent weekly export sales this week but soybeans were pretty low. South America continues to export some grain to the rest of the world. Demand destruction is still happening. Until that stabilizes, expect upside to be limited," Kluis told customers in a daily note.

Kluis added, "Once we get past the weather systems in the U.S. this week, next week we will see the corn planting pace start picking up across much of the US. The weather is expected to be warmer and drier for a while."

Mike

 

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3 Replies
Wind
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 17, 2020

Yes, a lot of this record corn crop will get planted next week here in Iowa.  Will good planting weather pressure the markets?  We will soon find out.

Had 3 to 4 inches of snow last night.  A photographers dream.  Have some good pics but lack the know-how to get them on here.  Below freezing temps tonight will make it 6 in a row.  60's and 70's and dry forecast for next week.

Went to the grocery store this morning.  Lots of facemarks, TP shelf bone dry.  Bought some milk and pork chops.

 

send me a phone  no Mike and I'll text you some pics

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 17, 2020

I got this theory on the toilet paper issue.... 

I have noticed at a couple of employers where employees like to go to work after the morning coffee on the drive, clock in, and use the facilities at work while on the clock and the can, so to speak.  What are the chances that most every worker    wage earner in the US has been letting the employer pay "the paper trail"  for decades and keeps absolutely no paper products in the house at home.  Faced with weeks of home social distancing and no idea how much to have on hand for normal supply........... well lets say an extra case or so won't go bad.   Employers are surely noticing the phenomenon as well since a roll seems to hast all day now.

I think the IRS should look into this and help each employee estemate the value of the "perk" provided as part of the salary package.  Smiley Happy

sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 17, 2020

I do not expect this to change --- when people begin attending the source of their paychecks once more they will be back to 20 minutes of texting in bathrooms as usual on the clock and I will continue my safe practice of never touching anything in a bathroom not in my home......I am not washing my hands in unsafe territory.  especially the sink area where every hand has touched...and noone in that establishment knows how to clean.  Even their bathrooms at home, without paper products and usb charge ports, if cleaned at all are occasionally by hired help, maybe as a "heart" healthy chore for an older child.

I was taught to "scrub in" on one of my early jobs getting through school.  Believe me those public bathrooms we call fast food or pit stops are ............... well lets say, if you send your child in there and get him back without contamination ....your lucky.  Do not tell him to wash his hands just "in and out fast and don't touch anything, open the door with elbows or gloves."  If you inspect one(bathroom not child) and see a nail brush  and elbow handles on the sink go for it--someone knows what their doing.

Recommendation.....  A John Deere dealership just on the north edge of the oklahoma panhandle line has the cleanest bathrooms possible.  Your child can eat in there.

That is the morning sermon  thanks for coming and remember to send in to our online funding point for knothead research.  Smiley Happy

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