Floor Talk April 20

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures finished 5 1/2¢ lower at $3.85. December futures finished 5 1/2¢ lower at $4.02 1/4. July soybean futures settled 8 3/4¢ lower at $10.40 1/4.  November soybean futures settled 7 1/2¢ lower at $10.35. July wheat futures ended 13 1/2¢ lower at $4.77 1/4. July soy meal futures are $0.80 per short ton higher at $378.60. July soy oil futures settled 0.12 lower at 31.56¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.03 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 219 points lower.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s senior market analyst, says that the markets are reacting to better weather and weaker demand.
“The weather here in the great Midwest should finally turn warmer next week, in time for timely planting of both corn and soybeans.  Plus, some precip is in the forecast this weekend for the Great Plains,” Scoville says. 
“So, things seem to be getting better in a nick of time for corn and beans, and the situation out west could be more stable in HRW areas.  Nothing new going on in South America, things seem to be bumping along, but basis has come down there and hurt nearby demand ideas for corn and beans,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $3.86. December futures are 4¢ lower at $4.04. July soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $10.42.  November soybean futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $10.37. July wheat futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $4.82. July soy meal futures are $1.70 per short ton higher at $379.50. July soy oil futures are 0.06 lower at 31.62¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.04 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 203 points lower.

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading, the July corn futures are 3 1/2¢ lower at $3.87. December futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $4.04. July soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $10.40.  November soybean futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $10.34. July wheat futures are 7 1/2¢ lower at $4.83. July soy meal futures are $1.90 per short ton lower at $375.90. July soy oil futures are 0.12 lower at 31.56¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.56 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points lower.

Mike

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Wheat futures declined for the first time in four sessions as rain is actually going to fall in the southern Plains. As in real live rain. The area hasn't seen that in at least three months -- up to six months in some areas. That should help alleviate at least a little bit of the extreme and exceptional drought most counties in hard-red winter wheat country are currently facing. Wheat was down 8-9 cents, corn lost 2 cents and beans were down 7 cents overnight. Export sales of corn and beans were mixed, though wheat sales were in the red after cancellations by several countries. Those same countries, however, picked up supplies for delivery in the 2018-2019 marketing year that starts on June 1, so net-net it was a wash. In weather news, along with the aforementioned rain in the southern Plains, freeze warnings are in effect for parts of southern Illinois, southern Indiana and southern Ohio this morning as temps were into the upper 20s, the National Weather Service said. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things. 

Brent Crude Oil = down 0.7%.

West Texas Intermediate = down 0.7%.

Dollar = up 0.2%

Wall Street = U.S. stock markets mixed pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.

[greatlakes farmer]

I'm not really sure how much real live rain helps a crop that hasn't seen rain in 3-6 months, but I am glad they are getting some moisture.

[sw363535]

End of april will be 8 months........ (this statement is based on fact) and is not worded for market effect like that garbage above......."as rain is actually going to fall in the southern Plains. As in real live rain"

With winds still gusting to near 50 mph lets take a few breaths of dusty air and look at a real forcast that wasn't produced for market effect.

Last two line----- first two predict the continuing wind ----- last two ---- "Chance of percipitation this afternoon 70%.  Less than half an inch of precipitation possible."

I can't pinpoint a location in the whole SW region that has better prospects than that.

a half inch wouldn't settle dust.

[elcheapo]

Hold on SW, help is on the way, I called dispatch and had

Them page out the water rescue team and sent

Them in your direction !!!

[elcheapo]

SW....that rain...is it live or memorix ??

[sw363535]

Fictional statements like this should be held accountable...... ."as rain is actually going to fall in the southern Plains. As in real live rain"   

It screams "if you want factual reports on marketing information, get it somewhere else".

If the writer cared about the printed integrity of his contribution, he has my phone # and email and can check with me within 24 hours and print a factual report and it will have real effect on the crop.  (and there are even better sources of factual information)

At one time this website had a well blanketed network of contributors in this area.   But fiction is easy, quick, and cheap.  And it's purpose is not to inform ----and if may know we all go somewhere else for serious market information.

If that place exists.  But as long as those advertisers are fooled into thinking this is serious information, the low traffic numbers don't matter.  It's all about the $$$$ ...... easy cheap return on minimal investment.(staff, management and writers)

[northnd]

I saw that statement and just shook my head. Come on. Seriously. Is this just fake news? Goobely Gook to try to find an explanation for the unexplainable? If a crop does not see appreciable moisture for six months it is toast. It’s lives have been used up. This ground is destined for another crop. Fundamentals really mean nothing unless the market needs to be moved in a certain direction. Right now that direction is down so fundamentals be damned that is where it is going to be directed. Eventually some money will be made by moving it in an opposite direction and then some fundamentals will be chosen from the dartboard of euphemisms to “explain” it. Let’s face it, the market is broken. Irreparably so. This is not ravings from an eternal optimist. Unlike “real live rain”, real live facts.

[BA Deere]

I suppose, planters will roll at some point soon and the traders will be from Missouri (show me) and prices will drop further than we think and further than is reasonable.  That`s just the way it is, if you haven`t sold already, turn off the markets for a couple months or you`ll get depressed.  If you did sell, listen to the markets and don`t sprain your elbow patting yourself on the back   🙂

[elcheapo]

BA must have watched market tonight

I just about wet myself laughing a couple
Times...this fellow had not a clue and said
Exactly what his customers on LaSalle street
Wanted to hear

A market advisor that does not even mention
Wheat conditions in KS, Okla, Tex and Colo,
And babbles about spring....

Then thinking that the corn crop will be in
The ground shortly...
My those jd planters must be good to thru
The ice and snow and frozen ground.

Oh no, could it be I'm going to quote trump

""Fake news""

[BA Deere]

Yes, I watched M to M.  Ted Seifert was really flirting with Delany, doin` the eyebrow thing  🙂

But yeah Elcheapo, the world is awash in wheat, wheat doesn`t even "have a nametag".  I`m getting all kinds of reminders to contact seed dealers for a time they can deliver, because it`s really gonna get busy.  No oats seeded, many times by 4/20 some would be half done with their corn.  The cow lot is thawing from underneath, forecast is 60`s, not much precip. I think things are gonna turn fast.   I could be wrong of course, but that Sun is powerful and things could get fit sooner than everyone thinks and traders can check that concern off their list.  

I would love to talk this market up, but like Rush, I also live in Realville.   I`ll try and "kill the crop off" later this summer  😉