Floor Talk April 21

[Tony_Dreibus]

Well I guess we know the answer to whether the buying will continue. At least for now. Soybeans jumped double digits for a third straight day, putting the three-day increase to 76 cents. I know it sounds like a broken record over here, but is this sustainable? And how long until the funds decide they've made enough money and jump ship? Let's be real here -- it's not like there's not a record amount of soybeans in the world, so is this bull party going to last or will the bears come in and crash it soon? 

It's not just agriculture that investors are moving into, though, it's all commodities. The weakening dollar is improving the allure of commodities on a macro scale, which is driving up prices. How long that will continue is anybody's guess.

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = 0.1% lower. 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.1% higher.

Dollar = down 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly higher in pre-market trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks fall as investors move to commodities. 

[BA Deere]

The last report sounded like the USDA not bashfully wanting to buy bean acres, now this Argentina deal and alot of traders caught short.  Okay, if the market still is wanting bean acres where are they going to come from?  Corn is and went in like hot butter with some neighborhoods done with corn.  Are bean prices going to have to get high enough to entice farmers to rip up corn acres? (I say that tongue in cheek)...but here we are April 21, still very early for corn.."What price is it gonna take to have you guys plant your last swing acres to beans?"  New crop of $10.25...$10.50...$10.75....gulp $11? Naw.

Or is the realization that there was a burdensome supply predicted of beans and as soon as the last trader squares himself up, it`s back to the coalmine for us on prices?   But it seems there was zero "weather premium" in this or the corn market.

[roarintiger1]

Believe me.........not everyone has started planting.  Switches still could be made.

[Tony_Dreibus]

Getting a lot of price action today. I imagine the conversation with the seed dealer is something like:

Farmer: Hey forget the corn, I'm going to go with soyb -- wait, hold on, nevermind, I'm going to stick with the cor -- whoa hold on just a second, I'll take the beans now. (long pause) You know much about growing cannabis? 

[roarintiger1]

Using much these days?     

Corn, that is.     What did you think that I meant?  

[Tony_Dreibus]

Haha not a chance. As a Nebraskan living in Texas, I do believe I could legally be shot for that. 

That's why I keep my Cornhuskerness to myself down in Longhorn country. 

[roarintiger1]

I understand perfectly.

[westernia80]

Got rained out on Sunday.  So COOP didn't get all the urea on.  Monday we switched 70 acres of COC to beans.  With the rise in bean price to corn, beans are $20 an acre better than COC.  Also sold as many new crop bushels as the dollar value of the insurance guarantee the same day.  So there is still a little switching going on.

[sw363535]

don't you know, corn sweeteners take away the nausea brought on by cell phone addiction.... and the iron from grain fed red meat helps with the nearsightedness left after 2 hours a day of cell phone card games...

just sayin ................... sonic slushes at the next meeting....

Good for the loss of the "I live in Colorado" dry eye stare....

[roarintiger1]

John Denver was right......................Rocky Mountain High.