Floor Talk April 24

[marketeye]

At the close:

The July corn futures contract settled 2 1/4 cents lower at $5.07. The Dec. corn futures finished 1 3/4 cents lower at $5.02. The July soybean futures contract closed 5 1/4 cents higher at $14.70. The Nov. soybean futures finished 3 1/2 cents higher at $12.31. July wheat futures closed 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.96 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract ended $1.70 per short ton higher at $470.70. The July soyoil futures closed $0.08 higher at $42.86.


In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 71 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures contract is trading 1 cent lower at $5.08. The Dec. corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $5.04. The July soybean futures contract is 2 cents lower at $14.62. The Nov. soybean futures are trading unchanged at $12.27. July wheat futures are 13 3/4 cents higher at $6.96 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $0.30 per short ton higher at $469.30. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.12 lower at $42.66.


In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 22 points higher.

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, sizes up today's market activity like this:  "It is a very quiet trade except for Wheat which remains a weather play.  No real rain in the forecasts for the southwest Great Plains and the Wheat there will get stressed.  Also talking some heat out that way for the next few days to stress the crop even more.  Ukraine is a little hotter which does not hurt bullish ideas here at all.  But beans and corn with nothing really going on.  The price action for both not all that positive given the strength in wheat.  Export sales really bad for beans, just what the market wanted to see.  Plus, the July-Nov bean spread is breaking and testing support.  I am telling producers to sell into rallies and to start to get some pricing done," he says.

Mike

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At 10:15am:

Regarding soybean spreads, I just got a note from the floor with this notice:

"May option expiration this Friday....this market is setting up for a huge move....own gamma"

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures contract is trading 2 cents higher at $5.11. The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $5.07. The July soybean futures contract is 5 cents higher at $14.70. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $12.28. July wheat futures are 11 cents higher at $6.94 per bushel. The July soymeal futures contract is trading $2.10 per short ton lower at $471.10. The July soyoil futures are trading $0.18 lower at $42.60. 
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.23 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

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At 8am:

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report:

Corn=1.001 million tons, vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-800,000 metric tons

Soybeans= 119,000 tons, vs. the trade's expectations of (250,000)-100,000 metric tons

Wheat=610,800 tons, vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-450,000 metric tons

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans mixed, and wheat 8-10 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mixed.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.23 per barrel lower.
Dollar= Lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher, with more company earnings reports.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

StatsCan released Canadian acreage estimates Thursday, according to the Dow Jones Newswire:

The following table is a recap of Statistics 
Canada's acreage report for the period ended March 31, 2014. 
Pre-report expectations are provided for comparison purposes. 
Figures are in million acres. 
 
          StatsCan       PreReport     StatsCan 
          Mar 2014       Estimates      2013/14 
Canola      19.801    20.000 - 22.000    19.936 
All Wheat   24.936    23.500 - 25.200    26.257 
Durum        4.835     4.500 -  4.900     4.965 
Barley       6.310     6.100 -  7.200     7.083 
Flaxseed     1.715     1.100 -  1.500     1.035 
Oats         3.188     2.900 -  3.600     3.168 
Peas         3.975     3.300 -  3.800     3.285 
Lentils      2.860     2.500 -  2.800     2.393 

What do you think of the numbers? All Wheat acreage too high? Plus, I thought the Canadians were planting more corn? Where are those numbers?

[marketeye]

This table shows corn acreage:

Following is Statistics Canada's 2014/15 
(Aug/Jul) estimates of principal field crop area report. The 
figures are as of March 31, 2014, in thousands of acres. 
Source: Statistics Canada. 
 
                 -------acres------- 
                  March      Actual 
                   2014        2013 
Barley            6,311       7,083 
Canola           19,801      19,936 
Corn for grain    3,369       3,689 
Flaxseed          1,715       1,035 
Lentils           2,860       2,393 
Oats              3,188       3,168 
Dry field peas    3,975       3,285 
Soybeans          5,264       4,519 
Summerfallow      3,370       3,875 
All wheat        24,936      26,257 
Durum wheat       4,835       4,965 
Spring wheat     17,978      19,043 
Winter wheat      1,954       2,008 

[Canuck_2]

There is probably going to be a reduction in winter wheat, soft red mostly, in Ontario as the stands are rather poor in many fields this spring.

Have heard the number of at least 200,000 acres will get the Roundup treatment.

Also indications corn area will shrink some more to the advantage of soys.

Perhaps the reduced wheat area will replace the corn shrinkage.

[giolucas]

Bullish sales, so I guess the market is going down.

[Canuck_2]

I am not from the west but have heard that there is a move to more canola out there at the expense of wheat.

I did notice that guesses were higher than Stats Can figures for canola.

[Canuck5]

Stats Canada kind of surprised some folks this morning with a lower canola acreage than thought.  It's even a bit lower than last year, when all the conventional wisdom was saying probably a million more acres.  I suspect soys are taking some acres from canola, especially in Manitoba and eastern Saskatchewan.  Farmers are looking at lower cost of production, and with a shortage of N soys will take acres from canola.  Canola seed is getting too expensive relative to the risk of growing it.

But .... I might be wrong!  Market is yawning.  If it was 'really' expecting 20 mil acres of canola, it isn't showing in the price movement.   At least not now.  I expect it will.  The canola market has a tendancy to have a 2 to 3 day delayed response time to news or even on spreads against soyoil/beans.

But DYODD!!  My ideas are worth what you paid

[northernfarmer]

only ones talking about increased canola acreage has been the seed dealers and the traders... farmers are tired of the high cost of the crop and poor results, add the terrible shipping/delivery issues this winter and the resulting low price and the increased seed costs.. canola will be pushed with increased soy planting.

I suspect canola acres will be lower then the Stats Can figures.

personally my canola acres will be down 40% from past years

[c-x-1]

y'all like Scoville's comments re: bean export sales - "really bad for beans???"

wonder from what perspective he come-ith? -- here US is 1.61 mil tons OVERcommitted for the year...exported over 100 thousand this week..

........... aren't ANY sales (anything above zero) positive/supportive to mkt in this scenario?

as ECIN says--just shakin' my head here.