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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

At the close:

 

At the close, the May corn futures settled 3/4¢ higher at $3.47 1/2. July corn futures ended 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.57 1/4.

May soybean futures closed 4¢ higher at $8.59 1/2. July soybean futures finished 4¢ higher at $8.72 3/4.

 

July wheat futures closed 3¢ higher at $4.41 1/2.



 

July soymeal futures ended $5.60 per short ton higher at $309.60.

 July soy oil futures settled $0.28 cent lower at 27.94¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.61 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 79 points lower.

 

Mike

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At midsession:

 

At midsession, the May corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.46. July corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.55.

May soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.57 1/2. July soybean futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $8.71.

 

July wheat futures are 1/2¢ higher at $4.39.



 

July soymeal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $305.00.

 July soy oil futures are $0.15 cent lower at 28.07¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.10 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 120 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 9:25am:

 

In early trading, the May corn futures are 4¢ lower at $3.42 3/4. July corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.52.

May soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $8.56. July soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $8.69 1/2.

 

July wheat futures are 3¢ lower at $4.35.



 

July soymeal futures are $0.30 short ton lower at $303.70.

 July soy oil futures are $0.04 cent lower at 28.18¢ per pound.



 

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.05 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 217 points lower.

 

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that The selling continues for U.S. grain prices.

 

“As we get closer to delivery for the May contracts, it feels like we are getting a little more selling pressure. Many producers are pricing out some May contracts. The US crop is getting planted and for the most part weather is a non-event today. ,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.

 

Kluis added, “The funds have built a very large short position. With the carry in the market already at some attractive levels, this could incentivize the funds to continue to roll their short positions forward.”

 

 

Export Sales Report

 

On Thursday, the USDA’s Weekly Export Sales Report weak soybean, corn figures.

 

Corn= 782,900 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 550,000-1.100,000 mmt.

 

Soybeans= 619,000 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000 mt.-700,000 mt.

 

Wheat= 651,500 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000-750,000 mt.

 

Soybean meal= 398,000 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 125,000-325,000 mt.

 

Mike

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6 Replies
Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

"The US crop is getting planted, and weather is a non-event"

 

Have to invent a new word, instead of body shame-ing, this is farmer shame-ing for at least 8 of the major corn states who clearly should be out planting today.

 

Al ole buddy, This crop is not getting planted at normal rates, and it surely won't be the next few days.

 

Back to your regularly scheduled despair from Suc Farming :-)

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

Not planting here rain 7 out of the next 10 days. Snow possible Saturday 😢
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

"The US crop is getting planted, and weather is a non-event"

 

Sums up trader attitudes until it's end of May with nothing planted. 

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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

Which would all be well and good if you were using a reasonable 171 yield number, you are not, you

are using a 177.5 or record yield assumption. Lots of serious participants know that it has to be planted

by May 12th for max yield, not May 30th. 

 

But yes, the trade  (not the users who are record long) nor the farmers (who watching the

days slip by) is correct, there is a record yield in the bin.

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

I normally appreciate Al's commentary.   However this time, Al Kluless has not considered the whole corn belt. 

 

Over seven inches of rain in my neck of the woods in the last 10 days might not get the corn planted timely.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, April 25, 2019

If I just look at my backyard, I`d say this spring is actually a normal spring albeit slower.   A fair amount of corn and some beans planted already and if we get what usually happens, 30 days of solid rain in May, those crazies will come out smelling like a rose....like always.  I comment on their gravity defying successful craziness, but am never brave enough to do what they do....that`s maybe why my pickup is the 3rd oldest at the the farm meeting parking lot   Smiley Happy

 

I`ve sat in on too many Precision Planting seminars where where they warn "don`t let your seed`s first drink of water be a cold one! It`ll kill the germination".  But year after year farmers ignore that warning, planting into a cold rain, snow and everything else and have to put up a new bin as a result.  I`m thinking go hard after this weekend`s 1/2" predicted snow, as soon as I can.  First year I farmed on my own, I was a good boy, planted on May 5th and it got cold and the corn took 3 weeks to come up, I rotary hoed it and everything and it turned out good....but May 5th and took 3 weeks to come up!

 

But last year we were in a terrible wet band 50 miles to the north and 50 miles to the south they were doing their cocky dance that "Got done, monster crop a commin` "  and enough believed that fantasy that it sounds like it came true, North Iowa and Southern Minnesota wasn`t needed to build a burdensome carryover.  I mean you can plant on May 25th and have a respectable crop, but it`ll probably be wet ....but the drying bill is your problem  Smiley Happy

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