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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk April 25

After the close:

USDA rates U.S. corn plantings as 30% complete.

 

Those planters are wide and those tractors are fast.

 

Mike

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At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures settled 6 1/4 cents higher at $3.81 3.4, of its high, Dec. futures finished 6 3/4 cents higher at $3.87 3/4 per bushel . July soybean futures finished 13 1/2 cents higher at $10.09 3/4, with a 43-cent trading range, while Nov. soybean futures closed 14 3/4 cents higher at $9.97. July wheat futures ended 3 3/4 cents higher at $4.77 3/4. July soymeal futures closed $4.90 short ton higher at $319.50. July soyoil futures closed $0.10 lower at $34.20.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.72 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 68 points lower.

 

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says that the market continues to see fund buying in the bean market today. It's also supported by a weaker dollar. Plus, grain markets like to have some kind of price premium in this time of year, in case of planting delays or weather problems. And, slow farmer-selling is adding to the rally."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the July corn futures are trading 9 3/4 cents higher at $3.85, Dec. futures are 8 cents higher at $3.89 per bushel . July soybean futures are 25 1/4 cents higher at $10.21, while Nov. soybean futures are 22 3/4 cents higher at $10.05. July wheat futures are 7 1/4 cents higher at $4.81. July soymeal futures trade $9.00 short ton higher at $323.60. July soyoil futures are $0.14 higher at $34.44.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.21 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 112 points lower.

 

CME Group floor sources say that it's a little confusing why the markets ar rallying. It could be that the funds or some large spec saw the soybean market hit $9.88, felt like that was a good entry point, and as a result is pushing this thing up.

 

Yet another trader replied like this: "I'm a little lost. Big volatility swing causing another gamma short to get squeezed. Some further talk of problems in Argentina and Uruguay with production.
Personally I think its overdone but shorting it has killed the trade recently and people freak out quickly."

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 4 3/4 cents higher at $3.80, Dec. futures are 4 3/4 cents higher at $3.85 per bushel . July soybean futures are 1/4 of a cent lower at $9.96, while Nov. soybean futures are 2 1/4 cents higher at $9.85. July wheat futures are 2 1/2 cents higher at $4.76. July soymeal futures trade $2.50 short ton lower at $312.10. July soyoil futures are $0.09 higher at $34.39.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.15 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points lower.

 

Mike

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Soybeans fell overnight again, continuing their downward trajectory from Friday, as the large amount of net-longs are making non-speculators nervous. Money managers are a notoriously skittish bunch and when they all rush to one side and the boat starts tipping, well ... we all know what happens. That said, they've been very well-behaved for about the past year without the huge swings dominating the markets, at least until last week. It'll be interesting to see if they want to hold onto their contracts or if they'll jump ship. 

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.5% lower. 

West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.8% lower.

Dollar = down 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly lower in pre-market trading. 
World Markets = Global stocks decline as oil prices fall.

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7 Replies
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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Tony
Can you give us an update on argentine weather
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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

I find the talk about the drop in oil prices being a big reason behind global stock market downturns quite interesting. It doesn't seem long ago that I was reading a lot about how the high oil prices were stifling growth and hence weighing stock markets down...........

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Agricultural forecasters at MDA INformation Services say the wet weather is supposed to continue through at least this week in northern areas, whihc will continue to delay harvest and reduce crop prospects. Outside of that I've heard anywhere from a million hectares to 10 million have been affected. 

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Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Tony,

 


@Tony_Dreibus wrote:

Agricultural forecasters at MDA INformation Services say the wet weather is supposed to continue through at least this week in northern areas, whihc will continue to delay harvest and reduce crop prospects. Outside of that I've heard anywhere from a million hectares to 10 million have been affected. 


 
See if you can get some Brazil corn farm prices, I know of 60,000 priced new corn last week for $4.80 was in Bahai and would be picked up at farm.

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

ihtractortherap,

 

This could be the most interesting market insights today. My Argentina market analyst says:

 

Buenos Aires Cereal Exchange cut 4 mill tons from the Argentina soybean crop on Thursday from 60 to 56 million tons. I don't remember such a cut in just one week. And they leave the door open for more cuts. This is just getting started because the rain will stop, but much of the damage is already done. AFA, a huge agricutural asociation, talk of 8 million tons cut," the analyst says.

 

Mike

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Makes me think that all those low quality beans that we know the handlers will blend in will make the buyers of Argentina beans think of other sources, to avoid buying blended crap...

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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Judging by today's price action, it seems a lot of investors would agree. 

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