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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk April 25

At the close:

The July corn futures settled 7 cents lower at $6.01. The July soybean contract ended 11 cents higher  $14.76, and hit as high as $14.96 per bushel. The July wheat futures closed 6 cents lower at $6.26 1/2. The July soymeal futures settled $1.50 per short ton higher at $417.20 and July soyoil futures up $0.34 at $56.03. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.70 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 70 points.

 

Mike

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At 11:45am:

The Fed announces it will keep rates at near zero until late 2014. What do you think this means for the corn market?

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The July corn futures trade 4 1/4 cents lower at $6.03 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 13 cents higher  $14.78, and hit as high as $14.96 per bushel. The July wheat futures are trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $6.25 1/2. The July soymeal futures are trading $3.90 per short ton higher at $419.60 and July soyoil futures up $0.22 at $55.91. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 65 points.

 

One floor trader says, 'Soybeans have plenty of support, while corn needs some weather help. Soybeans are going higher, with Argentina's crop below 40.0 metric tons. With it too late to change planting decision in U.S., the soybean/corn price ratio will go to 3.0-to-1 in sx /cz. Corn will go higher on weather only. The government has shown us they will not take carryout below 800 million bushels," he says.

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

 

Corn and wheat have fallen into negative territory. Soybeans have given up some its huge gains on the open.

 

Contract spread trading, by selling corn and buying beans, may have something to do with a falling corn market. Also, I'm hearing frost-like weather threats for the Midwest, are weakening. Corn planting weather will get wet, but a drying period is set to quickly follow. And, the International Grains Council is expected to release lower Argentina soybean production estimates tomorrow. Another piece of steak for the bulls.

 

During the noon hour today, the Fed Reserve is expected to offer up thoughts on any further quantitative easing for the U.S. economy. That will be highly watched by the trade. 

 

Mike

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At the open:

The July corn futures trade 8 3/4 cents higher at $6.16 3/4. The July soybean contract is trading 30 cents higher  $14.95. The July wheat futures are trading 8 cents higher at $6.40 1/2. The July soymeal futures opened $7.90 per short ton higher at $423.60 and July soyoil futures up $0.46 at $56.15. 
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are up 86 points.

 

Mike

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At 8:20am:

Now I'm a little confused. USDA is now reporting 172,500 mt of U.S. corn was sold to China for 2012-13.

 

A lot of corn has been sold this morning.

 

Mike

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At 8am:

--USDA announces Wednesday that an 'unknown' bought 420,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2012-13 delivery.

--USDA announces Wednesday that China bought 90,000 mt of U.S. corn for 2011-12 delivery.

 

Oh boy, the corn is flying off of the shelf this morning!

 

Mike

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At 7:45am:

--Japan seeks 320,000 mt of feed wheat, barley.

 

Meanwhile, the rumor is that China bought 500,000 mt of U.S. soybeans yesterday. We might find out at 8am. Also, more talk that China may be in the market for 2.0 mmt of U.S. corn soon.

 

The July/Nov soybean spread reached a high $1.30, with July the premium month.

 

I'm not sure how much more bullish this bean market can get. What say you?

 

Mike

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At 6:20 am:

Early calls: Corn 5-7 cents higher, soybeans 25-28 cents higher, and wheat 5-7 cents higher. WoW! $15 beans in sight?

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.50 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Lower.
Wall Street=Seen trading higher after 3M and Apple Inc earnings beat expectations.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific mixed, Europe's stocks higher.

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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25 Replies
roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Mike,    Are there any resistance levels in the bean market?

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

2008 highs............$16.52..............

 

actually $15 first...........then from there it could be a scary ride higher............

 

I would be selling into this rally on soya...........

 

and let corn ride...........IMO a similar move in corn is just around the corner.............

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Mizzou_Tiger,

 

For a run like soybeans are seeing, corn is going to need a weather scare that's worse than the cold temps on the already planted crop and the frost expected this weekend. Don't you think? Two weeks of rain, keeping farmers out of the field might do it.

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

roarintiger1,

 

Nov. beans resistance was $14.08. But, that was late last week. That contract traded as high as $13.71 overnight.

 

Mike

 

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p-oed Farmer
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

I tend to agree with MT ....... We are IMHO selling corn to China that we do not have........ USDA is doing a diservice to US end users by letting the world think we have plenty of corn to go around..... Soy will make a run now at getting acres switched from corn back to beans ....... spread worked yesterday with beans up and corn down........ p-oed

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Mike we will know more in a couple of weeks.......but there are many things lining up
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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Looks like China stuck its head in the door this morning and asked, "Any corn in here?"

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Hobbyfarmer
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

How long before someone sells something that he does not have and can not source?

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BreanaW
Senior Reader

Re: Floor Talk April 25

I have listed $14.74 as first resistance and $14.87 as second resistance. Have we found out if the soybean sales were rumors or actuals yet?

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