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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

too,

 

I see it as profit-taking and spread trading. Corn is a sell right now, until a fine weather scare. Yes, China will underpin the market by buying on the dips. But, to really get a hummer of a rally, more uncertainty needs to slither onto the scene. Though if beans keep rallying, maybe corn gets pulled up with it?

 

Mike

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Farmerjoe79
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

Nothing surprises me about these markets anymore.
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Limit-up
Friend

Re: Floor Talk April 25

All this new volume in spreading in the corn and beans is starting to piss me off. Upredictable unwinding seams to be the theme as of late. 

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Buckley_HF
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

"Corn will go higher on weather only. The government has shown us they will not take carryout below 800 million bushels," he says. Does this statement from the trader scare anyone else? Because of the latest USDA report, Chicago now has a set in stone mentality corn co is fine and there is no need to push prices higher to ration any demand. March 30 report be darned. We are fine. Keep letting corn fly off shelves at 6$. It's been said but I'll say it again, cash and paper markets now are playing two different games, not even on same planet.
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agmr
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

DEJA VU ??? .....

 

Did the rains fall?

12-21-2011 12:24 PM

We may get some rains in SA in the next days, weeks , months. We hope and pray for .

But, saying that , and assuming everthing turns out  perfect weatherwise till the end of the season, we already lost 8 to 10 millions tons of beans in Argentina, Paraguay and Brazil combined.

Early planted beans are almost dead in a wide area on those 3 countries. Even we get good weather to "think" about the possibility of replanting them ( and we have abt a couple weeks to achieve that, not more ) , those would be low yield - short cicle varities.

1) In Argentina abt 15-20% of intended acreage has not been planted yet . They have till abt  jan 15th to plant (low yield seeds) .

2) In Brazil you have the north and center producing states OK . Parana and RGDS under a lot of stress . In RGDS 40 % of the corn is lost. Some farmers are already combining it for milk producing cows. I cant  rarely see them replacing those fields with beans as I read in some news. Lack of time and seed availability the main hurdles. But , in case they do, again... low yield seeds.

3) In Paraguay , with a ttl estimated production of 9 million tons , 20% is already toasted. There is turn around on those.

So, forget abt SA record crop.

WHAAAAAAAAATTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTTT??????????????

 

12-21-2011 12:38 PM

SA crop is not going to be a record???????????????

 

HMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMMM...............

 

course that doesn't matter because the macro story means less demand so we should be good...................SARCASM!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!​!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!


 

Re: Floor Talk January 11

Options

01-11-2012 10:15 AM

no matter wht usda report tomm or SA weather improving.... The big picture is wht  we guess its of more importance....

you have to sharp ur  pencil .... do ur math ... and try to come up on how 20mln  tons lost of corn and bns in SA  will finally impact pxs.... ball is on ur camp

:


 

 

 Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

Options

03-09-2012 07:32 AM

Remainder : WATCH OUT ..... Weather , Argentina

The next 20  fall begins , marking a major change in the climate scenario, which will go from warm and humid conditions that prevailed during the summer to an environment with low rainfall and frequent cold air intakes that characterizes the season .

From mch 15-21  will continue to have  blowing winds from the south, emphasizing the drop in temperatures.

The central and southern Cordoba, northeastern La Pampa, the south of Santa Fe, southern Entre Rios and Buenos Aires observed minimum temperatures below 10 ° C, with a focus on values ​​lower than 5 ° C on some parts of southeastern Buenos Aires.
The northeast of San Luis, the center of Cordoba and Buenos Aires  recorded minimum temperatures below 10 ° Celsius. Although this phenomenon does not represent an immediate risk, the low temperatures that prevail for several days delay the crops implanted late – about 20 %-, increasing their vulnerability to more intense cold weather that ussually  takes place later

 

 

 

 

 

Re: Floor Talk January 11

Options

01-11-2012 10:15 AM

no matter wht usda report tomm or SA weather improving.... The big picture is wht  we guess its of more importance....

you have to sharp ur  pencil .... do ur math ... and try to come up on how 20mln  tons lost of corn and bns in SA  will finally impact pxs.... ball is on ur camp

 

: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

Options

03-09-2012 07:32 AM

Remainder : WATCH OUT ..... Weather , Argentina

The next 20  fall begins , marking a major change in the climate scenario, which will go from warm and humid conditions that prevailed during the summer to an environment with low rainfall and frequent cold air intakes that characterizes the season .

From mch 15-21  will continue to have  blowing winds from the south, emphasizing the drop in temperatures.

The central and southern Cordoba, northeastern La Pampa, the south of Santa Fe, southern Entre Rios and Buenos Aires observed minimum temperatures below 10 ° C, with a focus on values ​​lower than 5 ° C on some parts of southeastern Buenos Aires.
The northeast of San Luis, the center of Cordoba and Buenos Aires  recorded minimum temperatures below 10 ° Celsius. Although this phenomenon does not represent an immediate risk, the low temperatures that prevail for several days delay the crops implanted late – about 20 %-, increasing their vulnerability to more intense cold weather that ussually  takes place later

Re: Floor Talk March 9 (Report Day)

Options

03-09-2012 09:45 AM

thanks

all our farmers are long here even with higher premiums every day . Short crops get shorter. From tdys numbers , conservately , cut 1 mln in PY , 1 mln ARg and 1 mln BRZ

 

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Nebrfarmr
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 25

One floor trader says, 'Soybeans have plenty of support, while corn needs some weather help. Soybeans are going higher, with Argentina's crop below 40.0 metric tons. With it too late to change planting decision in U.S., the soybean/corn price ratio will go to 3.0-to-1 in sx /cz. Corn will go higher on weather only. The government has shown us they will not take carryout below 800 million bushels," he says.

 

 

I would disagree with that.  I got seed delivered on Monday, and again yesterday evening, from two different companies, and both salesmen said that for the most part, people are just starting out in this area, and many are switching out for bean seed, and hinting they may do more if bean prices keep going up in relation to corn.

Unless the fields were fall fertilized (about 25% around here) there still is the potential to switch a lot of acres in central & Western Nebraska.  Some guys were just looking for an excuse to switch dryland fields to beans, as they do better in a dry year as this is starting out to be.

Not saying that a lot of acres WILL be switched to beans, just saying there is time enough, quite a few acres MIGHT be.

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