Floor Talk April 27, 2021

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures contract closed 15¢ higher at $6.95, after hitting $7.20 per bushel overnight.

July corn futures finished 3¢ lower at $6.54 1/4. New crop December corn futures closed 6¢ lower at $5.62 3/4.

May soybean futures settled 19 1/4¢ lower at $15.49 1/4. July soybean futures finished 19 3/4¢ lower at $15.19 1/2. New crop November soybean futures closed 19 1/2¢ lower at $13.42 1/4.

July wheat futures ended 6 3/4¢ lower at $7.32 1/4.



July soymeal futures settled $4.70 short ton lower at $426.80.


July soy oil futures closed -0.01 lower at 60.88¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is +0.69 higher (+1.11%) at $62.60. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 3 points higher (+0.01%) at 33,984 points.

Mike

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At midsession:

At midsession, the May corn futures contract is 24¢ higher at $7.05, after hitting $7.20 per bushel overnight.

July corn futures are 9 1/4¢ higher at $6.67 1/4. New crop December corn futures are 4¢ higher at $5.72 3/4.

May soybean futures are 1/4¢ higher at $15.69 1/4. July soybean futures are 1¢ lower at $15.38 1/2. New crop November soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ lower at $13.59 1/4.

July wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $7.43 1/4.



July soymeal futures are $1.60 short ton lower at $429.90.


July soy oil futures are +0.61 higher at 61.50¢ per pound.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is +0.49 higher (+0.79%) at $62.40. The U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points lower (-0.04%) at 33,966 points.

Mike

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Old-crop corn reaches $7.20, marches toward $8.00.

Mike

[rickgthf]

Sure things are a little tight but are they that tight?

[Whitesand_Farms]

They ran out of grain. The usda will lie that stocks are huge but we all know that’s bs.

[sw363535]

IMO,  yes we are that tight.

Feedlots have their own way to protect themselves ...... silage stored, wet corn stored in bunkers , owned ground piles, etc

But we been short of corn on the demand side since September when we knew the sw crop was dry and stressed, then the Iowa crop took a big hit with wind....... and insurance paid so they had to plow up in order to get the check.  (a lot of salvage grain went in the ground).  There were just too many problems that usda was ignoring.  Including the market going up through harvest, which meant feeders were buying hard to insure supply later.   Here in the feedlot Mecca we had brokers going door to door with farmers offering higher basis bids than we had seen in years--- during harvest.  I was reporting it here and (this is an example of why us folks from different areas and circumstance should learn from this flow of information).    Yes there was a shortage and signals of it all along.  

I appreciate what you present here, but I wonder if you disrespect the midwest so much that you don't listen-- being from the east.  Usda is doing budget computations for federal planning purposes, not marketing services.  We in the midwest think they forget that.  When we see activity that does not fit projections we have doubts, and appropriately should.  When compared the Great Plains Feeding industry buys as much or more grain than china buys from the US.

Not jabbing at you, just saying I have more faith in real market factors than potential projected ones.  And when feedlots decide to buy far more than usual, or Iowa has 30% crop damage, those are big factors when you consider the share of the market they use and produce.

The Southern Hemisphere droughts the last couple of years factor in big also........ and IMO, there is a pipeline factor for poor crops that says the real market loss comes a year later.

Speaking of pipeline problems..... the ships anchored waiting on container unloads in the Southern California area tells us something else....... trains passing through our little midwestern towns transport asian containers to all points east continuously has an affect as well.  Redistributing short commodity supplies is not as easy as getting new tennis shoes from China.

It's not a good time to have a short crop after we took an economic recess for the last year.

[rickgthf]

But with one ethanol plant shut down here, the feed mills (PA & NY) are full and got the go-slow on incoming trucks, or so they tell me, at least.  So, despite a short crop last year in both PA & NY (drought) there still seems to be plenty of corn available here, judging from the basis, anyhow.

  Maybe we should start shipping corn west this year,  just like they talk about shipping soybeans into NC from Brazil every year.

[sw363535]

Thats good local analysis... and you might be seeing it accurately..... I always figure there are 3 reasons for what looks obvious and two of them are more likely than what I thought of.... 

And you have to weigh the local issues for each of us... we all see the back yard clearly.  But our markets are now global and if the market we are watching uses a few million bushels it is not going to affect market prices -- be it short or long.  

But when livestock feeding(ethanol and direct consumption--they both end up in the bunk or feeder) and exports start making unusual moves we need to watch it.  Same as weather in Iowa, Illinois and Nebraska but not so much in N Dakota or Texas.... or East of Iowa.  

Several of us are looking back through the last few months and reconsidering the early indicators... My second thought every time is how much of the market does this affect....  Here in the okla panhandle and sw we have a very unique look at where about 3 to 4 billion bushels of grain usage gets fed and slaughtered.   Hobby, BA, Wind, Illini, wcmo and the others around Iowa have a great look at the bread basket of corn, beans production Producing  half the production of us all.... The weather issues in August were a hammer on the heart of our grain production. 

[k-289]

Shipping  commodities  is  NOW  making  national  headlines  ,  while  the  handwringing  has  begun  -  -  -

The  experts  in  the  mega  carrier  arena ,  experiencing  of '''  the  chickens  coming  to  roost '''  of  the  word  CHEAP --- 

[sw363535]

Remember this winter when we were watching all the ships anchored in ports waiting for beans?  And now the west coast ports have a supply of container ships waiting to unload.... Highly unlikely there are that many "extra" freighters in the world.  Maybe there were reasons they were waiting for a load other than being out of commodities.  Maybe they were just trying to find a load in slow times.

[k-289]

Truck  Driver  shortages  across  the  board ,  are  being  addressed  by  the  name  brands  clamoring  these  drivers  make  lots  of  money ,  why  are  they  not  responding - - -

Typical ,  Board  Of  Director ,  message ,  bumble - fumble  - of  NOT   WALKING  A  MILE  IN  SOMEONE's  SHOES -  -  -