Floor Talk, April 30, 2019
At the close:
At the close, the July corn futures finished 3/4¢ higher at $3.62 1/2. Sept. corn futures settled 1/2¢ higher at $3.70 1/2.
July soybean futures settled 6 3/4¢ lower at $8.54. Aug. soybean futures ended 6 3/4¢ lower at $8.60.
July wheat futures closed 6 1/2¢ lower at $4.28 1/4.
July soymeal futures finished $0.80 per short ton lower at $300.10. July soy oil futures finished $0.31 cent lower at 27.88¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.33 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points higher.
At midsession, the July corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.59 1/2. Sept. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.67 3/4.
July soybean futures are 8¢ lower at $8.52 3/4. Aug. soybean futures 7 3/4¢ lower at $8.59.
July wheat futures are 7¢ lower at $4.28 1/4.
July soymeal futures are $0.90 per short ton lower at $300.00.
July soy oil futures are $0.31 cent lower at 27.88¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.33 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 18 points lower.
Peter J. Meyer, S&P Global Platt’s Head of Grain and Oilseed Analytics, says that it’s an obviously very difficult market environment.
“On one hand, you have the record Fund shorts in corn and soybeans with poor planting conditions, which seems to be the focus of those trying to “will” the markets higher. On the other hand, you have farmers that are long a good chunk of last year’s corn crop, have very few hedges on for new crop corn or beans and are unwilling to sell,” Meyer says.
Meyer adds, “Too much focus is being placed on the Fund short, as something that needs to be reversed at some point and thus causing a rally. The Funds are entrenched, based on weakening demand, and have rolled their shorts since late last year, gaining the same “carry” that is supposedly helping the farmer. A majority of those Fund corn shorts have a 30+ cent cushion as a result and have been buying cheap Calls against their position as insurance.”
In the end, any rally at this point will need to be production-based, as demand for both U.S. corn and beans remains suspect, Meyer says.
“The markets remain “worn out” by all the Trade War resolution rhetoric. Should a production rally occur, it should be sold,” Meyer says.
In early trading, the July corn futures are 3/4¢ lower at $3.61. Sept. corn futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.69.
July soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $8.56 1/2. Aug. soybean futures 4¢ lower at $8.62 3/4.
July wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.31.
July soymeal futures are $0.80 per short ton lower at $300.10. July soy oil futures are $0.12 cent lower at 28.07¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.47 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points lower.
Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are keeping a close eye on planting weather.
“Keep an eye on the extended weather forecasts. The next 10 days look very wet. Then it may dry out a bit, but 15-day forecasts are more subject to change. With planting behind the average pace and wet weather in the next 10 days, the focus will be the extended maps,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.
Kluis added, “Once the wheat market started to head south, that pulled corn and soybeans off their highs. Winter wheat conditions are off to one of the best starts in 20 years. The huge wheat supply in the U.S. and world puts wheat futures under pressure.”
What say you?
Re: Floor Talk, April 30, 2019
Re: Floor Talk, April 30, 2019
Just keep exporting our wealth through labor