Floor Talk April 4

[marketeye]

Update: New information on the Your World In Agriculture page indicates Brazil's corn output is dropping. Once on the page, click on Luis Vieira, Brazilian contributor, to read full story.

-----------------------------------

At the close:

The May corn futures contract settled 1 3/4 cents higher at $5.01. The Dec. corn futures finished 5 cents higher at $5.06. The May soybean futures contract ended 1 1/2 cents lower at $14.73. The Nov. soybean futures closed 5 cents higher at $12.08. May wheat futures settled 6 cents lower at $6.69 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract finished $1.00 per short ton lower at $479.10. The May soyoil futures closed $0.10 lower at $41.57.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.83 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 155 points lower.

Mike

--------

At mid-session:

The May corn futures contract is trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $4.94. The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 cents lower at $4.99. The May soybean futures contract is 11 1/2 cents lower at $14.63. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 1 1/4 cents lower at $12.02. May wheat futures are 12 3/4 cents lower at $6.63 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $6.60 per short ton lower at $473.50. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.13 lower at $41.54.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.86 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

Mike

-------

In early trading:

The May corn futures contract is trading 5 1/2 cents lower at $4.94. The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 1/2 cents lower at $4.98. The May soybean futures contract is 4 cents lower at $14.71. The Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 cents lower at $12.01. May wheat futures are 11 1/4 cents lower at $6.64 per bushel. The May soymeal futures contract is trading $3.20 per short ton lower at $476.90. The May soyoil futures are trading $0.07 lower at $41.60.
In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil is $0.34 per barrel higher, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points higher.

Mike

----------

At 7:50am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents lower, soybeans 3-5 cents higher, and wheat 7-9 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.34 per barrel higher.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher, as 192,000 U.S. jobs added in March bringing the unemployment rate to 6.7%. The market sees this as bullish.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher, Europe stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[marketeye]

Here's how Allendale Inc. sees the USDA's April 9th Report coming out:

Corn - For this report, we see higher revisions for exports and ethanol. Argentina corn production is estimated at 24 million tonnes (USDA 24 mt) and Brazil corn at 70 (USDA's 70 mt).
 
Soybeans - Exports are seen increased on this report. USDA may balance that with higher imports. Argentina soybean production is estimated at 54 million tonnes (USDA 54.0 mt) and Brazil is at 87.5 mt (USDA 88.5 mt).
 
Wheat - We expect exports to be lowered on this report.
 
     Supply & Demand, to be RELEASED ON 4/9/14
 
US ENDING STOCKS            USDA     USDA     ALDL
in million bushels                      12/13    13/14    13/14
US Corn                                     821     1456     1406
US Beans                                   141      145      135
US Wheat                                     718      558      579
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS         USDA     USDA      ALDL
in million metric tonnes                  12/13      13/14       13/14
World Corn                                     134.67   158.47    157.11
World Soybeans                              57.79    70.64     69.80
World Wheat                                    175.92   183.81    183.55

What do you think? Is that U.S. soybean number tight enough? What else sticks out at you, regarding these estimates?

Thanks,

Mike

[Palouser]

For wheat, for the reasons I've already outlined below, I think the free stocks for trade means the year end inventory is close to 100 - 110 MMT. That's not near what assumptions are.

[roarintiger1]

They are not lowering the soybean number below 145.