Floor Talk April 8

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the July corn futures closed 3 3/4 cents lower at $3.79 1/4 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 3 cents lower at $4.04 3/4 per bushel.
May soybean futures finished 1/2 of a cent higher at $9.71 1/2. Nov. soybean futures closed 2 3/4 cents lower at $9.60 1/2. May soybean meal futures closed $0.20 short ton higher at $319.90. May soyoil futures ended $0.08 lower at $30.95. 

May wheat futures closed 1/4 of a cent higher at $5.26 1/4.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $2.80 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, the July corn futures are trading 5 1/4 cents lower at $3.77 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are trading 5 cents lower at $4.02 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 1/4 of a cent lower at $9.70. Nov. soybean futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $9.60. 

May wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent lower at $5.25.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $2.56 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 33 points higher.

Anne Frick, Sr. VP/Futures Research, Jefferies Bache, LLC, says that there does not appear to be news or much going on.
“I think the USDA may come out tomorrow with a soybean carryover below the average estimate. But, when you are talking about a carryover above 300 mil bu, 20 mil bu one way of the other is fairly meaningless.
It is probably telling that there was news this week about the problem at the port of Santos and it could not provide much if any support,” Frick says.

Mike

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At 11:40am:

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 936,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 39.31 million gallons daily, according to the Renewable Fuels Association press release. That is down 16,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 947,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.52 billion gallons.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 20.5 million barrels. That is a 0.3% decrease from last week.

Imports of ethanol were non-existent for the 14th straight week.

Mike

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At 9:40am:

After starting higher, corn and wheat have turned lower. Soybeans remain higher.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the July corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $3.91 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $4.08 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 1 1/2 cents higher at $9.72. Nov. soybean futures are trading 3/4 of a cent higher at $9.64. 

May wheat futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $5.26.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.55 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 55 points higher.

Mike

Mike

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At 8:10am:

On Thursday, the USDA April Supply/Demand Report will be released. Here's what the trade expects:

U.S. 2014/15 Carryouts:

Corn=1.854 billion bushels. This would be the 7th triple digit move higher in the last 11 years, from the March report.

Soybeans= 370 million bushels. This move lower from March would fit the general trend, over the last 20 years.

Wheat=692 million bushels

South America's Crop production:

Argentina corn= 23.9 mmt

Argentina soybeans= 57.2 mmt

Brazil corn= 74.8 mmt

Brazl soybeans= 94.2 mmt

Mike

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At 7:30am:

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents higher, and wheat 2-4 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.82 lower.
Dollar =Lower. 
Wall Street = Seen higher, with the Fed meeting minutes to be released Wednesday, along with more earnings reports eyed.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[luisvieira]

Mike,

The port of Santos, the largest exit of grain exports in Brazil, will have its warehouses empty by Friday. The problem started with a fire on fuel terminals last week. Now, truckers cannot unload grains in the port yet because of the dangers brought by the flames. Unless the fire is extinguished, the port of Santos will not ship any grains by Thursday, according to the Brazilian Association of Vegetable and Oil Industries. This happens as nearly 62% of the Brazilian soybean crop was sold, consultancy Safras & Mercado reported.

[marketeye]

What happened to the soybeans that were already in the warehouse? Were they able to get that crop out?

Mike

[luisvieira]

Yes.....

[Hobbyfarmer]

When you say 62% sold, is that for immediate shipment or use or is part of that to be shipped 4 to 10 months from now?

[luisvieira]

This is the percentage sold by producers. Shipping time would depend on each contract.

[marketeye]

Here's a snapshot on tomorrow's USDA Supply/Demand Report:

Allendale lays it out like this:

Corn - Ending stocks are raised due to last week's Grain Stocks report. That report implied that feed/residual use was weaker than expected in the Dec-Feb quarter. We have feed/residual 150 million under USDA's March estimate, exports 20 million short of USDA, and corn for ethanol 50 million higher. Argentina corn production is estimated at 23.0 million tonnes (USDA 23.5 mt) and Brazil corn at 74 (USDA's 75.0 mt).
 
Soybeans - No significant changes are expected. Lower crush is partially offset by lower imports than USDA's March estimates. Argentina soybean production is estimated at 57.0 million tonnes (USDA 56.0 mt) and Brazil is at 94.0 mt (USDA 94.5 mt).
 
Wheat - Little change is expected. We have a higher food/seed/industrial use than USDA but lower exports.
USDA Supply & Demand (WASDE) to be Released on 04/09/2015
 
US ENDING STOCKS            USDA      USDA        ALDL
in million bushels                       13/14     14/15       14/15
US Corn                                    1232      1777        1894
US Beans                                     92       385         391
US Wheat                                   590       691         690
 
WORLD ENDING STOCKS         USDA      USDA     ALDL
in million metric tonnes                 13/14     14/15    14/15
World Corn                                 172.14    185.28   187.32
World Soybeans                           66.32     89.53    89.82
World Wheat                               187.49    197.71   197.82

What do you think? Corn stocks too high? Soybean carryout too low?

Mike

[giolucas]

We need a Miracle!! Things are too depressed.  

[elcheapo]

Oh so a trading co thinks no news..heh?

Drought.

Number of wheat claims growing

Local bid 2.00 to 3.00 over board, and

None available in the pnw

Geo your right, and your on the
"Other side of the fence"

The trade has made up their mind in
Bloc, they print it, they put it in radio
And TV, they know news media turn to
Them as "experts" they are now in control
of the markets....electronicly....

And the data points the other way

A blind lawyer, with one arm tied behind
him, missing one leg, and in a wheelchair
Could see this is racketeering .......

Also a few rules on free trade and market
Information being broken

AND NOTHING BEING DONE

you think the farm groups, which lawyers
On staff would take this cause up.


Nothing.

Everyone has become so dumb and not
Wanting to get involved, or just think that's
the way it is, and nothing can be done, and
Either crawl into the bottle, or become
Glued to the TV for sports, or working
Nonstop and don't have time to read or
Learn,

And the other side knows that, and smile.

Don't you find it ironic that everyone is
yelling....and nothing do?

Force yourself to think about it.