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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the May corn futures settled 1 1/4 cents lower at $3.78 per bushel. The Dec corn futures finished 1 1/4  cents lower at $4.03 1/2 per bushel.
May soybean futures closed 18 cents lower at $9.53 1/2. Nov. soybean futures finished 15 1/4 cents lower at $9.45 1/4. 

May wheat futures closed 7 1/2 cents lower at $5.18 3/4.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.49 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-day:

At mid-day, the May corn futures are trading 1 3/4 cents lower at $3.77 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are trading 2  cents lower at $4.02 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 16 1/4 cents lower at $9.55. Nov. soybean futures are trading 13 1/2 cents lower at $9.47. 

May wheat futures are trading 7 3/4 cents lower at $5.18 1/2.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.67 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 8 points lower.

Mike

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USDA SAYS:

 

The USDA pegged the U.S. 2014/15 corn carryout at 1.827 billion bushels, vs. the average analysts estimate at 1.851 billion bushels and the USDA’s March estimate of 1.777 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the 2014/15 U.S. carryout is estimated at 370 million bushels, compared with the average analysts estimate of 371 million and the USDA’s March estimate of 385 million.

 

The USDA sees the U.S. 2014/15 wheat ending stocks at 684 million bushels, compared with 690 million bushels and the USDA’s March estimate of 691 million.

World Carryout
The USDA sees the 2015-16 World corn carryout at 188.5 million metric tons, vs. the average analysts estimate of 187.1 mmt and the USDA March estimate of 185.3 mmt.
The World 2014-15 soybean carryout is pegged at 89.6 mmt, vs. the average analysts estimate of 89.5 mmt, and the USDA’s March estimate of 89.5 mmt, according to the World Agricultural Supply & Demand Estimate (WASDE) Report.
WASDE pegged the 2014-15 wheat carryout at 197.2 mmt, compared with the average analysts estimate of 197.4 mmt and the WASDE’s March estimate of 197.7 mmt.

 



 TRADE REACTION:

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says that today’s WASDE report held no surprises; global consumption of major grains continues to steadily rise, and current supplies remain adequate across all categories.
"Prices moving forward will be almost certainly be determined by weather; prime corn planting dates for the US corn belt are fast approaching, and traders will focus on reports from farmers regarding field access and soil moisture over the next few weeks. With the upcoming crop not yet planted, uncertainty about planting windows and germination may provide some price support in the near-term, but adequate current supplies may limit near-term upside potential as well. Weather will be traders’ main focus from this point forward."

 

--Peter Meyer, PIRA Energy grain analyst, says the report was pretty boring.
"We were not expecting much in this WASDE given the Quarterly Stocks numbers a few weeks ago and that’s exactly what happened.
Given the stocks numbers, the only “surprise” would be the 50 million bushel increase in corn ending stocks.  I would have expected at least a 100 million bushel increase but we’ll see how that works out with the 3rd quarter marketing year number in late June.
Soybean and wheat numbers were in line with expectations and no surprise.
As far as South American production is concerned, there can be little doubt that the crops are large and as advertised.  This will present a problem for U.S. exports in my estimation as larger production combined with a strong dollar will result in some pretty strong headwinds."


--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says the USDA/WASDE Reports didn’t provide anything overwhelmingly bearish.
“If anything, it looks like we got the estimates close to right. World corn stocks went up a lot, but that appears to be mostly accumulation all over the world and no single factor,” Scoville says.
He adds, “The US Corn ending stocks are less than predicted and the soybeans and wheat pretty close to predictions.  I think they sold the market and we might come back later in the day, I guess.  I do not want to press it lower based on these numbers, maybe for weather or the export sales report or something, but not these numbers.”

 

--Matt Pierce, Futures International floor trader, says, "The world corn stocks are most bearish. Domestic beans ticks came in lower but on expectations."

U.S. corn stocks are smaller than the average guess. But, I still do not see this as bullish."

Trader says no violent action, he says. Soybeans are under some pressure, corn is unchanged, following the report.

 

What do you think?

 

Mike

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USDA/WASDE April Supply & Demand Reports will be released at 11:00am CT.

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At the open:

At the open, the May corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.77 per bushel. The Dec corn futures are trading 2 1/2 cents lower at $4.02 per bushel.
May soybean futures are trading 7 3/4 cents lower at $9.63 3/4. Nov. soybean futures are trading 6 3/4 cents lower at $9.53. 

May wheat futures are trading 7 1/4 cents lower at $5.19.

In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.34 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 29 points higher.

Mike

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Correction: Soybean sales were not 679,100 mt, as reported earlier. There were cancellations totalling 176,700 for the 2014/15 marketing year.

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Thursday shows the figures mostly beat the trade's expectations:

 

Wheat= 354,700 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 100,000-450,000 metric tons.

Corn= 702,500 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 350,000-650,000 mt.

Soybeans= 502,400 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of  50,000-450,000 mt.

Soybean meal =77,000 mt vs. the trade's expectations of 50,000-400,000 metric tons.

 

Mike

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At 7:30am:

--Russia's 2015 corn acreage seen at a record high, up 2.8% from a year ago.

--Russia's Grain ending stocks seen at a record 15.5 mmt.

--China's corn stocks have hit a record 80 mt.

 

Oh boy, the corn market really has something to chew on. It doesn't look friendly. What do you think?

 

Mike

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At 6:30am:

 

Early calls: Corn 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 4-5 cents lower, and wheat 2-4 cents lower.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading lower.
Brent Crude Oil = $1.63 higher.
Dollar =Higher. 
Wall Street = Seen lower, with the market digesting the Fed meeting minutes, along with more earnings reports eyed.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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35 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

Yesterday,  Sue Martin stated that historically 60% and 63% of the time this  report is bearish for corn and soybeans, respectively.   But on the other side, she noted that the price is much higher weeks after this report. Just FYI.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

awesome

 

just what we need

 

another government report loaded with all kinds of made up data

 

yep, I said it

 

these reports are nothing more than a contest to see who can come up with the biggest lie

 

like I said earlier, when YOU can tell ME how many bushels I have in my tin cans, then we have something to talk about

 

otherwise these reports and these number are nothing more than BOLD FACE LIES

Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

Well at least they traded lower for six days leading up to it morons I say greedy outright crooks might as well be politicians
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Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

This report is nothing but a bloody sequel as "McGrain" size corn inventory lowers animal consumption...

 

report conclusion

 

burning of bull hooves continue, ja..

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

illinifarmer,

 

Why are they crooks?  They are just trading the trend.  You could do that too if you wanted to take some of the risk.

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

GIO,

 

do you farm?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

Mizzou,

 

No, do I have to?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk April 9 (Report Day)

Really unusual around here....

 

Local elevator has been staying full and only taking corn a few days a week..farmers keeping them full.

 

Gavilon has been full a few times lately with beans.

 

Still ground changing renters here in the last few weeks as some can't clear cash rent checks..

 

The closest to me is sixty one years old. Been in this area since '79 cutting a wide swath, running out of time to find the rabbit in the bottom of that hat.

 

So far we are in good shape moisture wise. This week we are @ 2 tenths total. Not all tile lines are running.

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