Floor Talk August 1

[marketeye]

At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 4 3/4 cents lower at $3.62.

Nov. soybean futures finished 23 1/4 cents lower at $10.58.

Sep. wheat futures settled 4 cents higher at $5.34.

Dec. soymeal futures finished $6.40 per short  ton lower at $342.40. The Dec. soyoil futures closed $0.69 lower at $35.71.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.44 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points lower.

Alan Brugler, Brugler Marketing & Management LLC, says the weather pressured farm markets Friday.
"Forecasts over the next 5 to 7 days for the Midwest have increased chances for moisture which may be helping to pressure the market ahead of the weekend," Brugler says.  Yesterday, the market could not build a rally on solid new crop export sales this week and is leaking lower again today."
The US Dollar index is lower on the day, after rallying throughout July, Brugler says.  
"The traders are watching the forecast and the USDA is in the process of collecting data and yield estimates from farmers for the August WASDE report."

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 cents lower at $3.64.

Nov. soybean futures are trading 22 1/4 cents lower at $10.59.

Sep. wheat futures are 6 cents higher at $5.36.

Dec. soymeal futures are $6.50 lower at $342.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.87 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 100 points lower.

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 3/4 cents lower at $3.64.

Nov. soybean futures are trading 16 cents lower at $10.66.

Sep. wheat futures are 7 1/2 cents higher at $5.37.

Dec. soymeal futures are $5.20 lower at $343.60.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.43 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 15 points lower.

Mike

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At 6:35am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower, soybeans 9-10 cents lower, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.43 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen lower, as global markets get carved up.

World Markets=Europe stocks were mostly lower, Asia/Pacific stocks were lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[highyields]

With Argentina's default what does this mean for agriculture??  

[marketeye]

I have requested a perspective from sources in Argentina. Let's see what they say.

Good question.

Mike

[Blacksandfarmer]

Mike, Ive done some traveling recently from Battle Creek, MI to Indianapolis IN. The corn, minus a few drown out spots in Michigan and a dry pocket in Northern Indiana looks great. The soybeans are a different story. I havent seen many really good soybean fields this year. Without ideal weather this month, soybeans in this region will struggle to make record production. It will be interesting to see what the crop looks like on the way to Farm Progress later this month.

[luisvieira]

What I can say from the Brazilian side is that here there a big worries about lower demand for the Brazilian industry. Brazil is a big supplier of cars, buses, trucks, and agricultural machinery to Argentina. Now, as Argentina was dowgraded by S&P and has even less access to international credit, imports in there will have to be paid mostly "with cash".

Argentina exports to Brazil some food products such as rice, wheat, and milk-based good. If they can't make exports viable, that could bring a higehr inflation of these products in Brazil. In Uruguay, the preoccupations is that the tourism industry "woud die" with the currenty devaluation in Argentina and less income power of Argentinians.

Mainstream economists in Argentina say this is not apocalyptical. They affirm that this will only worsen "to some extent" the current problems of the country. Significant changes were not really seen in the value of the dollar there after the default. However, I think it will be a dire situation if this default is consolidated, though I'm not an expert.

You guys that so many times we talked about those retentions on grain exports, a tax policy implemented since 2003 - two years after another default. Grains, beef, milk, and wine are almost their only source of Argentine international reserves, but in that period that money was not mosly used to pay foreign debt, but on subsidies and welfare programs. The only thing I can say as of now that Argentina farmers will have even less access to credit and a tough grain season is coming.