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08-10-2017 09:02 AM - edited 08-10-2017 02:11 PM
In its August Supply/Demand Report Thursday, the USDA pegged the 2017 U.S. corn yield at 169.5 bushels per acre, vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 170.7 and the average trade estimate of 166.2 bu./acre.
For soybeans, the USDA’s U.S. yield is estimated at 49.4 bu./acre, vs. the trendline forecast of 48.0 and the average trade estimate of 47.5 bu./acre.
As a result, the CME Group futures markets have dropped, with soybeans down 20¢ and corn down 10¢, after the report.
The U.S. 2017 corn production estimate is 14.15 billion bushels vs. the previous USDA estimate of 14.25 bu./acre and the average trade estimate of 13.85 billion bushels.
For soybeans, the USDA pegged the 2017 production at 4.38 billion bushels vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 4.26 billion and the average trade estimate of 4.212 billion.
U.S. Ending Stocks
In its report, the USDA pegged the U.S. 2016-17 corn ending stocks at 2.37 billion bushels vs. the USDA July estimate of 2.37 billion bushels and the average estimate of 2.386 billion.
For 2017-18, the U.S. corn ending stocks is estimated at 2.27 billion bushels, compared with its July estimate of 2.32 billion bushels and the average trade estimate of 2.00 billion.
The USDA pegged old-crop soybean ending stocks at 370 million bushels, vs. the USDA’s July estimate of 410 million bushels and the average trade estimate of 401 million.
For 2017-18 soybean ending stocks, the USDA sees U.S. stocks at 475 million bushels vs. the July estimate of 460 million and the average trade estimate of 424 million bushels.
--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading founder, says that the end-users seem to have caught a break with this report, with official estimates of higher per acre yields for both corn and soybeans than had been expected.
“New record-high global inventories for wheat are also a bit of a surprise but are more than welcome given the drought in the Dakotas and near record world demand,” Gilbertie says.
He adds, “Also, corn supplies are falling faster than use in the U.S., which says that even though farmers are projected to harvest the second largest U.S. corn crop in history, we will still draw down our ending stocks due to steady and high demand for corn.”
--Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says that the report’s yields are very high and imply much better crops than what I saw last weekend in central Illinois.
“These estimates are way too high and a borderline bad joke. But, we will see. Central Illinois has a lot of soybeans fields, but bean plants are small this year. Corn and beans very uneven.”
--Brian A. Rydlund, CHS Hedging’s Market Analyst, says that the USDA’s soybean yield shocker was huge.
“No one saw that coming. Since August 1, my guess is that the crop has gotten bigger in most areas based on weather,” Rydlund says. The trade went into this report thinking it was going to be a friendly report and got a surprise.”
Redlined adds, “With these yields, row crop carry outs grow US corn carryout for 2017/18 remains over 2 bill bushels. And that doesn’t equate to a $4 futures market.”
For soybeans, the US 17/18 soy carryout goes to 475 mil bushels. "That is not a $10 futures market," Rydlund says.
At the close:
At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 15¢ lower at $3.57 1/4, while December futures closed 15 1/4¢ lower at $3.71. Sep. soybean futures closed 32¢ lower at $9.34, November soybean futures settled 33¢ lower at $9.40 1/4. September wheat futures finished 19¢ lower at $4.40. Dec. soy meal futures ended $12.70 per short ton lower at $300.20. Dec. soy oil futures settled at $0.37 lower at 34.16¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.97 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 124 points lower.
At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 7¢ lower at $3.65, while December futures are 7 3/4¢ lower at $3.78. Sep. soybean futures are 17 1/2¢ lower at $9.48, November soybean futures are 17 3/4¢ lower at $9.55. September wheat futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $4.50. Dec. soy meal futures are $9.10 per short ton lower at $303.80. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.20 lower at 34.33¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.36 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 138 points lower.
If you missed it, the USDA Weekly Export Sales Report stronger wheat sales, with corn and soybeans within trade expectations.
Wheat = 464,300 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 200,000 to 400,000 mt.
Corn= 680,400 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 400,000 to 800,000 mt.
Soybeans = 684,300 mt. the trade’s expectations of between 350,000 to 950,000 mt.
Soybean meal = 142,500 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 50,000 to 200,000 mt.
At the open:
At the open, the Sept. corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.72, while December futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.86. Sep. soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ higher at $9.72, November soybean futures are 6¢ higher at $9.79. September wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ lower at $4.58. Dec. soy meal futures are $1.00 per short ton higher at $313.90. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.37 higher at 34.22¢ per pound. In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.29 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 82 points lower.
08-10-2017 11:42 AM
Little info in the report about wheat....export sales
Well above expected....yet we drop ?
And with a straight face you can tell me nothing
08-10-2017 01:24 PM
To take it ?
Soon it will be time to plant and we see a rally.
I suppose "they" will say too much wheat the
Way it is..so push the price down.
You know all of this is starting to make me sick.
The market is telling us we dont need more grain,
And pushed it below price of production.....yet the
Max day use supplies (and I think I read it right)
Was 50 days wheat and the rest lower....that is not much.
08-10-2017 04:08 PM
Not sure why the USDA reports are treated as gospel by the traders and end users. But then again, they are never wrong......they'll just change the numbers in the next report if they are. They are just doing their job in keeping food at a low cost (CHEAP) for the American people. The markets are going to stay stagnant or go lower into the end of September and then will start to rise as the harvest insurance price discovery month starts in October. The one good thing is that with the prices staying down through August, the ARC payments should be pretty good for some folks.