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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 10

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 17 1/2 cents higher at $3.90 1/4, Dec corn futures finished 17 1/4 cents higher at  $4.01. 

Sept. soybean futures closed 32 3/4 cents higher at $10.08 1/4. Nov. soybean futures ended 31 1/4 cents higher at $9.94 1/2.

Sept. wheat futures closed 15 cents higher at $5.25 1/2.

Sept. soymeal futures closed $9.30 per short ton higher at $353.60. Aug. soyoil futures closed $0.36 higher at $30.49. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $1.61 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 239 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 14 3/4 cents higher at $3.87 1/2, Dec corn futures are 14 1/4 cents higher at  $3.98. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 22 cents higher at $9.97. Nov. soybean futures are trading 21 1/2 cents higher at $9.84.

Sept. wheat futures are 15 cents higher at $5.25.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $7.60 per short ton higher at $351.90. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.40 higher at $30.53. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.81 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 214 points higher.

A favorite floor source of mine is weighing in, today, regarding the rally. In his own words:

"This is fear of the report. Also, a lack of sellers. EU markets, specifically, the Paris Maize market was up 20 cents on Thursday and Friday. The eastern Corn Belt needs more rains, and we are fearful of losing both planted and harvested acres. I have guys who still believe we can be sub-160 for a national yield. There are a few private tours, last week, that exclaimed they did not think NW Iowa was as good as it should be, if you are going to offset problems in the eastern Corn Belt.
Frankly, I screwed this one up. I have thought corn had gotten too cheap. Prices were low enough to imply trend plus yields which very few believe we have. But, I am sitting here with nothing on.
Meanwhile, the ECB needs more rain to keep wet footed crops looking good. And, we are expecting 90 degrees mid-week, across the belt. That doesn't help."

 

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group Senior Market Analyst, says that the rally is supported by spec buying.
“We are trying to create a drought situation in eastern Corn Belt areas.  There has been some rain, though. So, I am not sure how valid all of this is.  But specs are buying everything. I guess Barons quoted some guru as saying that commodities are undervalued right now.  That is creating some buying too, I guess,” Scoville says. 
The market really seems to fear a lower production number, he says. “But, I tend to think this could be the last time up, for a while, as I think there is a crop out there.  I am trying to get my farmers to buy puts and some of them are,. So, I feel better on my ideas that the production is out there.  Corn got planted on time and seems to have handled the weather.  Beans might be different, but it got planted late, so we might not know with this week’s report,” Scoville says.

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Sept. corn futures are trading 5 cents higher at $3.78, Dec corn futures are 5 cents higher at  $3.89. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 11 cents higher at $9.86. Nov. soybean futures are trading 12 cents higher at $9.75.

Sept. wheat futures are 1 cent higher at $5.11.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $6.60 per short ton higher at $351.00. Aug. soyoil futures are trading $0.03 higher at $30.16. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.54 higher per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 119 points higher.

Mike

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At 8:25am:

If you missed it, the CFTC report Friday showed the specs less long than expected in corn (150,000 vs 221,000). Meanwhile, funds are slightly short wheat, and maintain a slight net long in soybeans.

 

 

Mike

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At 7:50am:

 

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 7-8 cents higher, and wheat 1-2 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Brent Crude Oil = $0.39 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, as Greek banks get a bailout infusion.

World Markets = Europe stocks were mostly higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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10 Replies
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

Well, there has to be some postive grain market news out there somewhere.   Anyone have any?

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

roarintiger1,

 

Just thinking out loud here. But, I wonder if this is 'buy the rumor, sell the fact" rallying? With lower yield and acreage estimates expected Wednesday. Maybe, folks are buying ahead of the report?

 

Mike

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

Thanks Mike!

 

I was thinking that myself.

 

But I am wondering who has been talking about lower yields and lower acreage?  It seems like many market advisors are staying with the staus quo....Still encouraging forward sales, claiming the huge carryovers are going to lower prices further and still thinking that Brazil will be raising yet another record crop, while taking most of the export business away from the U.S.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

Roarintiger1,

 

Also, the Crop Condition Report, today, is expected to show a 1% drop in corn and soybean ratings.

 

Mike

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

So ole jacko thinks this is the last leg up and there's a big crop coming

I hope he has some stops

Tell ole jacko he ain't seen nothing yet
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

MT, Here's his sign.....er....ah.....song.

 

 

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7miRCLeFSJo

 

Highlighted
Frequent Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

This Jack Scoville dude should consider going into comedy.
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

My favorite quote from the Jack entry ...................... " Corn got planted on time and seems to have handled the weather."

 

Ok now let open up the bidding...... Can you guess from what year Jack is remembering??

 

usa-agriculture-map1.jpg

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 10

My favorite "Jack" quote:

 

 I guess Barons quoted some guru as saying that commodities are undervalued right now.  That is creating some buying too, I guess,” Scoville says. 

 

OK Mike - put your journalist's hat on and do some digging to find out who this "guru" is!!

We need to hear more from that guy/gal.