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Advisor
Posts: 3,977
Registered: ‎05-03-2010
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Floor Talk August 11

[ Edited ]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures finished 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.60, while December futures closed 3 3/4¢ higher at $3.74 3/4. Sep. soybean futures finished 4 1/4¢ higher at $9.38 1/4, November soybean futures closed 4 3/4¢ higher at $9.45. September wheat futures closed 1 1/4¢ lower at $4.39 1/4. Dec. soy meal futures closed $4.00 per short ton higher at $304.20. Dec. soy oil futures finished $0.17 lower at 33.99¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.16 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points higher.

 

Dustin Johnson, AgYield Senior Strategist, says the markets keep searching for news to trade.
“The small rebounds are attributed to weaker US Dollar and bargain hunting after yesterday's large selloff,” Johnson says.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ higher at $3.59, while December futures are 2¢ higher at $3.73. Sep. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $9.34, November soybean futures are 2¢ higher at $9.42. September wheat futures are 5¢ lower at $4.35. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.20 per short ton higher at $302.40. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.12 lower at 34.04¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.28 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 47 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 10:55am:

If you missed it, the USDA announced some bargain hunting sales Friday.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 120,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China. Of the total 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2016/2017 marketing year and 60,000 metric tons is for delivery during the 2017/2018 marketing year
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1

 

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Sept. corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.57, while December futures are 1¢ higher at $3.72. Sep. soybean futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $9.37, November soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ higher at $9.44. September wheat futures are 1¢ lower at $4.39. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.30 per short ton higher at $302.30. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.15 higher at 34.31¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.31 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 7:20am:

 

In the overnight markets, the December corn futures contract traded 3/4¢ higher at $3.71 per bushel. The November soybean futures are 1 1/2 cents higher at $9.41. The September wheat futures 1 cent lower at $4.39.

 

Are you still reeling from yesterday's USDA Supply/Demand Report?

 

Mike

Advisor
Posts: 1,376
Registered: ‎08-04-2010

Re: Floor Talk August 11

U.S corn ratings are down a bunch from last year and they still predict a 169 bu. nat average? Why waste time and money putting out corn ratings if you're just going to plug in near record yields anyway?

Honored Advisor
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Registered: ‎05-13-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

I`m a little embarrassed to admit, but they didn`t count ears & kernels in this report? And it`s certainly too early for bean pod counts.  If the report is basically FSA office workers driving around giving their assessment on "how green things look" that might be accurate on a "normal year" but I think the husks are going to have to be peeled back to have a accurate report and the fact we have green on the screen this morning tells some traders believe that.

 

I`m very interested in what the Poor Farmer crop tour will find this year.

Veteran Contributor
Posts: 146
Registered: ‎05-14-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

IMO The USDA is a market manipulator not a yield predictor. Private firms are much more sophisticated and accurate. The traders (gamblers) have to trade(gamble) on something, and the USDA is the best poker dealer in the world.

Advisor
Posts: 1,376
Registered: ‎08-04-2010

Re: Floor Talk August 11

Mike, the real problem with this crop will be very simple - kernels around. I'm in a garden spot this year and I'm a little disappointed in the number of kernel rows on my ears. We have had timely rains in July and August, but June was very dry. Corn determines ear size very early in its life. My average number of kernel rows is between 14 and 16 around. That means early season stress hurt these corn plants' yield potential. These ears come from my corn show plot, but they are representative of most of my corn. The ears are from a 96 day hybrid on the right, all the way up to a 109 day hybrid on the left planted at 30,000 population. Yield estimates are between 152 bu. and 190 bu. with the 109 day hybrid at the top estimate. The bottom picture is the 96 day hybrid with only 12 rows of kernels around. To look at the ears on the plant without pulling the husk back, one would think this plot goes 180 to 200. I'm thankful and not complaining, but for our farm in  Michigan to make up for yield reductions in Ohio and Indiana, I just don't think it's there.

 

Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 3.34.46 PM.png

 

Screen Shot 2017-08-11 at 3.38.38 PM.png

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Honored Advisor
Posts: 7,659
Registered: ‎07-18-2011
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

BSF good presentation ........ we are seeing similar and some tipping back in length.

 

On our end it is the late planting coupled with intense heat in June & July.  August has finally broken the heat but it is pretty late to stop damage made.  dry land acres were struggling to have an ear and it is too late.

Finally hit the rain prediction jackpot .......after weeks of predictions....... the last 36 hours three rains and a total somewhere around 6 inches of hard rain...  

Hail took out well over 300 acres each of corn and beans last evening... 300 each for us and much more for neighbors ----- 1.5 miles wide and 6 mile long area.

 

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Veteran Advisor
Posts: 2,994
Registered: ‎02-11-2013
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

oh $%#@ !!!

Veteran Advisor
Posts: 1,238
Registered: ‎06-30-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

[ Edited ]

Dang, sorry to hear about that hail SW.   Good hail insurance?

Senior Contributor
Posts: 246
Registered: ‎01-20-2012
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

Sorry to hear about the hail SW

Advisor
Posts: 1,376
Registered: ‎08-04-2010
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Re: Floor Talk August 11

Sorry about the hail SW, its got to be tough farming on the fringe.