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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures finished 25¢ lower (the daily limit low) at $3.85 1/4. Dec. corn futures ended 25¢ lower at $3.92 3/4. As a result, the corn market will have a 45¢ daily trading limit, Tuesday.

Sep. soybean futures settled 12 1/4¢ lower at $8.66 3/4. November soybean futures finished 12 1/2¢ lower at $8.79 1/4.

Sep. wheat futures ended 27 3/4¢ lower at $4.71 3/4.



December soymeal futures settled $5.10 per short ton lower at $293.40.

 December soy oil futures closed $0.10 higher at 30.05¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 370 points lower.

 

Mike

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At 11:17am:

 

Farm Service Agency Released U.S. Acreage

 

Corn= 85.8 million

Soybeans= 74.0 million

Keep in mind that FSA and NASS acreage methodology is different. So, what the USDA releases in the Crop Production may be different than these FSA numbers.

Here are also new numbers from FSA:

U.S. Prevent Planted Acreage

Corn=11.2 million, as of August 1.

Soybeans= 4.35 million, as of Aug. 1

Wheat = 2.209 million, as of Aug. 1

Mike

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At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 25¢ lower (the daily limit low) at $3.85 1/4. Dec. corn futures are 25¢ lower at $3.92 3/4.

Sep. soybean futures are 6 1/4¢ lower at $8.72 3/4. November soybean futures are 6 1/2¢ lower at $8.85 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 19 3/4¢ lower at $4.79.



December soymeal futures are $2.80 per short ton lower at $300.90.

 December soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 30.03¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.35 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 222 points lower.

Mike

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USDA/WASDE Report Results

U.S. Production

Corn= 90.0  million acres

Soybeans=  76.0  million acres

Wheat=  45.0 million

Yields

Corn=  169.5  bu./acre

Soybeans= 48.5  bu./acre

Production

Corn= 13.9 billion bushels

Soybeans= 3.68 billion bushels

 

Corn falls 25¢, its daily limit.

 

TRADE RESPONSE

--Sal Gilbertie, Teucrium Trading, says this was a surprisingly bearish report on the surface, but the fact that the official numbers deviate so much from expectations, weekly crop progress reports, and the prevent plant acreage indications leaves traders confused and doubting the long-term validity of today’s numbers. Clearly prices will be volatile for the remainder of the harvest season as future WASDE reports begin to more accurately reflect the reality of the coming harvest.

--Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group, says that the USDA report is negative for corn, for sure.
“USDA increased corn yields and threw the market limit down. USDA also cut corn demand for a significant increase in ending stocks. That made for bearish world data as well. The crop is so late that yields will be subject to much further revision and should be taken with a big grain of salt.

Scoville added, “During a visit to Bloomington, IL, on Saturday, I witnessed a crop that had just silked and was in blister stage. If it makes it home, there is a good crop there. But, a disaster is possible too and USDA and everyone else has no clue. Today, the USDA left the soybean yield alone, with a big crop in bean acreage area. I think the bean area might be bigger, there were plenty of beans seen over the weekend but the area data should be good I think not the yield,” Scoville says.

--Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities, says the USDA data has been received as disappointing.
“The much anticipated USDA August WASDE crop report turned into disappointment very quickly. All corn numbers were increased from the July report from yields to the world ending stocks. The 3.5 yield increase and sharp increase in 2019-2020 ending stocks sent corn sharply lower to daily trading limit levels lower,” Roose says.

--Matt Tranel, Cash Advisor for Commodity Risk Management Group, says that the USDA numbers on corn, in particular, were the ones that have many scratching their heads.
“The average trade estimate for harvested acres was 80.05 million with the bottom end estimate near 76 million and top end at 81.9 million. The USDA had harvested acres printed at 82 million. Quite bearish right there in it's own right. The zinger on top of acres came in the form of the yield number released. Many had thought yield may be close to unchanged today and revised later on in the year. But, yield ended up being released at 169.5, up 3.5 bushels/acre from the July report. Coupled together and accounting for other supply and demand factors, ending stocks stand at 2.181 billion,” Tranel says.

Tranel added, “This report likely places a wet blanket over the market for quite a while and limits top end opportunities. We'll have to see how this crop finishes and the next couple months of reports but harvest just might be the next opportunity for a rally, that's if the acres and yield isn't as high as what the USDA is currently forecasting.”

 

What say you?

Thanks,

 

Mike

------------------------

At 8:53am:

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $4.05. Dec. corn futures are 5 1/4¢ lower at $4.12.

Sep. soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $8.72. November soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $8.84 3/4.

Sep. wheat futures are 4 1/2¢ lower at $4.95.



December soymeal futures are $3.00 per short ton lower at $300.70.

 December soy oil futures are $0.08 lower at 29.87¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.29 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 145 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors will be watching closely today’s USDA data dump.

“Today’s USDA corn and soybean yield estimates will be the highest of the year. The August yield survey and satellite imagery was taken right around August 1, it has stayed dry for the last 12 days in the central Corn Belt, and crop conditions have moved lower. The USDA crop production report (to be released 11:00 CST Monday August 12),” Kluis told customers in a daily note.


Kluis added, “We are watching two sets of numbers. First, what size are the 2019 corn and soybean crops now? Second, what will the USDA say about acres in the 11 AM reports? The USDA production estimates are likely to be higher than the current private trade estimates. However, projections are likely to move lower in future reports--especially if the dry weather pattern continues in the central Corn Belt.”

 

Mike

 

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23 Replies
Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

Maybe it was known in advance but not to me.

Wish I'd known that the FSA # wasn't coming out simultaneously so I could've bought.

Probably somebody did.

Won't happen when the USDA moves the apparatus to KC and has a mostly new staff? (that's a joke).

Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

Another complete BS report

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

To make a long story short big crops get bigger.

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Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

We all knew acres were exaggerated by at least 10 mill as well as yield production estimates being far to high for a crop that’s more than a month behind.  Both were expected and estimated to drop substantially.  What do we get a correction that allows these ***** to continue lining their pockets while robbing the poor.  How you all sleep at night is beyond me. This entire marketing year has been a joke and obviously is going to continue right into harvest.  Just long enough before everyone says where’s all the grain?, then they’ll roll right into next year planting to cover their ***** on losses how pathetic.  

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Highlighted
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

For many farmers its now over 

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Advisor

You can

Even bet on it IF you think the USDA numbers are viable or not.  LOL. 

I say an 11.8 to 12.5 billion bu. Corn crop total. 

I say Maybe a 2.6 billion bu. Total bean crop.  And most likely Less than 2.6 billion. There's simply not many normal growth or Good beans this year Anywhere. 

 

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)


@illinifarmer wrote:

We all knew acres were exaggerated by at least 10 mill as well as yield production estimates being far to high for a crop that’s more than a month behind.  Both were expected and estimated to drop substantially.  What do we get a correction that allows these ***** to continue lining their pockets while robbing the poor.  How you all sleep at night is beyond me. This entire marketing year has been a joke and obviously is going to continue right into harvest.  Just long enough before everyone says where’s all the grain?, then they’ll roll right into next year planting to cover their ***** on losses how pathetic.  

 

No doubt this Totally Consolidated Market Game Sucks for grain producers. 

Sure is making some Cheap grain for users now. 


 

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Veteran Contributor

Re: When does farm ground start dropping in price?

When does farm ground start dropping in price? If everyone is throwing in the towel and it isn't worth it any longer then cash rents and land values should be dropping. They appear to be doing the opposite.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: When does farm ground start dropping in price?

When  they  start  making  more  of  it  -  -  -

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