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Veteran Contributor

Re: When does farm ground start dropping in price?

Sounds like its worth keeping and farming then Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

Just shaking my head.  

And, again, USDA has done studies that show their reports do not adversely impact the market.

Might take until January to recover from this one.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

Keep in mind land prices are still elevated because there is nowhere else to invest money, open up a massage parlor, lots of empty buildings in every town..... Taxes are excessive....if it sells........and excessive if you keep it.  Any run up in grain prices will be grabbed by input suppliers and the technology plague.  And taxes will go up ---- they have to and will grab their share.

There is a dilemma coming if not already here........ There is crp ground coming out of the program that few want to break out but grazing won't pay the property taxes.  If you have farm land that a developer wants to own......better consider how lucky you are.  The poorer ground is already facing bad decisions.

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

SW  -  tech  comment,     priceless   -   -   -

  

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Advisor

Farmers

Will learn to be less intensive w crop inputs. 

This less yield results in much higher crop price guarantee from federal crop  insurance. 

This farming the numbers stuff is not rocket science. 

There is some decent dough made farming the govt. 

 

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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

If report is correct, lower prices cause demand to go up putting a floor on prices. If it’s over estimated, demand goes up, ultimately prices go up when yield is known, be patient. Last thing needed is the report to be under estimated, the demand goes down and we end up with a big crop nobody wants!

 If your glass is half full, pour the cocktail into a smaller glass!!

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk, August 12, 2019 (USDA Report Day)

Tree  -   Smaller  Glass,   another  priceless  deal ,  although  my  card  credit  has  expired  -   -   -  

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Highlighted
Honored Advisor

Re: Farmers

Wright,   it is very temporary...... crop insurance shrinks to sawdust when you start filing claims.... as it is designed to..... it is only the illusion of insurance.  We really need some serious drops in production and some real shortages in population centers.  This year is just a start to changing anything...... and higher prices for commodities is not a solution....  Agriculture on all sides is facing a real enemy ...... not just a perceived one....... were in a battle over what is important in american lives and food is loosing to the lies.  We hardly know how to define food and its origins.

Agriculture has been taken over by corporate profiteering...  Technology, inputs, and marketing are totally out of control... The present "futures" markets are without regulation and live based on propaganda and rumor.----- fear of political pooping.  No one doubts there will be beef in the stores tomorrow......but there is a good reason to worry today.

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Farmers

SW  -  save  me  some  '''  milo  seed ''' ,  and  hopefully  you  have  a  steep  early  pay  discount,   also  some  seed  plates  for  a  7200  -   -   -

Also   where  is  the , beyond ,   check  off  -  office  located  -  ? 

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Advisor

Re: This report doesn't make sense.

March corn acres was 91.7 m, today the USDA says corn planted acre is 85.8 M or (-) 5.9 M.

 Meanwhile, the FSA says 11.2 M corn PP acres.

 Well, 91.7 minus 11.2 is 80.5.  Knock 7 M acres off for silage and you're looking at  looking at 74 M acres for grain.  Even if you accept USDA's 85.8 and adjust for silage it's still only 79 M for corn.

Now for yield, trend is 172 bpa, sizable acres of late planted corn will trim the yield more than 2.5 bpa. USDA sure has more faith in the corn crop than I do.