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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 13

At the close:

 

The Dec. corn futures settled 3/4 of a cent higher at $3.69.

 

Nov. soybean futures ended 12 3/4 cents lower at $10.46.

Sep. wheat futures finished 10 cents lower at $5.28.

 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.40 lower at $342.10. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.66 lower at $34.32.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.28 per barrel higher, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 83 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

 

At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 cent lower at $3.68.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 1/2 cents lower at $10.51.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 3/4 cents lower at $5.34.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $0.40 lower at $343.10. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.50 lower at $34.48.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.32 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 81 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 11am:

According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 931,000 barrels per day (b/d)—or 39.10 million gallons daily. That is up 29,000 b/d from the week before. The four-week average for ethanol production stood at 937,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 14.36 billion gallons. Since the beginning of June, the annualized run rate has averaged 14.45 billion gallons, according to the Renewable Fuels Association press release Wednesday.

Stocks of ethanol stood at 17.8 million barrels. That is a sizable 2.7% decrease from last week. and the lowest in 11 weeks. Stocks dropped back to the implied 20-day supply level for the first time since the week ending 5/23/2014.

 

Mike

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At 10am:

The markets have turned lower.

 

At 10am:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3 1/4 cents lower at $3.65.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 3/4 cents lower at $10.50.

Sep. wheat futures are 3 1/4 cents lower at $5.34.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.00 lower at $342.50. Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.46 lower at $34.52.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.11 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 43 points higher.

 

Mike

---------

At the open:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 1 1/4 cents higher at $3.70.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 1/2 of a cent higher at $10.60.

Sep. wheat futures are 4 cents higher at $5.42.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $1.00 higher at $344.40. Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.32 lower at $35.55.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $0.09 per barrel lower, the dollar is lower and the Dow Jones Industrials are 61 points higher.

 

Mike

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At 8:05am:

On Wednesday, private exporters reported to the USDA the following activity:

  • Export sales of 107,600 metric tons of corn to Mexico during the 2014/2015 marketing year; and
  • Export sales of 130,000 metric tons of corn to unknown destinations during the 2014/2015 marketing year.

Mike

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At 7:35am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents higher, soybeans 2-4 cents higher, and wheat 4-6 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.

Brent Crude Oil=$0.13 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Lower.

Wall Street=Seen higher, with the market following global markets higher.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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16 Replies
Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Mike, any news as to when the EPA will finalize and release the new RFS? It seems as though they (the EPA) hinted at reducing the RFS, and it has been a weight on the corn market ever since. Last I heard the EPA may actually want to increase the blending of ethanol. What is the story there, and how may it change the corn market if any? Thanks.

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vandenplas
Senior Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Mike:  I need help.  Two days ago, when I tried to open the Forum Talk, I got a message saying attempt failed, and to "open a Lithium Support Case and provide date and time I received the error and this Exception ID 5E00526."   I still cannot open the Forum Talk, and the only way I got to you was going through an attachment in the News section.  Please see if you can help.  Thanks.

vandenplas

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Kstater85
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

If we run all the ethanol plants all the time we will use 5.2B bushels of corn next year.   The goverment is using 5.075 in balance sheet already.   I think we should just agree that they will run full out.   No matter the RFS or exports you cant go over 5.2. 

The days of ethanol mattering to corn price are over.

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Blacksandfarmer
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Kstater85 I didnt ask you!

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Kstater85
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Fair enough.

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glenlivet18
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Yeah Kst8 why don't you shut up!  Smiley Wink

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Blacksandfarmer,

 

I'm going to ask Dan Looker, my co-worker, to step in and provide his knowledgable perspective. Give me a minute, please.

 

Mike

 

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Vandenplas,

 

Jeff Caldwell will be contacting you.

 

Thanks,

 

Mike

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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 13

Blacksandfarmer,

 

Here's some commentary and reporting on when the EPA could decide on the new RFS.

 

One Senator thinks it will be after the election. That's just speculation, but it's possible. More speculation at the ACE conference (also not reported) is that if Bruce Braley needs help with his campaign for the U.S. Senate in Iowa and EPA's decision is a favorable reversal, it might be before the election. 

This story on the ACE meeting quotes an EPA official saying the review process by the Office of Management and Budget and other government agencies could take 30 to 90 days. Here's the link to the story.

http://www.agriculture.com/news/policy/epa-bracing-f-rfs-lawsuit_4-ar44603

Earlier this summer, Senator Al Franken (D-MN) said he thought the decision would be out soon. That  now appears not to be the case. Franken also thought the final decision will be more favorable for ethanol.

The bottom line: The new RFS could be better than the proposal EPA put out last November, but it will be a surprise if it is dramatically better. It's also almost guaranteed that someone (biofuels supports or the oil industry, or maybe both) will sue EPA. It's unsure how that lawsuit will affect blending of ethanol. The industry is already producing more than can be used in the United States and it's relying on exports.

 

I hope this helps,

 

Mike

 

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