Floor Talk August 13

[marketeye]

At the close:

At the close, the Sept. corn futures settled 6 1/2 cents higher at $3.63, Dec corn futures finished 7 1/4 cents higher at $3.75. 

Sept. soybean futures closed 17 3/4 cents higher at $9.36 1/4. Nov. soybean futures finished 17 cents higher at $9.27.

Sept. wheat futures ended 11 cents higher at $5.03 1/4.

Sept. soymeal futures finished $7.20 per short ton higher at $330.90. Sept. soyoil futures finished $0.11 lower at $28.99. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.63 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 38 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sept. corn futures are trading 4 1/2 cents higher at $3.61, Dec corn futures are 4 3/4 cents higher at  $3.72. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 8 cents higher at $9.26. Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 1/2 cents higher at $9.18.

Sept. wheat futures are 10 1/4 cents higher at $5.02.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $4.90 per short ton higher at $328.60. Sept. soyoil futures are trading $0.07 lower at $29.03. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.71 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 30 points higher.

Jack Scoville, The PRICE Futures Group, senior market analyst, says that the markets are having a rebound day from the big reaction to the reports yesterday. 
My farmers are quiet, but we got some sold before and now they wish they had sold more but that is life.  At least my guys got something on the books for the most part.”  Mostly short covering today, no real new buying, Scoville says. 
“Some rebound after the action yesterday was to be expected and I think it is just a short term thing.  The reports might not be universally believed on the yields, but USDA has history going for it as wet and cool summers often make for top yields in beans and corn.  The price action this week has turned very bearish and implies more downside coming soon. So, I look to use rallies to sell more.”

Mike

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At the open:

At the open, the Sept. corn futures are trading 2 cents higher at $3.59, Dec corn futures are 2 cents higher at  $3.70. 

Sept. soybean futures are trading 8 cents higher at $9.26. Nov. soybean futures are trading 8 cents higher at $9.18.

Sept. wheat futures are 1 cent higher at $4.93.

Sept. soymeal futures are trading $4.50 per short ton higher at $328.20. Sept. soyoil futures are trading $0.13 lower at $28.97. 

In the outside markets, the Brent Crude oil market is $0.35 lower per barrel, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points lower.

Mike

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At 7:45am:

USDA Released Weekly Export Sales Thursday.

Wheat= 422,200 metric tons vs. the trade's expectations of 300,000-725,000 metric tons.

Corn= 531,100 mt vs. the trade's expectations of between 250,000-850,000 mt.

Soybeans= 756,800 mt. vs. the trade's expectations of  550,000-1,250,000 mt.

Mike

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At 7:00am:

Early calls: Corn 3-5 cents higher, soybeans 10-12 cents higher, and wheat 3-5 cents higher.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets = Trading higher.
Crude Oil = $0.02 higher.
Dollar =Higher.  
Wall Street = Seen higher, with a lot of data eyed. China devalued its currency for a third day in a row. So far, the stock market has shrugged it off.

World Markets = Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were higher.

More in a minute,

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

I am sure you saw my thread

any chance you talk with Ray G. about my wager

or maybe he has seen it

[marketeye]

Mizzou_Tiger,

No, I haven't talked with him. By the way, yesterday's market reaction was the second largest, regarding the August report. And, Funds sold 30,000 corn contracts, 25,000 soybeans, and 10,000 wheat. And, it's believed they will sell more today.

Mike

[Mizzou_Tiger]

meanwhile hundreds of counties across several states are being declared disaster areas

as of 8/7 in MO alone there are 68 counties declared federal disaster areas.  i am lucky enough to farm in some of them

the disconnect from what is really going on out here and lala land is crazy

like i said, when its all said and done I hope the rip higher this market will eventually take destroys some traders

I am sick and tired of the "USDA" and the "funds" and the "traders" making a buck off the back of the american farmer

if you dont grow it, or directly consume it.  You shouldnt be allowed to trade it

the fact that basis levels are where they are locally tells me the disconnect is there

[BA Deere]

Well MT, we got farmers licking their chops to sue Syngenta because they allegedly harmed the corn market by a buck during 2013-14.  It seems to me that these USDA reports and funds and HFT doing their monkey business clobbers our markets to the tune of a buck multiple times every year. Perhaps the "ambulance chaser lawyers" should hold the aformentioned culprits accountable for their shenanigans as well?

Oh I know "the funds add liquidity to the markets" and we should be thankful for that.

[timetippingpt]

Misery Kitten...chill a little dude.

The past 10 weeks have been horrific for the commodity funds. Most have lost 5 to 10% of equity. The ones on the other side have been farmers and commercials. Farmers got to sell $4.30 old corn to those brilliant traders. You might want to be careful as you might get your wish. Funds/Specs/Swap Dealers are still long 350,000,000 bu of srw, 2 Bil bu of corn, and 770,000,000 bu of beans as of 8/3. Obviously less now, but you might want to think twice about forcing them out of the market. Most academics could prove to you that this investment has kept prices higher than they should have been for quite some time.

[rayjenkins]

MT.....you SHOULD have strong basis levels, even before this crash and burn selloff yesterday......with limited crop prospects, the space situation should be plentiful, and that leads to farmers holding remaining old crop supply out of the supply chain...

[roarintiger1]

It shouldn't be up to the basis alone to carry the weight.   The ones that trade the futures are very complacent when it comes to worldwide food.  The ONLY thing they are concerned with is whether or not they can make a buck.  The fundamental side of things seems to be thrown out the window.

[farmer46]

And here I thought Hillary was in the options again, building a little nest egg

[farmer46]

On the serious side,  I am long with crop in the field.  My marketing has adjusted to the time I will sell,  I believe late in Feb, after the true numbers come in. I believe the low price now is helpful for better prices later.