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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk, August 14, 2019

At midsession:

 

At midsession, the Sep. corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.61 3/4. Dec. corn futures are 3 3/4¢ lower at $3.72 3/4.

Sep. soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $8.69 1/2. November soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $8.81.

Sep. wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.73 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $3.60 per short ton lower at $301.00.

 December soy oil futures are $0.16 higher at 29.70¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.80 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 667 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:05am:

 

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.67. Dec. corn futures are 1 1/4¢ higher at $3.77 3/4.

Sep. soybean futures are 6 3/4¢ lower at $8.69 1/2. November soybean futures are 7¢ lower at $8.82.

Sep. wheat futures are 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.73 1/2.



December soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton lower at $302.20.

 December soy oil futures are $0.01 higher at 29.55¢ per pound.



In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.80 lower, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 421 points lower.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says that investors are now focused on weather.

“Traders will start to put more emphasis on the 30-day forecasts. That window will push through mid-September by the end of this week and should provide valuable insight regarding frost. The outside markets are slightly calmer today. There are reports that some products will not be impacted by the higher tariff. Is there still a chance that some agricultural products get put on that list? For now, we are forced to wait for that answer,” Kluis told customers in a daily note.


Kluis added, “The recent Crop Progress report showed that soybeans setting pods is at 54% this year. That is 22 percentage points below the five-year average. Those key spots across the Midwest that have not seen measurable rainfall for a few weeks are going to see a big shock to yield if moisture doesn’t arrive soon.”

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7 Replies
Advisor

The " little things "

Like beans setting pods at 22% behind their normal growing rate are most telling. 

The whole growing season,  due to several factors is simply 20 to 30% shorter this year. 

And in the meantime time paper corn Sept is back towards the mid 3s again. LoL. 

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Honored Advisor

Re: The " little things "

The traders for the most part, have ignored the growing season and conditions all year. They are not going to get all worked up over a frost scare. For that matter, they will probably think that will boost yields higher.

Honored Advisor

Re: The " little things "

This is not marketing ------ this is usda worship.

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Honored Advisor

Re: The " little things "

Wright  how do you see the plant in Garden city affecting the feedlot grain needs for the next six months?


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Veteran Contributor

RE: I'm sorry if ....

I'm sorry to harp on this again but if we could only have sold that 1000 million bushel of beans last fall things would look very different now.

  This spring, farmers planted more corn than they might otherwise have, due to the better prospects for corn than beans. It made sense at the time.  Now it looks like the price of both corn and beans will be in the cellar despite the worst spring weather on record. 

Not only that, but the global economic slowdown, the looming threat of global recession and all the ill will has cut into demand.

  It's going to take a long time to work through the damage caused by this trade war.

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Contributor

Re: RE: I'm sorry if ....

Things may not look quite so dire in 3 months- some individuals in the worst position excepted.

But whatever it is it could have been better.

Honored Advisor

Re: RE: I'm sorry if ....

Rick   Why don't you choose to blame the farmers who planted way too much corn..... of which there is no evidence.  Or any type of economic stimulus to ensure that kind of commitment.  Like usda does

Planting 100+ million acres of corn as usda claims we wanted to  is insane ,  rediculous and probably not possible  but has far more believeability than us ever having 1000 million bushels of soybeans to sell last fall.  Let alone not having a buyer who was interested it them ---If we had that many available to the market for export.....at any one time since harvest was over there is no evidence of it.  And the market has not shown it.

 

 

 

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