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Tony_Dreibus
Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk August 16

At the close:

 

At the close, the Sep. corn futures settled 1¢ higher at $3.27, Dec. futures closed 1/4¢ higher at $3.37 1/4 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures finished 4 1/4¢ lower at $10.19 1/2, while Nov. soybean futures ended 2¢ lower at $10.07. Sept. wheat futures finished 1 1/2¢ higher at $4.23 1/2. Sep. soymeal futures closed $2.70 short ton lower at $336.90. Sept. soyoil futures closed $0.17 higher at 33.38¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.69 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 69 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 1¢ higher at $3.27, Dec. futures are unchanged at $3.37 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 1/4¢ lower at $10.23, while Nov. soybean futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $10.12. Sept. wheat futures are 1/2¢ lower at $4.21. Sep. soymeal futures are $1.20 short ton lower at $338.40. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.18 higher at 33.39¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.60 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 48 points lower.

 

Jack Scoville,The PRICE Futures Group’s Senior Market Analyst, says without China’s 11th out of 12 trading days of buying U.S. soybeans, the markets would have little to trade.
“Pretty slow day, but more soybean business with China, good news.  Still a demand market in the beans and a supply market in the corn, as there is real doubt about the USDA production estimate for corn,” Scoville says.  
He added, “I know I am not really seeing it when I talk across the Midwest.  We got a good corn crop, but not a record yield.”
Overall, the market is holding well, so far, on a turnaround Tuesday, Scoville says.  
“I think we made a pre-harvest bottom and now we are trying to rally a bit.  This rally probably will be limited to another 10 cents or so in the corn, maybe another 25 cents in the beans, then we get harvest.  But the action is good, even with the light volume trade and I think the bulls should be encouraged by the price action so far.”

 

Mike

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At 9:10am:

If you missed it, China bought more soybeans from the U.S. Tuesday.

 

Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 119,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

At the open, the Sep. corn futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.26, Dec. futures are 1/2¢ lower at $3.36 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 3/4¢ lower at $10.23, while Nov. soybean futures are 3/4¢ higher at $10.10. Sept. wheat futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $4.17. Sep. soymeal futures are $0.70 short ton higher at $340.30. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.04 lower at 33.17¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.15 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points lower.

 

Mike

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It was a quiet overnight on the CBOT as crop conditions were unchanged week-over-week, as were subsoil moisture. Looking at the latter it seems if you're an I state, then you probably have enough subsoil moisture to get you through August even if it were to turn off hot and dry, which doesn't look likely. Moving east into Ohio and Michigan, though, and things are looking pretty dry. Still, some rain may be on the way, as part of this crazy system that's causing flooding from Texas to Ohio. 
 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.5% higher.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.5% higher.

Dollar = down 1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures slightly lower in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks lower as falling dollar drags down European equities. 

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2 Replies
jec22
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 16

At this point of the season, I would welcome warm and dry weather for the next 90 days. Plenty of moisture to finish this crop, rain just explodes the diseases.  Muddying out a crop is miserable work. Leaving drying expense off would help with these margins and if the crop is as big as they say, a lot less crop to handle at 15% than 22%. 

Haven't heard any discussion on the effect of cover crops on bean diseases...SDS, white mold, etc.  Any thoughts?

I am bullish beans and bearish corn prices.  So best to market the opposite of my marketing non-expertise. 

 

Interesting chart...we are no were near the 80's on carryout vs. usage in corn - so hopefully don't hit sub 2 corn.  But, we did go below 2 in 2005 with similar carryouts. That would be super ugly for many in the ag economy.  Long term it will lead to over expansion in livestock sector as well.  The more things change, the more they stay the same. Big exception is crop revenue insurance we have today compared to 2005. 

 

http://www.mywhitecommercial.com/bbspics/sd_cornbeans.pdf

 

Life is still good,

 

SC IA

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rayjenkins
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 16

thanks for posting that link.....

 

before getting ready for a farm sale, consider that usage is projected to be right at 30% higher than 05/06, and much of that falls into the category I call "24/7/365".....ie; the ethanol, wet mill, and feed mills all have that steady day to day demand that puts a floor under price.....even when we think it doesn't.....

 

once that corn is in the bin you need to be "thinking like a merchant" 

 

 

it's taken awhile to get demand bumped up in several categories, but are now getting to the point it will not take much of a hiccup in 17/18 production to create some sizable volatility.....

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