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Esteemed Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

When you put US/BRA/ARG togother we are producing about 750,000,000 too many bushels a year. Why do we need more production? The market's job is to painfully force a reduction in supply. Shift acres back to pasture or CRP or into development or back into rain forest I suppose.

 

It isn't pretty. It is painful. And, land values are going to reflect the impact in a much bigger way than people think. jmo

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Your figure I doubt  -- 750 million bushels = approx  22 mmt.  "US/BRA/ARG togother we are producing about 750,000,000 too many bushels a year."  that is hogwash

 According to WASDE 2014/15 crop year the world usage and production figures say ending stocks went up less than 16 mmt (close to the largest increase ever)..... yet world production that same year went up nearly 36 mmt to make that possible because there was a total increase in demand over the previous 5 years of 162 mmt... and 2015/16 year the world usage is up another 23 mmt.

 

In 2001 the total world demand for soybeans was 230 mmt for the year with ending stocks at 29 mmt or 12.6% of annual usage---- a 46 day world supply

in 2015 total world demand for soybeans was 440 mmt with a 61mmt ending stock figure.  Thats 13.8% of usage a 50 day supply 

sounds ok but there is another 23mmt increase projected in demand in 2016 and at these prices and export figures, it appears that figure is too low... 

-----------------------

 

If we carry out your logic of -- any carry over is negative to the market-- the price should be approaching 0 because every year there are ending stocks...  

But it looks to me like we are struggling to keep up with ever increasing demand.....

Univ of Illinois says 2014 was to be 289 mmt usage for the world  http://farmdocdaily.illinois.edu/2015/03/some-key-trends-in-the-world-soybean-market.html

WASDE says 2014/15 was 440 mmt.  And usage of 463 this year.

 

 

 

Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

 

Region: World                          
World S-D Soybean Area Harvested Soybean Production Soybean Beginning Stocks Soybean MY Imports Soybean Total Supply Soybean Crush Soybean Feed Waste Dom. Cons. Soybean Food Use Dom. Cons. Soybean Total Dom. Cons. Soybean MY Exports Total Distribution Soybean Ending Stocks % Ending Stocks-to-Use
Marketing Year Million hectares mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt mmt %
1975/1976 32.43 53.63 6.09 19.83 79.55 44.91 3.19 7.36 55.46 15.78 79.55 8.30 15.0%
1976/1977 30.43 45.46 8.30 19.67 73.43 43.22 3.60 7.00 53.82 15.93 73.43 3.69 6.9%
1977/1978 43.42 72.15 3.69 29.34 105.17 60.46 4.42 7.66 72.54 22.51 105.17 10.13 14.0%
1978/1979 47.25 77.41 10.13 25.71 113.24 65.13 5.58 7.95 78.66 24.67 113.24 9.91 12.6%
1979/1980 51.38 93.39 10.17 28.09 131.65 71.37 4.99 8.37 84.72 28.27 131.65 18.66 22.0%
1980/1981 49.76 80.93 18.66 26.22 125.81 69.77 5.38 8.77 83.92 25.34 125.81 16.55 19.7%
1981/1982 49.97 86.08 16.55 29.11 131.74 72.17 5.41 9.73 87.32 29.32 131.74 15.10 17.3%
1982/1983 52.06 93.46 15.10 28.37 136.92 76.03 5.72 9.21 90.96 28.62 136.92 17.35 19.1%
1983/1984 50.75 83.10 17.35 25.49 125.94 71.06 5.42 9.54 86.02 26.22 125.94 13.70 15.9%
1984/1985 53.71 93.06 13.70 25.42 132.18 73.80 5.99 9.20 88.99 25.25 132.18 17.94 20.2%
1985/1986 51.99 97.01 17.94 27.33 142.27 77.20 6.22 9.22 92.64 26.06 142.27 23.58 25.4%
1986/1987 51.58 98.05 23.58 29.07 150.70 85.31 7.92 8.89 102.12 28.55 150.70 20.02 19.6%
1987/1988 54.06 103.65 20.02 28.14 151.82 83.55 8.69 8.86 101.10 30.11 151.82 20.61 20.4%
1988/1989 55.66 95.86 20.61 23.90 140.37 80.66 8.16 8.80 97.62 23.56 140.37 19.19 19.7%
1989/1990 58.36 107.19 19.19 26.56 152.95 87.05 8.87 8.23 104.15 27.28 152.95 21.52 20.7%
1990/1991 54.42 104.29 21.53 25.55 151.36 86.79 8.96 8.87 104.63 25.39 151.36 21.35 20.4%
1991/1992 54.94 107.30 21.27 28.22 156.78 91.51 9.19 8.59 109.29 28.10 156.78 19.39 17.7%
1992/1993 56.60 117.21 19.39 30.05 166.64 96.45 10.50 8.95 115.90 29.30 166.64 21.45 18.5%
1993/1994 60.26 117.58 21.45 28.18 167.21 101.68 9.44 9.70 120.82 27.73 167.21 18.66 15.4%
1994/1995 62.15 137.65 18.66 32.76 189.06 110.52 11.67 10.22 132.41 31.98 189.06 24.68 18.6%
1995/1996 61.06 124.70 24.68 32.46 181.84 111.98 9.88 9.84 131.70 31.64 181.84 18.49 14.0%
1996/1997 62.43 131.94 18.49 35.63 186.07 113.68 10.23 10.10 134.01 36.76 186.07 15.29 11.4%
1997/1998 68.53 157.95 15.29 38.16 211.41 123.18 11.60 10.32 145.10 39.31 211.41 26.99 18.6%
1998/1999 71.30 159.83 26.99 38.55 225.37 134.46 13.09 11.16 158.70 37.93 225.37 28.74 18.1%
1999/2000 71.88 160.31 28.74 45.52 234.57 135.15 12.98 11.18 159.31 45.63 234.57 29.62 18.6%
2000/2001 75.59 175.82 29.62 53.09 258.53 146.42 14.03 11.11 171.55 53.82 258.53 33.16 19.3%
2001/2002 79.61 184.90 33.16 54.36 272.42 157.75 14.92 11.58 184.25 53.01 272.42 35.15 19.1%
2002/2003 81.62 196.92 35.15 62.88 294.96 165.02 14.13 11.93 191.07 61.32 294.96 42.56 22.3%
2003/2004 88.58 186.76 42.56 54.04 283.36 163.52 13.28 12.10 188.90 56.05 283.36 38.41 20.3%
2004/2005 93.35 215.86 38.41 63.56 317.83 175.24 16.13 13.03 204.41 64.75 317.83 48.67 23.8%
2005/2006 93.11 220.81 48.67 64.10 333.58 185.91 16.48 13.37 215.76 63.85 333.58 53.97 25.0%
2006/2007 94.56 236.24 53.97 68.91 359.12 195.52 15.57 13.87 224.97 71.14 359.12 63.02 28.0%
2007/2008 90.85 218.96 63.02 78.40 360.37 202.25 13.35 13.94 229.54 78.32 360.37 52.51 22.9%
2008/2009 96.44 212.03 52.51 77.45 341.99 193.53 14.09 14.19 221.82 77.21 341.99 42.96 19.4%
2009/2010 102.56 260.49 42.96 86.86 390.31 209.56 14.41 14.59 238.55 91.44 390.31 60.31 25.3%
2010/2011 103.36 264.26 60.31 88.78 413.35 221.13 15.48 15.02 251.63 91.70 413.35 70.02 27.8%
2011/2012 103.13 240.32 70.02 93.49 403.83 228.29 15.35 15.36 259.00 92.19 403.83 52.64 20.3%
2012/2013 109.78 268.63 52.64 95.94 417.21 229.96 16.22 15.56 261.74 100.80 417.21 54.67 20.9%
2013/2014 113.00 282.75 54.67 111.78 449.19 241.21 17.45 16.16 274.82 112.70 449.19 61.67 22.4%
2014/2015 118.14 318.57 61.67 122.15 502.38 262.39 20.23 16.74 299.36 125.88 502.38 77.14 25.8%
2015/2016 120.74 320.21 77.14 128.16 525.51 278.04 20.35 17.37 315.75 130.90 525.51 78.87 25.0%
                           

 

 

Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Wait a minute here while we do some math:  current carryover number is 78.87 mmt.

(Given 1 mt = 2204 lbs = 36.73 bu)

78.87 mmt = 2,896,895,100 bu

2,896,895,100 - 750,000,000 = 2,146,895,100 bu carryover. (58.45 mmt)

That's still alot of beans, more than the 2012/2013 carryover.

Did I get the math right?  Can I get those prices back?

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

probably screwed the numbers up a little and I appreciate the help....

But for the life of me I do not understand the logic of any inventory is bad inventory.  

 

The US needs a food shortage in the worst way...

 

la-na-tt-chris-christie-fat-20130508-001.jpg

 

 

Placed for humor purposes only.

Any resembelance to friends or family is purely coincidental.

On second thought maybe this is why we chose this one... Smiley Happy

 

 

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Based on the most current total domestic consumption number 78.87 mmt is only about 3 months supply.

How much of that 78.87 mmt is available for domestic use?

Since Brazil and the US produce a similar amount of soybeans does that mean

we're down to about a 6 weeks domestic supply?

 

That does change the perspective a bit.

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

The complacency of the food supply by the American people astounds me.

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