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Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 18

After the close:

The weekly USDA crop progress report Monday showed the nation’s corn crop is rated at 72% good to excellent, down 1% from last week. The nation's soybean crop was up 1% at 71% ge.

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. corn futures settled 5 1/2 cents lower at $3.71.

 

Nov. soybean futures ended 5 3/4 cents higher at $10.57.

Dec. wheat futures closed 9 3/4 cents lower at $5.54.

 

Dec. soymeal futures closed $1.60 higher at $355.10. Dec. soyoil futures finished $0.12 higher at $33.33.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 165 points higher.

 

Jack Scoville, PRICE Futures Group vice-president, says firmer corn and wheat prices were expected today.  "Beans doing about what I thought, corn and wheat doing the exact opposite." I think we are still factoring in a 14.5 corn crop and 3.83 or 3.85 or something bean crop and I am not sure it is all out there.  So, I guess I still think the market could rally a bit here.  But, how high is high need not be very high as there will most likely be plenty either way and the weather looks wet and mild.  Kind of active to start, but slowing down quick."

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Dec. corn futures are trading 4 1/4 cents lower at $3.72.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 cents higher at $10.55.

Dec. wheat futures are 6 1/2 cents lower at $5.57.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $0.40 higher at $353.90. Dec. soyoil futures are $0.09 higher at $33.30.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.27 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 173 points higher.

 

 

Dustin Johnson, EHedger LLC grain analyst, says the market is focused on technicals and fundamentals. 

 

"I think the September soybeans are gaining strength after the August contract went off the board at such a high level. This is helping the soy complex, as a whole.  Corn is following wheat lower, after hitting a large trendline resistance area.  Wheat was lower from the de-escalation in Ukraine," Johnson says.

 

Helen Pound, Sr. Futures Market Specialist for KCG Futures, says the weather is the market driver Monday.

 

"This week’s weather forecast seems to be supporting the row crop prices as temperatures are expected to be above normal.  A series of scattered showers should offset the warmer temps and provide ideal growing conditions for all areas receiving the rain," Pound wrote in a note to customers Monday.  

 

At least one forecaster expects 85% of the US Midwest to receive beneficial amounts of rain, she writes.  

 

"Weakness in the wheat market can be attributed to the ebb and flow of geo-political worries with a slightly less tense Ukraine/Russia scenario and no upside impact on wheat and corn prices in the Black Sea region," Pound notes.

 

 

Mike

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At 10am:

All markets are lower, now. Corn has turned lower.

 

The Dec. corn futures are trading 2 1/4 cents lower at $3.74.

 

 

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading unchanged at $10.52.

Sep. wheat futures are 9 3/4 cents lower at $5.53.

 

 

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.30 lower at $351.20. Dec. soyoil futures are $1.29 lower at $33.50.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $1.17 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 157 points higher.

 

 

Mike

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At the open:

 

The Dec. corn futures are trading 3/4 of a cent of higher at $3.77.

 

Nov. soybean futures are trading 3 3/4 cents lower at $10.48.

Sep. wheat futures are 8 cents lower at $5.55.

 

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.40 lower at $351.10. Dec. soyoil futures opened $0.05 lower at $33.15.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX Brent crude oil is $1.28 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 90 points higher.

 

Mike

-----------

At 7:55am:

Early calls: Corn is seen 2-4 cents higher, soybeans 1-2 cents lower, and wheat 4-6 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading mostly lower.

Brent Crude Oil=$1.26 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.

Wall Street=Seen higher, with Ukraine fears fading.

World Markets=Europe stocks were higher, Asia/Pacific stocks were mostly higher.

 

 

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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11 Replies
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

mid-morning, Mike.

 

will y'all have any reports from crop scouts this week?

 

thank you.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Setting the crop insurance for hrrw so
Why wouldn't it go down.

But is wheat "wheat? "

Really a disservice to make misleading quotes
At such a critical time.
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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

I witnessed the size of an ear of corn pulled from a central Iowa cornfield, yesterday. It had 18 rows around, about 7 1/2 inches of grain length, and it was tipped back just slightly. It was a beautiful looking ear of corn. The farmer told me that he has figured about a 180-190 bushel per acre yield, for that field.

 

That is my cropscout report.

 

Mike

 

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Any idea of what that area normally produces Mike?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Elcheapo,

 

 I have no idea why mike will not address the hrw issue---------- or for that matter even not discussing it.

But I got something in the normal email this morning that I thought was very interesting and might apply.

FC Stone sent out a set of charts based on the trade volume contrasting electronic trade with floor trade for each major commodity since 2007.

 

it said what we expect ----electronic is the market.  But the visual of contrast shows how quickly the electronic trade has dominated the market.  Floor trade took about three years to fade into a footnote of activity.  The floor trade in Chicago must be a museum with tours showing how it was done back in the old days.

CME's goal was also reached and shows like a sore thumb,  "more volume".   Whether it is international activity or the little guy in the mirror trading a little more for fun cause it's easier, who knows but more volume is.

This is a little rehash but what has been the effect on information, rumor, etc?  I am guessing it does not trickle into the "floor" like it used to.  In fact when the market moves there may be nothing in the information chain but guesses these days.  Which might explain the begging of usda for speculation.  While the gosup of the small trading community stinks as bad as a small town information system.  There is some comfort in knowing at least a slanted half truth.  ----- I wonder if the information chain relied on by us and mike and SF and others has adjusted yet or is struggling yet with the change.  Are sources really sources---- or are we, the folks who trade information transitioning yet in our move into world markets. Or is the information so open and transparent now that it looks unreliable as it always was?  Information overload and lack of information might feel similar.  

There were simpler times.

 

The change smells of rot. ------- One more sign of productivity moving to an electro/mechanical system of replacing expensive and ineffecient human input to inhance the revenue of a few all in the name of effeciency and speed( and of course the envoronment).  I almost used the term "corrupt" along with the "ineffecient" term for the more human trade process, but I am betting the corrupt part stays in a little different form.

 

Where are we when we don't need us anymore??  ---- always comes to mind..

 

Time for the lemmings to all get new I-phones --- sit in a circle and teach the world to sing --- and hope they can afford food and the iphone payments.

 

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

ME: 180-190 central Iowa, pretty average for that ground. Will take a lot of those acres to bring my June water damaged 100-125 bpa farm up to that bin buster crop.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

That farm probably averages more like 150-175. I'd have to ask for sure. But, that would get you in the ballpark. Don't forget that anything south of Des Moines, unless bottom-ground, is not flat.

 

Mike

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

Hobbyfarmer,

 

Oh, I get what you are saying. But, don't be surprised if I report that the combine's monitor, whil in that same field this fall, is reading 200. Those yield formulas can be off to the low side, just as much as they are off to the high side sometimes.

 

Mike

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 18

You've definetly hit the nail on the head with the monitors.  Last year mine said I was harvesting 160+ milo, did the math and it was just a little north of 100.  Instantly I uncoupled the monitor and started searching for the "Calibrated for the USDA by the USDA decal".

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