Floor Talk August 21
At the close:
At the close, the September corn futures closed 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.59 3/4. December futures finished 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.74 1/2.
Sep. soybean futures closed 7 1/4¢ lower at $8.74 1/2. November soybean futures closed 7 1/4¢ lower at $8.86.
Dec. wheat futures ended 14 3/4¢ lower at $5.47 3/4.
Dec. soymeal futures closed $3.30 per short ton lower at $324.90. Dec. soy oil futures finished 0.05¢ higher at 28.59.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.82 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 92 points higher.
At mid-session, the September corn futures 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.60. December futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.74.
Sep. soybean futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $8.77. November soybean futures are 4¢ lower at $8.89.
Dec. wheat futures are 11 3/4¢ lower at $5.50.
Dec. soymeal futures are $2.20 per short ton lower at $328.40. Dec. soy oil futures 0.05¢ higher at 28.93.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.82 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 103 points higher.
In early trading, the September corn futures are unchanged at $3.62. December futures are 1/4¢ higher at $3.76.
Sep. soybean futures are unchanged at $8.81. November soybean futures are unchanged at $8.93.
Dec. wheat futures are 8 1/4¢ lower at $5.53 3/4.
Dec. soymeal futures are $1.80 per short ton lower at $328.80. Dec. soy oil futures 0.14¢ higher at 29.02.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $1.36 higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 78 points higher.
Wheat futures were lower in overnight trading on concerns that Russian shippers will amp up their shipments amid concerns about export limits. Speculation abounds that the government will at some point limit exports, though it says it has no plans to do so, stoking fears that exporters will try to dump their grain on the open market in a bid to ship it before any limits are put in place. Wheat lost 5-7 cents overnight, corn was down about 1 cent and soybeans fell less than a penny overnight. Crop progress again showed declining crop conditions. Export inspections were up week-to-week for soybeans but down for both corn and wheat, according to the USDA. In weather news, the Missouri River is flooding along the Nebraska-Iowa border after excessive rain fell in the area yesterday. More rain is expected this week and possibly into the weekend, the National Weather Service said. Get all the details in today's 3 Big Things.
West Texas Intermediate = up 1.2%.
Brent Crude = up 0.5%
Dollar = down 0.4%
Wall Street = U.S. stock higher pre-market.
World Markets = Global stocks higher overnight.
Re: Floor Talk August 21
I put in a sell order for dec 2019 corn at $4.24/bushel. Will it hit that? Who knows. I hope so, but I'm not counting on it. Nevertheless, I have something on the books. As time goes on I may put in other bids, either higher or lower depending on how I see corn prices developing. It's more likely that I'll have to accept sales at more like $4.10 or $4. One sure hopes it will hit at least that.
The common talk is there will be a lot of corn next year. That means supply will be plentiful and hold prices down. What will bring prices up?
A supply failure somewhere in the world (weather, civil war)
Trade disfunctions (tariffs, war, whatever)
What are the chances of the supply side failures? Aren't they hard to predict? Is there any way to estimate prices when supply problems hit?
I can't figure them out, that's why I put in sell orders at what seem like way high numbers and then watch and tweak them as the year goes on.
I don't like margin calls, but my main issue when selling on the board is will the price be lower when I buy back. That is all I care about, although I'll admit I want the profit to be enough to compensate for any tension or aggravation that margin calls may cause in the meantime. As far as I can tell, that is the price of admission to this business.
I have one major marketing fault (and plenty of smaller ones) - I tend to get in and get out too early. It's cost me money. But being in has made me a lot of money. Kahnemann and Tversky and prospect theory I wish I had more guts.