Floor Talk August 23

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the September corn futures settled 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.46 3/4. December futures settled 5 3/4¢ lower at $3.61.

Sep. soybean futures finished 16¢ lower at $8.42 1/4.  Nov. soybean futures closed 16 1/4¢ lower at $8.54.

Dec. wheat futures closed 3 1/2¢ lower at $5.41 3/4.

Dec. soymeal futures finished $6.70 per short ton lower at $316.50. Dec. soy oil futures closed 0.19¢ lower at 28.37.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.04 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 57 points lower.

Mike

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At 1:00pm:

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities analyst, says that there is too much trepidation about the upcoming harvest.

“A lot of news in the market, the last few weeks, and most of it is supply bearish to the grain prices. Also, at this stage investors are not willing to add any risk premium with harvest around the corner and large yields being reported this past week on both corn and soybeans,” Roose says.

Al Kluis, Kluis Advisors, says the markets face some headwinds.

"Confirmation of the huge US corn and soybean yields across the Midwest has the pressure mounting on prices. We are very close to getting a trade deal done with Mexico. However, the market seems to be more concerned with the increasing soybeans stocks in the US and world," Kluis stated in a daily note to customers. 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the September corn futures are 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.48. December futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.62.

Sep. soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $8.52 1/4.  Nov. soybean futures are 6¢ lower at $8.64 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ lower at $5.43.

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.40 per short ton lower at $320.80. Dec. soy oil futures 0.06¢ lower at 28.50.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.22 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 66 points lower.

Mike

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At 9:40am:

In case you missed it earlier, here are the numbers from today's USDA Export Sales Report.

Corn= 1.227 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 900,000-1,500,000 metric tons.

Soybeans= 1.30 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000-900,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 321,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 150,000-400,000 mt.

Wheat= 239,800 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 500,000-850,000 mt.

What say you?

Mike

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At 9:05am:

In early trading, the September corn futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.47. December futures are 4 3/4¢ lower at $3.62.

Sep. soybean futures are 9 1/2¢ lower at $8.48.  Nov. soybean futures are 9 3/4¢ lower at $8.80 1/2.

Dec. wheat futures are 8 3/4¢ lower at $5.36.

Dec. soymeal futures are $2.70 per short ton lower at $320.50. Dec. soy oil futures 0.24¢ lower at 28.32.

In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.20 lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 14 points lower.

Mike

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Soybeans were again lower overnight after new tariffs on another $16 billion worth Chinese goods went into effect overnight. Beijing responded by adding duties on an equal amount of US items. While they're not directly related to ag, the addition of the tariffs while trade talks are happening in Washington indicate that there's no end in sight for the escalating trade dispute between the countries. Beans were down about 4 cents, corn lost less than a penny and wheat declined 1-2 cents. Ethanol production, meanwhile, rose slightly week-to-week while inventories hit a fresh five-month high. In weather news, the state of Missouri is the crosshairs for two storms -- one in the north that could produce hail and strong winds, and one in the south in which severe weather isn't expected. Check out today's 3 Big Things for all the details. 

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.2%.

Brent Crude = down 0.1%.

Dollar = up 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stocks mixed pre-market.

World Markets = Global stocks mixed overnight.

[cborman11]

Whats the plan as farmers go bankrupt?

[gurly3801539]

Just to be contrary who is harvesting in the midwest confirming huge yields?

[futurestrader92]

The plan for farmers going bankrupt is...... THERE IS NO PLAN! 

The federal government doesn't care about you. 

The market doesn't care about you. 

Money doesn't care about you. 

Wake up to reality and realize no one is forcing you to farm, if it doesn't pay the bills or is a net negative venture then why do you continue??

[illinifarmer]

So, every farmer stops farming tomorrow? What do you trade then,? Oh that’s right the same fabricated electronic or paper that actually isn’t real product to begin with. Then, what the he’ll do you eat with your Huge profits? I just heard some of your heroes get three hots and a cot working that system. Crooks, were not asking to get rich nor have we ever, just earn an honest pay for an honest days work. The fact that your backing support of this broken system tells us exactly what kind of American you are, a greedy pampered ***** that more than likely has had life handed to you on a platter. Should run for president seems thats the end game for guys that never really worked a day in their life. # lock them all up

[cborman11]

Yes according to that little ***** futuretrader who hides behind a computer screen yes thats what farmers are supposed to do. I called him out but my post did not make it so futuretrader ur mouth is writing some bad checks i'm calling you out either be a man and face me or shut ur damn mouth.

[crophugger]

Our leaders or so called role models have no shame for being crooks or filing bankruptsy it's just part of there business model nowadays nothing to see here move along.

[giolucas]

Don’t blame the traders, blame these well thought out tariff wars we are now tangled in.

[BA Deere]

How does one quit or even downside farming without get eaten alive with taxes?  If you "spend less" in anyway, that is seen as "profit" and you get clobbered with taxes, though I suppose if it gets so bad you lose money, you eventually can start spending less, but then the banker comes knocking.   The more I think about it, the choice of a farming career is a "financial suicide mission" where, you`re not supposed to make it back    and I in no way want to make light of the term I just used, in it`s literal meaning.  

Traders make money whether the market goes up or goes down, the farmer is "long" by default unless he follows advice from Mark Gold  and Bob Utterback.  Chip Flory calls  USDA`s Illinois yields B as in B and S as in S and I don`t know maybe this is the year when USDA does get it wrong.   The "stealth drought" satellites show moisture, but a shallow rooted crop can`t reach it, even in the "good areas".  

With all the tweets and pictures of "best crop ever!" sent to Tyne Morgan, I don`t know how we can expect prices anywhere but where they are now.

[Whitesand_Farms]

Ahhh futures trader you are wrong. The markets do care about us. Without farmers signing up their grain with futures the traders would have nothing to trade. I remember back in the 80's in Western Canada most farmers never sold a bushel into the futures markets. They hauled in some grain off the combine and took a spot price and hauled through the year whenever they had bills to pay and needed money. Then a few smart farmers got together and started playing the futures and for a while they made good money. They had all new equipment drove fancy sports cars and then one day they lost their shirts in the markets, they lost everything even their marriages. Enough farmers seen what had happened and stayed away from "gambling" with futures. Fast forward to 10 years ago there were wild swings in the markets and instead of locking in prices for 6 months in advance they changed it to a year in advance. Well some farmers fell hook line and sinker for this and were locking in prices a year in advance and some did well some did ok. But there was still a large majority of older farmers that didn't. So the bean counters came up with another plan. TPA's target pricing. Well now all the elevator companies are pushing these tpa's why? Because the markets need our grain to keep trading. It's today's farmer that thinks we need the markets and futures so he can go to the banker and say this is his cost of production and this is his guaranteed price so he can get more money to keep expanding. "IF" every farmer got together and just hauled in and took spot price for even 1 year. The futures trading pit would crumble and the farmer would start to see a real return on his grain. Believe me when I say this it's not the farmer that needs the markets it's the markets that need the farmer.