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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk August 25

At the close:

At the close, the Sep. corn futures settled are 4¢ lower at $3.23 1/2, while Dec. futures ended 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.32 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures finished are 32 1/2¢ lower at $9.98 1/4, while Nov. soybean futures finished 29 3/4¢ lower at $9.75 1/2. Sept. wheat futures closed 2 3/4¢ lower at $4.01 1/4. Sept. soymeal futures ended $7.20 short ton lower at $324.30. Sept. soyoil futures finished $0.66 lower at 32.91¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.58 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 39 points lower.

 

Jason Ward,Director of Grains and Energy, says the market is digesting higher prospects for U.S. soybean yields.
“Plus, the technical side of the soybean market is showing multiple failed attempts to hurdle $10.20/bu in Nov 16 futures contract. The failed attempts has generated profit-taking by speculators that are holding long trading positions.
Ward adds, “We also have gone 3 consecutive days without seeing daily soybean sales on the daily reporting system. So, on top of all these pod count numbers, reported during this week’s crop tour, (which have been bearish) we are seeing a break by the exporter on the buy side. So, the ebb and flow of big production and big demand continues, and today the production chatter is winning.”
 
Warm weather could be viewed as slightly negative to soybeans, as it will expedite harvest, Ward says. “If the weather turns soybeans quicker (it might be a little impactful on yield though as the crop shuts down and maybe doesn’t fill all those pods),” Ward says.
The one thing everyone agrees on is water would be negative to the crop at this point.
“We are hearing guys saying that any rain from here forward only hurts soybean yields, not helps. So, warm/dry expedites harvest and is price-negative, while warm/wet is positive to price, slowing down harvest and further reducing yields (from a new record).”
 
“Corn has been every day this week, the first 3 days on wheat pressure and today getting caught in the undertow of soybeans,” Ward says.
 

It’s been a tough week for grain producers who are paying very close attention to the Pro Farmer tour and maybe hearing that yields are as big as USDA said in August (for corn) and yet corn has been down every day. Nothing like kicking the good farmer when he’s down, but that is exactly what these depressed markets keep doing.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $3.25, while Dec. futures are 2¢ lower at $3.34 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 25 3/4¢ lower at $10.05, while Nov. soybean futures are 23 1/2¢ lower at $9.81 3/4. Sept. wheat futures are unchanged at $4.04. Sept. soymeal futures are $5.20 short ton lower at $326.30. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.69 lower at 32.88¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.22 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points lower.

 

Mike

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In early trading:

At 9am, the Sep. corn futures are 1 1/4¢ lower at $3.26, while Dec. futures are 34¢ lower at $3.35 per bushel. Sep. soybean futures are 11 3/4¢ lower at $10.19, while Nov. soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ lower at $9.94. Sept. wheat futures are 1¢ lower at $4.03. Sep. soymeal futures are $1.50 short ton lower at $330.00. Sept. soyoil futures are $0.54 lower at 33.03¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0. per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 19 points lower.

 

USDA Weekly Export Sales Report Thursday shows that soybean sales beat expetations, while corn hit the high end.

 

Wheat= 379,700 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of 300,000-625,000 mt.

Corn= 1.13 mmt vs. the trade’s expectations of 850,000-1,300,000 mt.

Soybeans= 2.054 mmt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 1,000,000-1,800,000 mt

 

Mike

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So the crop tour results were, for the most part, disappointing when compared with projections from the USDA, but really, raise your hand if you as growers or traders are surprised. It's obvious that the folks on Jackson Street (or wherever they're trading from these days) weren't taken aback and gasping when they saw the less-than-record numbers from the crop tour, and farmers -- at least several on this board -- have been saying all along that yields wouldn't be as lofty as the government expected. That said, they're still pretty darned good. If prices are any indication, they're even better than traders in Chicago had expected. 

 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.5% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.6% lower.

Dollar = down 0.1%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures lower in overnight trading ahead of Yellen speech tomorrow. 
World Markets = Global stocks decline amid uncertainty.

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 25

Indiana Corn.jpg

 

Whoa! How do you market this crop? A result of the Howard County, Indiana storm, Wednesday night. Photo posted from one of my Twitter followers. This is a shame.

 

Mike

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