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marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Floor Talk August 29

After the close:

 

The Renewable Fuels Association released the latest weekly ethanol production data:

"According to EIA data, ethanol production averaged 819,000 barrels per day (b/d) – or 34.39 million gallons daily.  That is down 4,000 b/d from the week before.  The 4-week average for ethanol production stood at 820,000 b/d for an annualized rate of 12.57 billion gallons. Production appears to have stabilized around 820,000 b/d over the last month, with very little week-to-week variation seen in August."

 

Mike

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At the close:

The Dec. futures corn contract closed 18 cents higher at $8.13 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract finished 30 3/4 cents higher at $17.53. Dec. wheat futures finished 30 1/4 cents higher at $9.05 3/4 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract settled $0.91 higher at $57.30. The Dec. soymeal futures contract finished $8.20 per short ton higher at $530.00.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.70 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 21 points higher.

 

One analyst says, "Yes, wheat is leading on the Russian grain ban talk. I suspect they will increase taxes, but I think after joining the WTO they would be reluctant to ban outright. Plus, the potential Saudi demand from the tender they announced today. Beans are up on China talk and expectations for a strong weekly report tomorrow. And, corn is kind of going along for the ride.

 

Mike

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At 1:20pm:

Corn is up 18 cents, soybeans are up 25 cents, and wheat is up 31 cents. What a rally!

 

Mike

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Early Pre-USDA Sept. 12 Report Estimates:

 

By Alpari (U.S.):

2011-12 U.S. Ending stocks
     Alpari                   Previous USDA
       2012                     2012       2011
Corn   1,100                1,021    1,128
Soybeans 135                  145      215


2012-2013 U.S. Ending stocks?
       Alpari                 Previous USDA Outlook
        2013                        2013
Corn     525                         650
Soybeans 105                         115
Wheat    690                         698


2011-12 World Reserves?
     Alpari            Previous USDA
       2012               2012
Corn  134.50            135.97
Soybeans  51.00           51.94

2012-13 World Reserves?
        Alpari                 Previous USDA
        2013                       2013
Corn    121.50                    123.33
Soybeans 52.50                     53.38
Wheat   176.25                    177.17

2012-13 U.S. Crop Production
                               Previous USDA Estimates
                                  Millions of Bushels
         Alpari                           012           2011
Corn   10.100                     10,779    12,358
Soybeans  2.510                    2,692     3,056
All Wheat   2,214                  2,268     1,999
All Winter    1,640                1,683     1,494
Spring Wheat 490                     500       455
Durum        84                           86           50

 

I noticed the U.S. corn production number is near that 10.0 bill. bu. figure but still higher. What do you think about the estimates? Are they too high, too low, or about right?

 

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. futures corn contract is trading 1/4 of a cent higher at $8.00 1/4. The Nov. soybean contract is trading 5 cents higher at $17.27. Dec. wheat futures are trading 11 cents higher at $8.87 per bushel. The Dec. soyoil futures contract is trading $0.22 higher at $56.61. The Dec. soymeal futures contract is trading $0.80 per short ton higher at $522.60.


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.56 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 6 points higher.

 

Mike

--------

 

At 8:00am:

--Friday is the first Notice day for Sept. futures contracts. Delivery expectations for corn, soybeans and wheat are between 0-50,000.

 

Mike

---------

At 7:20am:

--Saudia Arabia tenders to buy 550,000 tons of Hard Wheat for Dec. & Feb. delivery.

--Japan seeks 320,000 tons of feed wheat.

---Russia has harvested 61% of their grain, or about 53.4 mmt with an avg. yield of 1.92 tons/hectare. This comparees to 60.3 mmt of grain harvested at this time last year with an avg. yield of 2.63 tons/hectare, according to the Dow Jones Newswire Wednesday.

--Ukraine has harvested a little over 60% of this year's  grain. The avg. yields are slightly below a year ago.

 

Mike

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At 6:00am:

Early calls: Corn 7-8 cents higher, soybeans 8-10 cents higher, and wheat 12-14 cents higher.

 

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading higher.
Crude Oil=$0.69 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen opening lower, ahead of today's GDP estimate for the 2nd quarter. Also, the market prepares for this week's speeches from Fed Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke and the European Central Bank's president at the world summit in Jackson Hole, Wyoming.

World=Mostly lower.

 

More in a minute,

 

Mike

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18 Replies
marketeye
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

The Russian Food Security Council meets Friday. There are whispers in the trade that Russia will announce a ban on grain exports to slow cash market prices. Traders around the globe will be eyeing Friday's meeting. What do you think?

 

Mike

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roarintiger1
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

If that happens, one would have to look for wheat to lead the next charge higher, wouldn't one?  It could signal the US producer to increase wheat acreage even further than many are going to anyways. Of course that would lead to less corn and soybean acres next year as well.  

I'll be back later, gotta put a call in to my seed wheat dealer......................Smiley Wink

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

Good call roarintiger1,

 

I believe it has started, at least for a few days.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

2010 all over again only at a new plateau.....
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sixtysixx
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

roarintiger1 did you find the seed that you wanted? paid for mine on july 17th and some of the numbers were sold out already.

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Mizzou_Tiger
Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

Soya seem to be lagging a bit today.......is there some that honestly believe this hurricane is going to do some good moisture wise for the 2012 soya crop.....I am sure a few areas might benefit.....however the fat lady is on her encore......game over......

Maybe why corn is up so much......damage in field to crop is salt in a huge wound.......
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c-x-1
Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

repeat of 2010 using corns run % wise = 1553-c, 3360-s

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sw363535
Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

Ya cx1,

we are at a point so far out of the "norm" and out of historic trends that you can generate a lot of odd projections.  I find myself folowing myself around saying "Is that in the relm of economic possibility?"--almost every time I look back at historical charts.

 

Thanks for the lead roarintiger1,   someone needed to kick the market in the pants. Smiley Happy 

Actually I think corn and wheat are sisters for a while.  And maybe for a long while if beans are going to take over the Brazil acres as reports are saying.  And I can accept that projection, a massive move to corn acres down there would need a lot more investment capital and if they have problems getting beans to port, think what wall to wall corn would do to logistics.

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67guy
Veteran Contributor

Re: Floor Talk August 29

There are actually a lot of soybeans that will benefit to some degree from big rains should they materialize.  Unfortuneately there are a lot that won't either.  Beans in the western belt are probably beyond help.  Some in the central and eastern could still get a boost from rains.  Corn will benefit too unless it is already blacklayered, harvested, or destroyed, which a lot of it is.  More potential for this hurricane to do harm than good on midwestern crops.  This bean market could get real interesting this winter.

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