Floor Talk August 29

[c-x-1]

sw, i know what u mean re: looking @ charts. i did a little exercise w/ charts other day & it helped me visualize.

looked @ weekly beans from '68-'75, then went current wkly back to '06 or so, but what i did next made me see it.

squenched up y axis (beans) so that SAME vertical % took up y axis as it did jan '73 backwards - LOOKS THE SAME!!

then i also remember a couple household items my parents bought around mid '70's. 1974 Olds Cutlass Supreme - $3800.00

the first Sony Trinitron ALL COLOR 15 inch '75 or '76 - $600.00. so, yes, economically it's entirely in line w/ historical norms.

[c-x-1]

world reserves #'s are misleading in & of themselves. have to consider current usage now compared to historical and world end stocks to get economic picture

[marketeye]

c-x-1,

A U.S. Grains Council person sees the U.S. corn crop bigger than expected. What do you think? Must be that hurricane rain that has folks, all of a sudden talking about a bigger crop. Here is the full story.

Mike

[c-x-1]

MT - seems to be pretty large diameter-wise storm. we're getting up to 35 mph NW gusts in H-town 350 mi from eye - no rain, ptly cldy.

if it maintains sustained +35 gust to 50 or so through Ky, Tn, southern Mo, IL could knock over weaker stalks, i'd think.

[c-x-1]

thanks for story Mike.

maybe the grains council guy is heavily long. i suppose stories ARE for SPINNING. also, for end users....so they won't be too scared off from using?

concensus seems to be of storm probably doing more harm than good. i'd written earlier that drought bustin' can be just as ferocious as drought creatin'.

saw headline on weather.com La getting more rain than Katrina....so if too much wind and/or floodin'???

i'd say the bigger the overall area that gets double digit rain as she, uh, he moves N, the worse.

anyone who needs a refresher on reality of world grains economically, just watch AND listen to pre USDA report briefing again...Listen very carefully to the #'s (not prices) he gives. play back if you have to. DO the math. it's all there. Basse who say's he can't make the #'s work in balance sheet. i don't think he's spinning...just might be honest. 

c-x-1

[sw363535]

Two problems Mike,

We will never know what the actual harvest bushels, as well as acres, were.  And the rosey political glasses will be extensively used.  "don't spook the sheep".

The best corn will mature slower------at a more normal pace from the half of the crop that died prematurely---yields will look better at the end of harvest.  No matter how small the crop is.  So it will look like the harvest supports the grain council position------which obviously has little real research at this point.

[patriot3031376]

Julius Schaaf is sadly mistaken. He needs to get out of his own backyard and look around. By the way, why is the US Grains Council in Phuket? I will make sure my checkoff board hears my views on this one.

[highyields]

In SENE most corn making in that 40-60 bu/ac yield so far.   Dont' expect much over 80 bushel avearge.  

concerning the ethanol production number is that "pipeline" production?   And I wonder if production will increase with increase bushels coming due to harvest?  

Another thing China seems to want to buy beans no matter what.  Well China buy corn no matter what?    

[c-x-1]

so China believes bean prices going higher. simple. Golden rule: he who has the most gold wins (more power).

we'll see about corn. they supposedly had a "smaller" crop.