Floor Talk August 30

[marketeye]

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At 10:45am:

Ahead of the USDA Sept. 12 Report, Walsh Trading has released pre-report estimates. What do you think?

2012-13 U.S. Ending stocks

Corn = 719    
Soybeans = 125

2013-2014 U.S. Ending stocks
            
Corn = 1.790
Soybeans= 200          
Wheat = 551


2013-14 World Reserves
          
Corn= 150.80  
Soybeans= 71.80
Wheat = 173.40

2013-14 U.S. Crop Production
                              
     Walsh Estimates  
Corn = 13.580
Soybeans = 3.150

Mike

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At mid-session:

The Sep. corn futures contract is trading 6 cents lower at $4.90 per bushel. Dec. corn futures contract is trading 2 cents lower at $4.79. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 8 cents lower at $14.22, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 17 cents lower at $13.51. Dec. wheat futures are trading 2 cents higher at $6.56 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $6.50 per short ton lower at $423.60. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.33 lower at $43.87. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.77 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 42 points lower.

"I think we are seeing some liquidation selling by specs.  The farmer is quiet here and in Brazil today.  There is not much buy side around either.  Everyone is worried about the weather for finishing the crops and with good reason.  Hearing premature death showing up in Illinois and Iowa now.  Also, the world political scene is pushing people to take money off the table.  Some in the trade looking at seasonals, we have topped out around this time over the last few years as the buy side pulls back waiting for the harvest, but this year could be different with the weather.  So, a big weekend coming and fireworks likely Monday night after a fairly low volume trade today."

Mike

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At the open:

The Dec. corn futures contract is trading 3 cents lower at $4.78. The Sep. soybean futures contract is trading 9 cents lower at $14.21, new-crop Nov. soybeans are trading 14 cents lower at $13.54. Dec. wheat futures are trading 1 cent higher at $6.55 per bushel. The Dec. soymeal futures are trading $4.20 per short ton lower at $425.90. The Dec. soyoil futures are trading $0.26 lower at $43.97. 


In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil is $0.92 per barrel lower, the dollar is higher and the Dow Jones Industrials are 11 points lower.

Mike

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At 8:15am:

--USDA announces Friday that China bought 110,000 tons of U.S. soybeans for 2013-14 delivery.

Mike

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At 7:25am:

--Ukraine to harvest 32.75 million tons of grain, as of Aug. 30, up on year.

--Kazakhstan harvests 2.07 million tons, as of Aug. 29, up on year

--Russia harvests 59.9 million tons, as of Aug. 29.

Mike

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At 7:20am:
Early calls: Corn is seen 1-2 cents lower (old-crop), soybeans 9-10 cents lower (old-crop), and wheat 1-2 cents higher. Meanwhile, new-crop corn 2-4 cents lower and soybeans are seen 14-15 cents lower.

Trackers:
Overnight grain, soybean markets=Trading lower.
Crude Oil=$0.62 per barrel lower.
Dollar=Higher.
Wall Street=Seen higher.

World Markets=Asia/Pacific stocks were higher, Europe stocks lower.

More in a minute,

Mike

[puffster]

Good morning Mike.Forecast here in eastern kansas is for another 3 days of 100 plus heat.  No rain of course, but having sold 30% of bean crop already at a cash price of 13.45 (good or bad) i will not get spooked today when the traders get out for the holiday.  Scouting fields last evening, some pods on ground..blooming stopped and a lot dropped...beans have a pale cast to them now.  So maybe 30% might be optimistic..I will turn off markets and haul in more hay and relax.good luck to all, and have a great holiday

[c-x-1]

....looks like somma the rain's been taken out of forecast this weekend for IA?

DON'T worry ECIN Jenny's not gonna make you go a FULL month w/out rain - I saw some yer yonder way in a few days in my new crystal ball.

[roarintiger1]

I read this morning that 52% of USDA's predicted 2013 soybean crop exports have already been sold.   Of course it goes without saying that at any time China could cancel their orders. However, the bargain hunting in the bean market might have alreay taken place.   

[tree fmr]

Marketeye, I think you hit the hornets nest with a stick! End of the year, world stocks will be high and those in the heartland will wonder how they lost revenue. BTW, hold the powder till u see the whites of the eyes!
Enjoy the 3 day weekend !!

[Hobbyfarmer]

I think the Skittles factory will be working overtime. Hope they already got their corn sweetner bought. Must have been a good year for Unicorns too.

They are living the dream. WARNING nightmare dead ahead.

The World's surplus stocks will be 1400 miles by truck in the interior of Brazil but they are surplus none the less. Don't mind that 500 miles of that is dirt road.

Have a great weekend.