At the close:
At the close, the Dec. corn futures ended 1 1/2¢ lower at $3.57 3/4. March corn futures settled 1 3/4¢ lower at $3.67 1/2.
Nov. soybean futures settled 3¢ higher at $9.53 1/2. January soybean futures settled 3 1/2¢ higher at $9.59 3/4.
Dec. wheat futures finished 3¢ higher at $5.52 3/4.
Dec. soymeal futures closed $2.80 per short ton higher at $312.50.
Dec. soy oil futures closed $0.38 cent lower at 32.86¢ per pound.
In the outside markets, the NYMEX crude oil market is $0.16 per barrel lower at $42.81. The U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 218 points lower.
Mike
-------
At 9:50am:
Greg Lumsden, Cargill MarketGuide, says that strength in the ag markets over the last week has been a combination fund repositioning, growing demand, and general lowering of yield estimates by analysts.
“The rally is particularly impressive as this is a seasonally weak timeframe and is usually coupled with forced farmer selling at the end of August. In spite of these trends the funds have begun to aggressively cover their short positions and effectively exchange positions with farmers who have been selling," Lumsden says.
The main catalyst for this rally is perceived lower production than we were looking at a few weeks ago, he says.
"Most analyst heavily weight condition score models and they have dropped sharply over the last few weeks. Throw in storm damage in IA and a dry forecast to finish the crop and most yield estimates have gone from 178-182+ to 175-178 with a downward bias. The market is also taking notice of very strong Chinese demand which will also eat into our ending stocks numbers," Lumsden says.
Lumsden added, "All-in-all, we certainly aren’t in a “tight” situation but the ending stocks picture just got more interesting and will bring in more risk premium for South America’s growing season and our planting in the spring. Renewed volatility in ag markets and general belief that basis will be firm this winter/spring should bring more opportunities than our farmers have seen in a while. For farmers, the key will be to maintain discipline and take advantage of rallies and not get blinded by new friendly market inputs."
At 8:45am:
Farm markets to end the month with a bang.
See Monday's markets here.
Thanks,
Mike
