Floor Talk August 31

[Tony_Dreibus]

At the close:

At the close, the Dec. corn futures finished 12 1/4¢ higher at $3.57 3/4, while March futures finished 12 1/4¢ higher at $3.70 1/2. Nov. soybean futures finished 12¢ higher at $9.45 1/4, Jan. soybean futures finished 12¢ higher $9.54 3/4. September wheat futures ended 4 3/4¢ higher at $4.34 1/2. Dec. soy meal futures closed $2.10 per short ton higher at $299.50. Dec. soy oil futures settled $0.37 higher at 35.06¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.24 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is lower, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 45 points higher.

Mike

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At mid-session:

At mid-session , the Dec. corn futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $3.53, while March futures are 8¢ higher at $3.66. Nov. soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ higher at $9.44, Jan. soybean futures are 11 1/4¢ higher $9.54. September wheat futures are 3 1/2¢ higher at $4.33. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.10 per short ton higher at $299.50. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.40 higher at 35.09¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.19 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 40 points higher.

Mike

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At 10:45am:

Deanna Hawthorne-Lahre, StatFutures co-founder and trader, says today’s rally is sparked by seasonal patterns.
“This is a seasonal and classic bounce for the end of Aug. The ruthless break in corn with heavy liquidation of open interest has this market cleaned up and ready to find some levels that appear better at the moment, but we still sit a month away from the gut slot,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.
She adds, “Heavy deliveries in the Minneapolis wheat market signals the final throwing of the sink at this thing and shows that we can let up on this sell-off thing and trade a bit.
China is buying into the soybean market at the $9.50 per bushel price level, she says.
“Which makes sense against what its done the past couple of crops. Overall, the market seems friendly, but not getting carried away, as this is more of a pressure release than a v-shaped bounce,” Hawthorne-Lahre says.

What say you?

Mike

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At 10:17am:

If you missed it, earlier, Thursday, the USDA released its Weekly Export Sales Report.

Wheat= 566,000 metric tons vs. the trade’s expectations of between 300,000-600,000 mt.

Corn= 992,600 mt.  vs. the trade’s expectations of between 450,000-1,000,000 mt.

Soybeans= 1.682 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 650,000-1,500,000 mt.

Soybean meal= 420,600 mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of between 100,000-250,000 mt. 

Separately, the USDA announced fresh soybean demand from China.


Private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture export sales of 132,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2017/2018 marketing year.
The marketing year for soybeans began Sept. 1.

Mike

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At 9am:

In early trading , the Dec. corn futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $3.48, while March futures are 2 1/2¢ higher at $3.60 3/4. Nov. soybean futures are 8 1/2¢ higher at $9.41, Jan. soybean futures are 8¢ higher $9.51. September wheat futures are 2 3/4¢ higher at $4.32. Dec. soy meal futures are $2.10 per short ton higher at $299.50. Dec. soy oil futures are $0.29 higher at 34.98¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.64 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 73 points higher.

Mike

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Corn, beans and wheat futures were all little changed overnight ahead of the long weekend. Investors and hedgers and anybody else who deal with the board don't want to move their positions too much with weather and yield uncertainty at this point, at least not before Labor Day. Only Chicago wheat moved more than a penny in overnight trading, and that was a 1 1/4-cent gain. In other news, the USDA's Economic Research Service was out with a report showing that it expects farm incomes to rise in 2017 after three years of losses. While that's good news, 2016 was a pretty dismal year with income at the lowest in a decade. Finally, Tropical Storm Harvey is moving north and bringing its devastating rains to parts of Arkansas, Kentucky and Tennessee today. Several flood watches and warnings are in effect, and strong winds with tornadoes are possible, according to the National Weather Service. Stay safe out there! 

Here's what happened overnight:

Brent Crude Oil = up 0.6%

West Texas Intermediate = up 0.7%

Dollar = up 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in pre-market trading.

World Markets = Global stocks higher on strong Chinese economic data. 

[Blacksandfarmer]

I read on another ag site that parts of the corn belt could see a frost next week. This crop needs time that it don't have.

[timetippingpt]

Yeah, and the forecast for just north of the harvey line is zero rain for the next 15 days, not the

right way to finish the crop, but I'm just a delusional farmer.

[JimMeade]

There is a chance that the sun won't rise in the east tomorrow, but it's a pretty low chance.

The chances of a frost in the corn belt are also low.  

How does it affect marketing?  Does it mean we should be holding off on sales and buying calls or futures?  If any of us strongly believe a frost is coming, those are attractive options (pun intended).  I think I'll pass.

[nutlug]

Jim, I appreciate the way you try to look at the events occuring or being talked about and try to bring the discussion around to what marketing action we should be considering as a results. Not enough if that happens in this forum in my opinion.

[JimMeade]

Varying outlooks on weather for this fall - 3 views.

http://www.midwestproducer.com/news/regional/fall-forecasts-all-over-the-maps/article_b661559a-8da9-...