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Veteran Contributor

Floor Talk August 4

At the close:

 

At the close, the Sep. corn futures settled 4 1/4¢ lower at $3.20 3/4, Dec. futures finished 4¢ lower at $3.31 per bushel. August soybean futures ended unchanged at $9.90 1/2, while Nov. soybean futures closed 1 1/4¢ higher at $9.56 3/4. Sept. wheat futures closed 7¢ lower at $4.03 1/4. August soymeal futures finished $0.80 short ton lower at $329.70. August soyoil futures closed $0.24 higher at 30.54¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $1.02 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 24 points lower.

 

Mike

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At mid-session:

 

At mid-session, the Sep. corn futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.25, Dec. futures are 1/2¢ higher at $3.35 per bushel. August soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $9.98, while Nov. soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $9.63. Sept. wheat futures are 2 1/4¢ lower at $4.08. August soymeal futures are $2.20 short ton higher at $332.70. August soyoil futures are $0.49 higher at 30.91¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.72 per barrel higher, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 7 points higher.

 

Pete Meyer, PIRA Energy’s Grain Analyst, says that despite decent export sales of late, Thursday’s seem to be tough days for these markets.  
“The various crop tours that are out there, currently, are offering a mixed bag of results,” Meyer says. “And while the market seems to be discounting the 175 national yield being bantered about, it knows an increase in yield for corn, and possibly soybeans, is just a week away in the August WASDE.”

 

Jason Roose, U.S. Commodities grain analyst, says demand and weather, combined with the upcoming USDA Report all are driving this trade.

"Mixed market today in the grains , focus is still on potential large us supplies and less focus on demand with positioning ahead of next weeks USDA crop report . Large exports continue to give the grains minor support, US dollar and world weather will be other factors moving the markets," Roose says.

 

Mike

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At 10:20am:

The MDA Weather crop tour has found the latest yield potential in Iowa:

 

 

Webster County, IA: 203.1 bu/ac

 

Calhoun County, IA: 147.3 bu/ac

 

Sac County, IA: 177.2 bu/ac

 

What say you? Too high, too low, or about right?

 

Mike

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If you don't think the U.S. corn and soybean products are flying off of the shelves, you better take another look. This just happended today, alone.

 

On Thursday, private exporters reported to the U.S. Department of Agriculture the following activity:

  • Export sales of 252,000 metric tons of soybeans for delivery to China during the 2016/2017 marketing year; and
  • Export sales of 129,000 metric tons of corn for delivery to unknown destinations during the 2016/2017 marketing year.

The marketing year for corn and soybeans began Sept. 1.

 

Separately, the USDA's Weekly Export Sales Report indicated corn and soybean sales at the high end of expectations.

  • Wheat= 370,500 metric tons. vs the trade’s expectations of 350,000-650,000 mt.
  • Corn= 1.22 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 800,000-1.2 million mt.
  • Soybeans= 1.67 million mt. vs. the trade’s expectations of 1.0-1.8 million mt.

Mike

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At the open:

 

In early trading, the Sep. corn futures are unchanged at $3.25, Dec. futures are 1/4¢ lower at $3.34 per bushel. August soybean futures are 7¢ higher at $9.97, while Nov. soybean futures are 8 1/4¢ higher at $9.63. Sept. wheat futures are 1 3/4¢ higher at $4.12. August soymeal futures are $2.50 short ton higher at $333.00. August soyoil futures are $0.24 higher at 30.54¢ per pound.  In the outside markets, the Brent crude oil market is $0.13 per barrel lower, the U.S. dollar is higher, and the Dow Jones Industrials are 31 points higher.

 

Mike

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Beans are getting a boost from large export sales in the past week as buyers take advantage of lower prices and a weaker dollar. Sales in the past six days alone have totaled more than 2 million metric tons. China bought 441,000 tons, the USDA said, and unknown buyers bought another 556,000 tons, adding to the nearly 1.4 million tons sold in the prior five days. Hopefully we can see this streak continue. 

Here's what happened overnight:

 

Brent Crude Oil = 0.9% lower.
West Texas Intermediate Crude Oil = 0.4% lower.

Dollar = up 0.3%.

Wall Street = U.S. stock futures higher in overnight trading.
World Markets = Global stocks improve as Bank of England cuts rates. .

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7 Replies
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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

2,397,000 tons divided by 11,200 tons/train =214 unit trains

 

Local gavilon terminal just texted "free  price later" don't have to sell til Oct 31, 16

 

I gotta better idea, ... let's run the price up then I'll deliever AFTER I SELL. 

 

I'd think it'd be a good thing to let them have the equivalent of a short crop....looks like they sold something they didn't have.

 

Didn't we just hear the shippers sold more Brazilian crop then there was and were paying cash money for that mistake there?

 

Did/are they doing it here too? Might be a profit to be made yet this year...just a little more patience.

 

Yep I've still got a couple train car loads, I'm interested in hauling in about $3.50 above today's prices...

 

No sympathy for them at this address....

 

 

 

 

 

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

Btw, in terms we all know that amount is 87.9 million bu of beans, kind of took the peak off of the carry over pile doesn't it?

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

If the CBOT doesn't do it the price can still change...it's called basis I have no problem with a positive basis Smiley Wink  Smiley Happy

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Veteran Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

Yet another example of market disconnect
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Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

So the market doesn't care what the crop tours are finding, the bottom line is what USDA puts out next week?  Some one said a long time ago that our "futures market" is a lagging indicator of whats going on in the world.  I'm starting to believe that more and more.  A competitor says they need to buy corn from us but everything is hunky dory.  That's my rant for the day.  

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Honored Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

What carryover pile?

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Senior Advisor

Re: Floor Talk August 4

Apropos of almost nothing, our local coop has said they will not pile grain outside this year.  They'll turn it away.

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